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Updated October 6, 2026 · Category: Economy & Fed · Market end date: December 31, 2026
As of October 6, 2026 at 00:50 UTC, the leading outcome is >$8,000 at 43%, followed by $7,500-$8,000 at 20%, $7,000-$7,500 at 18.5%. The market has $45.8K in total volume and $621 in the last 24 hours.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| >$8,000 | 43% | +4.5 pts | $7.3K |
| $7,500-$8,000 | 20% | -3.5 pts | $4.3K |
| $7,000-$7,500 | 18.5% | +0.5 pts | $2.8K |
| $6,500-$7,000 | 12.5% | -2.0 pts | $4.8K |
| $6,000-$6,500 | 6.0% | +0.5 pts | $2.5K |
| <$6,000 | 5.5% | — | $24.0K |
Total volume $45.8K · 24h volume $621 · Liquidity $34.3K. Prices are Polymarket YES-share prices read as probabilities; they are not executable quotes.
■ >$8,000 ■ $7,500-$8,000 ■ $7,000-$7,500 · 30-day price history (12-hour points)
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This market will resolve according to the official closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on the final trading day of December 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."
Summary of the market's published rules. The rules on Polymarket control settlement; check them there before relying on any outcome: open this market on Polymarket.
As of October 6, 2026 at 00:50 UTC, the leading outcome is >$8,000 at 43%, followed by $7,500-$8,000 at 20%, $7,000-$7,500 at 18.5%. The market has $45.8K in total volume and $621 in the last 24 hours.
The event's listed end date is December 31, 2026. Each outcome settles under the market's written rules, summarized on this page, which can differ from the end-date field.
They are the displayed prices of each outcome's YES share on Polymarket. A price of 60¢ implies roughly a 60% chance. This page refreshes the numbers twice a day, so they are not live quotes.
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