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Updated November 7, 2026 · 163 live markets · refreshed twice a day
As of November 7, 2026 at 12:50 UTC, Polymarket lists 163 live Geopolitics markets with $7.82M traded in the last 24 hours. The most active is US-Iran effective ceasefire continues? (Through November 5 99.3%), followed by Israel x Iran ceasefire continues? (Through November 4 99.9%), Next French Presidential Election (Marine Le Pen 45.1%).
Wars, ceasefires, sanctions, diplomacy and leadership changes around the world. Every live market on the topic is below, with the leading outcome's probability, its 24-hour change, trading volume and end date.
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| Market | Leading outcome | 24h change | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| US-Iran effective ceasefire continues? | Through November 5 99.3% | +0.4 pts | $2.83M | Jan 1, 2027 |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues? | Through November 4 99.9% | +0.1 pts | $1.63M | Dec 31, 2026 |
| Next French Presidential Election | Marine Le Pen 45.1% | +0.6 pts | $723.5K | Apr 19, 2027 |
| Next Prime Minister of Sweden | Ulf Kristersson 55.4% | +22.1 pts | $336.1K | Jul 1, 2027 |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade? | By March 31 69.5% | -1.5 pts | $308.8K | Jan 1, 2027 |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | Yes 10.5% | -1.0 pts | $250.8K | Jan 1, 2027 |
| Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31? | Yes 32.5% | -9.0 pts | $204.5K | Jan 1, 2027 |
| Iran leadership change? | By June 30, 2027 22% | -2.0 pts | $101.8K | Jul 1, 2027 |
| Houthis enter Saudi Arabia? | By December 31 69.5% | +2.5 pts | $95.7K | Jan 1, 2027 |
| US-Iran Hormuz Agreement? | By December 31 35.5% | — | $92.1K | Jan 1, 2027 |
| Marco Rubio out as Secretary of State? | By March 31, 2027 25.5% | -3.0 pts | $88.1K | Apr 1, 2027 |
| Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? | Yes 1.7% | — | $80.3K | Jan 1, 2027 |
| Venezuela leader end of 2026? | Nicolás Maduro 91.5% | — | $72.7K | Jan 1, 2027 |
| Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | Yes 2.6% | -0.1 pts | $59.7K | Jan 1, 2027 |
| Iran full airspace closure? | By December 31 27% | -0.5 pts | $46.8K | Jan 1, 2027 |
| Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting? | By December 31, 2026 44.5% | +0.5 pts | $45.4K | Dec 31, 2026 |
| Israeli airspace closed by...? (Excluding Holiday Closures) | December 31 31.5% | +3.0 pts | $41.9K | Jan 1, 2027 |
| Trump out as President before 2027? | Yes 3.0% | -0.3 pts | $36.3K | Jan 1, 2027 |
| France declares state of emergency? | By December 31 3.4% | -2.1 pts | $34.4K | Jan 1, 2027 |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement? | By December 31, 2027 70.5% | +1.5 pts | $30.4K | Jul 1, 2027 |
| Where will Trump and Putin meet next in 2026? | China 88.5% | — | $30.2K | Jan 1, 2027 |
| Next Israeli government formed? | By June 30, 2027 83.5% | +8.0 pts | $27.2K | Jul 1, 2027 |
| Next leader out of power before 2027? | None before 2027 57% | -2.5 pts | $24.2K | Jan 1, 2027 |
| Crude Oil all time high? | By March 31, 2027 20% | -0.5 pts | $21.2K | Jan 1, 2027 |
| Where will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next before 2027? | No meeting before 2027 95.5% | +0.5 pts | $21.0K | Jan 1, 2027 |
| Saudi airspace closed? | By December 31 5.5% | -2.0 pts | $20.8K | Jan 1, 2027 |
| NATO x Russia military clash? | By December 31 11.5% | — | $20.6K | Jan 3, 2027 |
| US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by…? | December 31 9.5% | — | $19.1K | Jan 1, 2027 |
| What will be in a US-Iran deal in 2026? | Uranium Enrichment % Cap (1+ Year) 11.5% | -1.0 pts | $18.4K | Jan 1, 2027 |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? | Yes 9.5% | -0.5 pts | $17.5K | Jan 1, 2027 |
| Russia x Ukraine Ceasefire? | By December 31, 2027 41.5% | — | $17.4K | Dec 31, 2026 |
| Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory? | By June 30, 2027 7.5% | +0.5 pts | $14.5K | Jul 1, 2027 |
| Putin out as President of Russia? | By June 30, 2027 9.5% | — | $14.1K | Jul 1, 2027 |
| US imports Russian diesel? | By March 31 20% | -2.5 pts | $13.9K | Apr 1, 2027 |
| Iran Nuke before 2027? | Yes 3.8% | +1.6 pts | $12.0K | Jan 1, 2027 |
| Spain General Election Winner | PP 90.5% | -2.0 pts | $11.9K | Nov 30, 2026 |
| Russia x Ukraine peace talks? | By December 31 97.4% | +1.2 pts | $11.5K | Jan 1, 2027 |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30? | Yes 3.2% | -0.4 pts | $11.2K | Dec 1, 2026 |
| Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile? | By December 31 5.0% | -0.5 pts | $10.9K | Jan 1, 2027 |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control? | By December 31 4.5% | — | $10.6K | Jan 1, 2027 |
123 smaller markets are not shown; all 163 are in the JSON data.
For multi-outcome markets the leading outcome is the one with the highest price; for yes/no markets it is the YES price. Prices are Polymarket share prices read as probabilities, not executable quotes.
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How these markets work: “By date” markets · Yes/No markets · Parlay-style markets.
David Lisnard · Ségolène Royal · Xavier Bertrand · Olivier Faure · Mathilde Panot · François Asselineau · François Bayrou · Yaël Braun-Pivet · Élisabeth Borne · Michel Barnier · Manuel Bompard · Marine Le Pen · Clémentine Autain · Nicolas Dupont-Aignan · François Ruffin
Iran (116) · Strait of Hormuz (30) · Israel (97) · Middle East (121) · Russia–Ukraine War (141) · China & Taiwan (80) · Venezuela (28)
As of November 7, 2026 at 12:50 UTC, Polymarket lists 163 live Geopolitics markets with $7.82M traded in the last 24 hours. The most active is US-Iran effective ceasefire continues? (Through November 5 99.3%), followed by Israel x Iran ceasefire continues? (Through November 4 99.9%), Next French Presidential Election (Marine Le Pen 45.1%).
163 live markets as of November 7, 2026, not counting single games and markets that close within a few hours. The table lists them by 24-hour trading volume and refreshes twice a day.
From Polymarket's public market data. Each probability is the displayed price of an outcome's YES share, so 60¢ reads as roughly a 60% chance. Polymarket View is independent and not affiliated with Polymarket; nothing here is financial advice.
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<iframe src="https://polymarkettrader.com/embed/topic/geopolitics/" width="100%" height="280" style="border:0;max-width:560px" loading="lazy" title="Geopolitics odds on Polymarket"></iframe> <p><a href="https://polymarkettrader.com/odds/geopolitics/">Geopolitics odds</a> via <a href="https://polymarkettrader.com/">PolymarketTrader</a></p>
/api/v1/topics/geopolitics.json — every live market on the topic, CC BY 4.0 (credit “PolymarketTrader” with a link). See the developer docs.
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Polymarket View, “Geopolitics odds on Polymarket”, November 7, 2026, https://polymarkettrader.com/odds/geopolitics/ (data: Polymarket, CC BY 4.0).
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