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Updated October 17, 2026 · Category: Sports · Market end date: December 1, 2026
As of October 17, 2026 at 12:50 UTC, the leading outcome is Ousmane Dembélé at 96.2%, followed by Lamine Yamal at 94%, Harry Kane at 92.5%. The market has $43.7K in total volume and $43.7K in the last 24 hours.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ousmane Dembélé | 96.2% | — | $2.9K |
| Lamine Yamal | 94% | — | $364 |
| Harry Kane | 92.5% | — | $3.5K |
| Rodri | 86% | — | $2.6K |
| David Beckham | 76% | — | $737 |
| Kylian Mbappé | 66.5% | — | $1.8K |
| Michael Owen | 53.5% | — | $600 |
| Lionel Messi | 33% | — | $5.6K |
| Kaka | 31.5% | — | $3.9K |
| Sergio Ramos | 31% | — | $5.6K |
| Xavi Hernandez | 22.5% | — | $1.2K |
| Zinedine Zidane | 20.5% | — | $1.9K |
| Vinícius Júnior | 14.5% | — | $9.2K |
| Cristiano Ronaldo | 5.5% | — | $3.8K |
Total volume $43.7K · 24h volume $43.7K · Liquidity $20.8K. Prices are Polymarket YES-share prices read as probabilities; they are not executable quotes.
■ Ousmane Dembélé ■ Lamine Yamal ■ Harry Kane · 30-day price history (12-hour points)
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The 2026 Ballon d'Or ceremony is scheduled to be held in London on October 26, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual attends the 2026 Ballon d'Or ceremony. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the event is canceled or postponed beyond November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purpose of this market, attending the 2026 Ballon d'Or ceremony is defined as being in physical attendance during any part of the event.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Summary of the market's published rules. The rules on Polymarket control settlement; check them there before relying on any outcome: open this market on Polymarket.
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As of October 17, 2026 at 12:50 UTC, the leading outcome is Ousmane Dembélé at 96.2%, followed by Lamine Yamal at 94%, Harry Kane at 92.5%. The market has $43.7K in total volume and $43.7K in the last 24 hours.
The event's listed end date is December 1, 2026. Each outcome settles under the market's written rules, summarized on this page, which can differ from the end-date field.
They are the displayed prices of each outcome's YES share on Polymarket. A price of 60¢ implies roughly a 60% chance. This page refreshes the numbers twice a day, so they are not live quotes.
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