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Updated October 5, 2026 · Category: Crypto · Market end date: January 1, 2027
As of October 5, 2026 at 12:50 UTC, the leading outcome is $4M at 11.9%, followed by $2M at 11.5%, $5M at 11.1%. The market has $37.8K in total volume and $395 in the last 24 hours.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| $4M | 11.9% | -37.5 pts | $5.8K |
| $2M | 11.5% | -0.5 pts | $5.6K |
| $5M | 11.1% | — | $5.3K |
| $3M | 8.8% | +0.1 pts | $3.5K |
| $1M | 8.5% | — | $17.5K |
Total volume $37.8K · 24h volume $395 · Liquidity $978. Prices are Polymarket YES-share prices read as probabilities; they are not executable quotes.
■ $4M ■ $2M ■ $5M · 30-day price history (12-hour points)
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This market will resolve to “Yes” if Based’s cumulative Polymarket revenue is equal to or greater than the value specified in the title by December 31, 2026 ET. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the Based revenue bar chart available at https://dune.com/datadashboards/based-statistics, using the “Cumulative Revenue” value displayed when hovering over the daily data point.
This market will resolve as soon as the cumulative revenue shown on the dashboard is equal to or greater than the value specified in the title, or once the value for Dec 31, 2026 is finalized and no earlier value has met or exceeded that threshold.
If the resolution source becomes permanently unavailable, the market will resolve based on on-chain data, Based official communication, or other reliable crypto sources.
Summary of the market's published rules. The rules on Polymarket control settlement; check them there before relying on any outcome: open this market on Polymarket.
As of October 5, 2026 at 12:50 UTC, the leading outcome is $4M at 11.9%, followed by $2M at 11.5%, $5M at 11.1%. The market has $37.8K in total volume and $395 in the last 24 hours.
The event's listed end date is January 1, 2027. Each outcome settles under the market's written rules, summarized on this page, which can differ from the end-date field.
They are the displayed prices of each outcome's YES share on Polymarket. A price of 60¢ implies roughly a 60% chance. This page refreshes the numbers twice a day, so they are not live quotes.
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