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Updated October 4, 2026 · Category: Politics & Elections · Market end date: January 1, 2027
As of October 4, 2026 at 00:50 UTC, the leading outcome is By December 31 at 7.0%. The market has $22.2K in total volume and $419 in the last 24 hours.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| By December 31 | 7.0% | -0.5 pts | $7.8K |
| By June 30 (settled) | 0.0% | -0.6 pts | $12.8K |
| By July 31 (settled) | 0.0% | -0.8 pts | $1.5K |
Total volume $22.2K · 24h volume $419 · Liquidity $11.7K. Prices are Polymarket YES-share prices read as probabilities; they are not executable quotes.
■ By December 31 · 30-day price history (12-hour points)
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This market will resolve to “Yes” if a motion of no-confidence against Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez or the sitting Government of Spain is voted upon in the Congress of Deputies of Spain by June 30, 2026 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A “motion of no-confidence” refers to a formal motion of censure under Spain’s constitutional procedures, including a candidate to replace Sanchez as Prime Minister. Informal calls for Sánchez to resign, requests for a confidence vote, parliamentary criticism, or other non-binding political statements will not qualify.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the government of Spain; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Summary of the market's published rules. The rules on Polymarket control settlement; check them there before relying on any outcome: open this market on Polymarket.
More odds by topic: Politics odds
As of October 4, 2026 at 00:50 UTC, the leading outcome is By December 31 at 7.0%. The market has $22.2K in total volume and $419 in the last 24 hours.
The event's listed end date is January 1, 2027. Each outcome settles under the market's written rules, summarized on this page, which can differ from the end-date field.
They are the displayed prices of each outcome's YES share on Polymarket. A price of 60¢ implies roughly a 60% chance. This page refreshes the numbers twice a day, so they are not live quotes.
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