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Updated October 20, 2026 · Category: Geopolitics & World · Market end date: October 31, 2026
As of October 20, 2026 at 00:50 UTC, Polymarket traders price Nothing at 96.2% (Something 3.8%), with $20.8K traded in total and $1.4K in the last 24 hours.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nothing | 96.2% | -0.2 pts | $20.8K |
| Something | 3.8% | +0.2 pts | — |
Total volume $20.8K · 24h volume $1.4K · Liquidity $16.9K. Prices are Polymarket YES-share prices read as probabilities; they are not executable quotes.
■ Nothing ■ Something · 30-day price history (12-hour points)
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This market will resolve to “Something” if any of the following conditions are met between October 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET:
- WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hits ↑ $150
- Bitcoin all time high
- Any G7 leader out (Carney, Macron, Merz, Meloni, Takaichi, Burnham, Trump)
- US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal
- Russia x Ukraine Ceasefire
- Putin out as President of Russia
- Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president
- Fed rate cut
- Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Nothing”.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/market_products/NEH/NEH_Oct_26.pdf
Summary of the market's published rules. The rules on Polymarket control settlement; check them there before relying on any outcome: open this market on Polymarket.
More odds by topic: Geopolitics odds
As of October 20, 2026 at 00:50 UTC, Polymarket traders price Nothing at 96.2% (Something 3.8%), with $20.8K traded in total and $1.4K in the last 24 hours.
The event's listed end date is October 31, 2026. Each outcome settles under the market's written rules, summarized on this page, which can differ from the end-date field.
They are the displayed prices of each outcome's YES share on Polymarket. A price of 60¢ implies roughly a 60% chance. This page refreshes the numbers twice a day, so they are not live quotes.
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