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Updated October 8, 2026 · Category: Sports · Market end date: April 1, 2027
As of October 8, 2026 at 12:50 UTC, the leading outcome is Jay Z at 64.5%, followed by Miley Cyrus at 54.2%, Justin Bieber at 29.5%. The market has $21.1K in total volume and $3.8K in the last 24 hours.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jay Z | 64.5% | +25.5 pts | $118 |
| Miley Cyrus | 54.2% | -10.2 pts | $885 |
| Justin Bieber | 29.5% | -14.8 pts | $1.3K |
| Harry Styles | 24% | -4.7 pts | $3.2K |
| Taylor Swift | 20.2% | -5.1 pts | $1.4K |
| Luke Combs | 12% | — | $80 |
| Morgan Wallen | 10.5% | -2.0 pts | $827 |
| Post Malone | 9.5% | +1.0 pts | $390 |
| Dua Lipa | 9.2% | +0.3 pts | $2.5K |
| Sabrina Carpenter | 8.0% | -10.5 pts | $686 |
| Drake | 7.3% | — | $702 |
| Kanye West | 3.6% | — | $6.8K |
| Olivia Rodrigo | 2.2% | -0.1 pts | $2.2K |
Total volume $21.1K · 24h volume $3.8K · Liquidity $33.8K. Prices are Polymarket YES-share prices read as probabilities; they are not executable quotes.
■ Jay Z ■ Miley Cyrus ■ Justin Bieber · 30-day price history (12-hour points)
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This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual performs live and in person during the Super Bowl LXI halftime show currently scheduled for February 14, 2027. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Qualifying performances include but are not limited to singing and dancing. An appearance during the event where an individual does not perform as an incorporated part of the show will not alone qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
"Dancing" is defined as deliberate, rhythmic body movement typically matched to music or a beat, such as swaying, stepping, or coordinated hand or body motions. Casual gesturing, clapping, or incidental body movement will not qualify. Dancing without the presence of music or a beat will qualify.
If this event is cancelled or otherwise delayed beyond March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be footage of the Super Bowl LXI halftime show, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Summary of the market's published rules. The rules on Polymarket control settlement; check them there before relying on any outcome: open this market on Polymarket.
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As of October 8, 2026 at 12:50 UTC, the leading outcome is Jay Z at 64.5%, followed by Miley Cyrus at 54.2%, Justin Bieber at 29.5%. The market has $21.1K in total volume and $3.8K in the last 24 hours.
The event's listed end date is April 1, 2027. Each outcome settles under the market's written rules, summarized on this page, which can differ from the end-date field.
They are the displayed prices of each outcome's YES share on Polymarket. A price of 60¢ implies roughly a 60% chance. This page refreshes the numbers twice a day, so they are not live quotes.
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