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Updated September 23, 2026 · 172 live markets · refreshed twice a day
As of September 23, 2026 at 18:01 UTC, Polymarket lists 172 live Geopolitics markets with $5.68M traded in the last 24 hours. The most active is Brazil Presidential Election (Flávio Bolsonaro 58.9%), followed by US announces end of Iranian blockade? (By December 31 61.9%), Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control? (By December 31 5.5%).
Wars, ceasefires, sanctions, diplomacy and leadership changes around the world. Every live market on the topic is below, with the leading outcome's probability, its 24-hour change, trading volume and end date.
| Market | Leading outcome | 24h change | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brazil Presidential Election | Flávio Bolsonaro 58.9% | -0.2 pts | $464.5K | Oct 4, 2026 |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade? | By December 31 61.9% | -2.5 pts | $458.4K | Jan 1, 2027 |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control? | By December 31 5.5% | — | $432.6K | Jan 1, 2027 |
| Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026 | Sudan's Emergency Response Rooms 14.4% | +0.8 pts | $338.2K | Apr 1, 2027 |
| Will Xi Jinping visit US? | By December 31 99.9%+ | +0.2 pts | $328.2K | Jan 1, 2027 |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? | Yes 20.5% | -4.5 pts | $275.3K | Jan 1, 2027 |
| US-Iran ceasefire continues? | Through September 25 97.4% | -0.5 pts | $231.9K | Oct 31, 2026 |
| Next French Presidential Election | Marine Le Pen 38.4% | — | $190.0K | Jan 1, 2028 |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | Yes 13.5% | -1.0 pts | $183.1K | Jan 1, 2027 |
| Prime Minister of Israel after the next election? | Gadi Eizenkot 52.8% | -0.3 pts | $172.2K | Oct 27, 2026 |
| Which cities will Russia enter by December 31? | Druzkhivka 40% | -3.5 pts | $163.6K | Jan 1, 2027 |
| Where will Trump and Putin meet next in 2026? | China 65.5% | -6.0 pts | $140.9K | Jan 1, 2027 |
| Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts? | By October 31 74.8% | -10.7 pts | $128.6K | Oct 1, 2026 |
| Putin out as President of Russia? | By June 30, 2027 11.5% | — | $119.4K | Jul 1, 2027 |
| Venezuela leader end of 2026? | Nicolás Maduro 58.6% | +0.1 pts | $117.9K | Jan 1, 2027 |
| NATO x Russia military clash? | By December 31 30.5% | -2.0 pts | $115.2K | Jan 3, 2027 |
| Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed? | By December 31 17.5% | — | $101.5K | Jan 1, 2027 |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement? | By December 31, 2027 72.5% | +1.5 pts | $88.8K | Jul 1, 2027 |
| Who will attend a round of US-Iran peace talks by December 31? | Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani 79% | +49.5 pts | $83.7K | Jun 23, 2027 |
| Xi Jinping out before 2027? | Yes 4.5% | +0.2 pts | $69.0K | Jan 1, 2027 |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues? | Through September 30 95.7% | -1.1 pts | $60.1K | Dec 31, 2026 |
| Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany? | By December 31, 2026 13% | -1.5 pts | $59.8K | Jan 1, 2027 |
| Will Russia announce a new forced mobilization? | By December 31 27.5% | +0.5 pts | $54.7K | Jan 1, 2027 |
| Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 2nd Place | Flávio Bolsonaro 70.5% | +1.0 pts | $52.6K | Oct 5, 2026 |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30? | Yes 0.7% | +0.1 pts | $50.6K | Oct 1, 2026 |
| Next Prime Minister of Sweden | Magdalena Andersson 87.5% | +0.5 pts | $42.9K | Jul 1, 2027 |
| Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026? | Yes 2.1% | -1.1 pts | $37.3K | Jan 1, 2027 |
| US-Yemen ceasefire continues? | Through September 22 98.6% | -0.7 pts | $36.9K | Oct 31, 2026 |
| Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? | Yes 4.0% | — | $36.6K | Jan 1, 2027 |
| Iran leadership change? | By June 30, 2027 25.5% | — | $36.4K | Jul 1, 2027 |
| Bulgaria Presidential Election | Iliana Iotova 70.5% | +3.0 pts | $34.6K | Oct 25, 2026 |
| Maduro Prison Time? | No prison time 54.5% | +0.5 pts | $34.0K | Jan 1, 2028 |
| What will be in a US-Iran deal in 2026? | Iran Reconstruction Funding 17.5% | -1.5 pts | $31.5K | Jan 1, 2027 |
| Abbotsford-Mission By-Election Winner | Kerry-Lynne Findlay 5.3% | +0.9 pts | $28.9K | Sep 26, 2026 |
| Next leader out of power before 2027? | Netanyahu - Israel PM 35.5% | -2.0 pts | $25.3K | Jan 1, 2027 |
| Russia x Ukraine peace talks? | By December 31 69.5% | — | $24.8K | Dec 31, 2026 |
| Crude Oil all time high? | By December 31 10.5% | — | $23.6K | Jan 1, 2027 |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31? | Yes 8.0% | -1.5 pts | $23.2K | Nov 1, 2026 |
| Will Russia invade a NATO country? | By December 31, 2026 6.0% | +0.5 pts | $22.5K | Jan 1, 2027 |
| Iran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement? | By October 31 33.5% | -5.0 pts | $22.3K | Nov 1, 2026 |
132 smaller markets are not shown; all 172 are in the JSON data.
For multi-outcome markets the leading outcome is the one with the highest price; for yes/no markets it is the YES price. Prices are Polymarket share prices read as probabilities, not executable quotes.
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Iran (117) · Strait of Hormuz (31) · Israel (103) · Middle East (108) · Russia–Ukraine War (129) · China & Taiwan (82) · Venezuela (24)
As of September 23, 2026 at 18:01 UTC, Polymarket lists 172 live Geopolitics markets with $5.68M traded in the last 24 hours. The most active is Brazil Presidential Election (Flávio Bolsonaro 58.9%), followed by US announces end of Iranian blockade? (By December 31 61.9%), Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control? (By December 31 5.5%).
172 live markets as of September 23, 2026, not counting single games and markets that close within a few hours. The table lists them by 24-hour trading volume and refreshes twice a day.
From Polymarket's public market data. Each probability is the displayed price of an outcome's YES share, so 60¢ reads as roughly a 60% chance. Polymarket View is independent and not affiliated with Polymarket; nothing here is financial advice.
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<iframe src="https://polymarkettrader.com/embed/topic/geopolitics/" width="100%" height="280" style="border:0;max-width:560px" loading="lazy" title="Geopolitics odds on Polymarket"></iframe> <p><a href="https://polymarkettrader.com/odds/geopolitics/">Geopolitics odds</a> via <a href="https://polymarkettrader.com/">PolymarketTrader</a></p>
/api/v1/topics/geopolitics.json — every live market on the topic, CC BY 4.0 (credit “PolymarketTrader” with a link). See the developer docs.
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