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Updated October 6, 2026 · Category: Politics & Elections · Market end date: January 1, 2027
As of October 6, 2026 at 00:50 UTC, the leading outcome is December 31, 2026 at 9.0%. The market has $99.3K in total volume and $413 in the last 24 hours.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| December 31, 2026 | 9.0% | +4.5 pts | $96.0K |
| March 31, 2026 (settled) | 0.0% | +4.0 pts | $3.3K |
Total volume $99.3K · 24h volume $413 · Liquidity $3.4K. Prices are Polymarket YES-share prices read as probabilities; they are not executable quotes.
■ December 31, 2026 · 30-day price history (12-hour points)
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This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump officially launches a token by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Only tokens which are confirmed to have been launched by Donald Trump, either through posts from official social media channels, or otherwise confirmed by public statements will qualify.
The token must be actively and publicly transferable and tradable. Announcements alone do not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Summary of the market's published rules. The rules on Polymarket control settlement; check them there before relying on any outcome: open this market on Polymarket.
More odds by topic: Trump odds · Token Launches & FDV odds
As of October 6, 2026 at 00:50 UTC, the leading outcome is December 31, 2026 at 9.0%. The market has $99.3K in total volume and $413 in the last 24 hours.
The event's listed end date is January 1, 2027. Each outcome settles under the market's written rules, summarized on this page, which can differ from the end-date field.
They are the displayed prices of each outcome's YES share on Polymarket. A price of 60¢ implies roughly a 60% chance. This page refreshes the numbers twice a day, so they are not live quotes.
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