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Updated October 18, 2026 · Category: Crypto · Market end date: November 3, 2026
As of October 18, 2026 at 00:50 UTC, the leading outcome is $10M at 90.8%, followed by $15M at 85.5%, $20M at 76%. The market has $21.7K in total volume and $14.4K in the last 24 hours.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| $10M | 90.8% | -4.2 pts | $1.3K |
| $15M | 85.5% | +4.5 pts | $1.9K |
| $20M | 76% | -4.5 pts | $3.5K |
| $30M | 65.5% | +17.0 pts | $4.0K |
| $40M | 59.5% | +16.0 pts | $2.7K |
| $60M | 46% | +9.5 pts | $8.1K |
Total volume $21.7K · 24h volume $14.4K · Liquidity $22.1K. Prices are Polymarket YES-share prices read as probabilities; they are not executable quotes.
■ $10M ■ $15M ■ $20M · 30-day price history (12-hour points)
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This market will resolve to "Yes" if total commitments to the official 1W public sale exceed the specified value at any point before November 2, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the headline pool total displayed on the official 1W Token Sale page at https://1wtoken.com/ (the "US$[amount] of US$[allocation]" figure). Total commitments refers to this gross pool amount, including any oversubscription above the sale's allocation, and not the final allocated amount after excess deposits are refunded. If the sale page displays only a net or allocated figure rather than the gross pool amount, official announcements of the gross amount from 1W will be used. The sale accepts deposits in US dollar stablecoins (USDC), which are counted as US dollars at 1:1.
If the displayed figure exceeds the specified value at any point before November 2, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of subsequent refunds or cancellations. A displayed figure exactly equal to the specified value will not qualify. If the figure on the sale page is unavailable, official announcements from 1W (https://x.com/1winToken) may be used; if no official figure is available, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. If no commitment total is verifiable by November 2, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, including because the sale is put on hold, cancelled, or rescheduled to a time past that date, this market will resolve to "No". If requisite information for this market's resolution becomes permanently unavailable within this market's timeframe, this market will resolve to "No".
If the sale is extended before the official closing time, commitments made during the extended period will count toward resolution, provided the displayed figure exceeds the specified value before November 2, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Summary of the market's published rules. The rules on Polymarket control settlement; check them there before relying on any outcome: open this market on Polymarket.
As of October 18, 2026 at 00:50 UTC, the leading outcome is $10M at 90.8%, followed by $15M at 85.5%, $20M at 76%. The market has $21.7K in total volume and $14.4K in the last 24 hours.
The event's listed end date is November 3, 2026. Each outcome settles under the market's written rules, summarized on this page, which can differ from the end-date field.
They are the displayed prices of each outcome's YES share on Polymarket. A price of 60¢ implies roughly a 60% chance. This page refreshes the numbers twice a day, so they are not live quotes.
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