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Updated October 16, 2026 · Category: Politics & Elections · Market end date: November 29, 2026
As of October 16, 2026 at 00:50 UTC, the leading outcome is Fireworks restriction initiative at 62%, followed by War Material amendment at 37.5%, VAT federal decree at 18%. The market has $23.5K in total volume and $898 in the last 24 hours.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fireworks restriction initiative | 62% | -14.0 pts | $10.1K |
| War Material amendment | 37.5% | -0.5 pts | $2.4K |
| VAT federal decree | 18% | -3.0 pts | $7.3K |
| Marriage taxation initiative | 13.5% | +3.5 pts | $3.7K |
Total volume $23.5K · 24h volume $898 · Liquidity $33.5K. Prices are Polymarket YES-share prices read as probabilities; they are not executable quotes.
■ Fireworks restriction initiative ■ War Material amendment ■ VAT federal decree · 30-day price history (12-hour points)
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As of market creation, four referenda are scheduled to be held in Switzerland on November 29, 2026:
- Issue 1: Federal decree of 19 June 2026 on additional funding for the AVS through an increase in VAT
- Issue 2: Popular initiative ‘For a restriction on fireworks’
- Issue 3: Popular initiative ‘Yes to fair federal taxation for married couples – To finally put an end to marriage discrimination!’
- Issue 4: Amendment of 19 December 2025 to the Federal Act on War Material (LFMG)
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed referendum is approved under the applicable legal threshold in the specified popular vote. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
This market will resolve to “Yes” if either the popular initiative or, where applicable, the federal counter-proposal is approved under the applicable legal threshold, regardless of any tie-breaker vote.
If the referendum is officially rescheduled, the same rule applies to the new ballot and its corresponding deadlines. This market will resolve to “No” if, for any reason, the results of the respective vote are not known definitively by the date the subsequent Referendum in Switzerland is scheduled to be held.
The resolution source will be based on a consensus of credible reporting. In the event of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official certified referendum results published by Swiss government authorities, such as the Swiss Federal Chancellery and the information portal provided by the Swiss authorities (https://www.ch.ch/en/votes-and-elections/). Subsequent litigation, administrative challenges, or failure of any post-approval implementation steps will not be considered.
Summary of the market's published rules. The rules on Polymarket control settlement; check them there before relying on any outcome: open this market on Polymarket.
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As of October 16, 2026 at 00:50 UTC, the leading outcome is Fireworks restriction initiative at 62%, followed by War Material amendment at 37.5%, VAT federal decree at 18%. The market has $23.5K in total volume and $898 in the last 24 hours.
The event's listed end date is November 29, 2026. Each outcome settles under the market's written rules, summarized on this page, which can differ from the end-date field.
They are the displayed prices of each outcome's YES share on Polymarket. A price of 60¢ implies roughly a 60% chance. This page refreshes the numbers twice a day, so they are not live quotes.
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