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Updated October 16, 2026 · Category: Politics & Elections · Market end date: January 1, 2027
As of October 16, 2026 at 00:50 UTC, the leading outcome is By June 30, 2027 at 56.5%, followed by By March 31, 2027 at 48.5%, By December 31, 2026 at 5.9%. The market has $173.6K in total volume and $179 in the last 24 hours.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| By June 30, 2027 | 56.5% | -4.5 pts | $1.3K |
| By March 31, 2027 | 48.5% | +5.0 pts | $1.2K |
| By December 31, 2026 | 5.9% | +0.8 pts | $1.1K |
| By June 30, 2026 (settled) | 0.0% | -0.1 pts | $170.0K |
Total volume $173.6K · 24h volume $179 · Liquidity $33.7K. Prices are Polymarket YES-share prices read as probabilities; they are not executable quotes.
■ By June 30, 2027 ■ By March 31, 2027 ■ By December 31, 2026 · 30-day price history (12-hour points)
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This market will resolve to “Yes“ if the US House of Representatives, by simple majority vote, approves or passes one or more articles of impeachment of United States Secretary of War Pete Hegseth, between market creation and June 30, 2026 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Neither trial nor conviction by the US Senate, nor removal from office, is necessary to resolve this market to “Yes“.
If the named individual permanently vacates the specified office prior to the satisfaction of the criteria for a "Yes" resolution, this market will immediately resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the federal government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Summary of the market's published rules. The rules on Polymarket control settlement; check them there before relying on any outcome: open this market on Polymarket.
More odds by topic: Politics odds
As of October 16, 2026 at 00:50 UTC, the leading outcome is By June 30, 2027 at 56.5%, followed by By March 31, 2027 at 48.5%, By December 31, 2026 at 5.9%. The market has $173.6K in total volume and $179 in the last 24 hours.
The event's listed end date is January 1, 2027. Each outcome settles under the market's written rules, summarized on this page, which can differ from the end-date field.
They are the displayed prices of each outcome's YES share on Polymarket. A price of 60¢ implies roughly a 60% chance. This page refreshes the numbers twice a day, so they are not live quotes.
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