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Updated October 19, 2026 · Category: Economy & Fed · Market end date: December 31, 2026
As of October 19, 2026 at 12:50 UTC, the leading outcome is 75,000-80,000 at 41.5%, followed by 65,000-70,000 at 19.4%, 70,000-75,000 at 14%. The market has $21.8K in total volume and $3.7K in the last 24 hours.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| 75,000-80,000 | 41.5% | +0.2 pts | $7.3K |
| 65,000-70,000 | 19.4% | +5.7 pts | $637 |
| 70,000-75,000 | 14% | -15.5 pts | $10.1K |
| <55,000 | 12.8% | +1.3 pts | $1.3K |
| 60,000-65,000 | 11.3% | +0.4 pts | $777 |
| 55,000-60,000 | 9.5% | — | $424 |
| 85,000+ | 8.3% | — | $677 |
| 80,000-85,000 | 5.7% | +0.3 pts | $584 |
Total volume $21.8K · 24h volume $3.7K · Liquidity $16.8K. Prices are Polymarket YES-share prices read as probabilities; they are not executable quotes.
■ 75,000-80,000 ■ 65,000-70,000 ■ 70,000-75,000 · 30-day price history (12-hour points)
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This market will resolve according to the official closing price for the Nikkei 225 (NI225) on the final trading day of December 2026, reported in JPY.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the Nikkei 225 (^N225) "Close" prices available at (https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EN225/history/), published under "Historical Data.”
Summary of the market's published rules. The rules on Polymarket control settlement; check them there before relying on any outcome: open this market on Polymarket.
As of October 19, 2026 at 12:50 UTC, the leading outcome is 75,000-80,000 at 41.5%, followed by 65,000-70,000 at 19.4%, 70,000-75,000 at 14%. The market has $21.8K in total volume and $3.7K in the last 24 hours.
The event's listed end date is December 31, 2026. Each outcome settles under the market's written rules, summarized on this page, which can differ from the end-date field.
They are the displayed prices of each outcome's YES share on Polymarket. A price of 60¢ implies roughly a 60% chance. This page refreshes the numbers twice a day, so they are not live quotes.
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