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Updated November 7, 2026 · 117 live markets · refreshed twice a day
As of November 7, 2026 at 12:50 UTC, Polymarket lists 117 live Trump markets with $5.22M traded in the last 24 hours. The most active is US-Iran effective ceasefire continues? (Through November 5 99.3%), followed by Fed Decision in December? (25 bps increase 76.5%), Who will leave Trump Administration before 2027? (Pete Hegseth 33.5%).
Donald Trump's presidency: policy decisions, statements, appointments, court cases and approval. Every live market on the topic is below, with the leading outcome's probability, its 24-hour change, trading volume and end date.
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| Market | Leading outcome | 24h change | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| US-Iran effective ceasefire continues? | Through November 5 99.3% | +0.4 pts | $2.83M | Jan 1, 2027 |
| Fed Decision in December? | 25 bps increase 76.5% | -2.0 pts | $379.5K | Dec 10, 2026 |
| Who will leave Trump Administration before 2027? | Pete Hegseth 33.5% | -9.0 pts | $309.1K | Jan 1, 2027 |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade? | By March 31 69.5% | -1.5 pts | $308.8K | Jan 1, 2027 |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | Yes 10.5% | -1.0 pts | $250.8K | Jan 1, 2027 |
| Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31? | Yes 32.5% | -9.0 pts | $204.5K | Jan 1, 2027 |
| US-Iran Hormuz Agreement? | By December 31 35.5% | — | $92.1K | Jan 1, 2027 |
| Marco Rubio out as Secretary of State? | By March 31, 2027 25.5% | -3.0 pts | $88.1K | Apr 1, 2027 |
| Venezuela leader end of 2026? | Nicolás Maduro 91.5% | — | $72.7K | Jan 1, 2027 |
| Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | Yes 2.6% | -0.1 pts | $59.7K | Jan 1, 2027 |
| Trump declares election interference national emergency? | By December 31 2.7% | -0.8 pts | $51.8K | Jan 1, 2027 |
| Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting? | By December 31, 2026 44.5% | +0.5 pts | $45.4K | Dec 31, 2026 |
| Trump out as President before 2027? | Yes 3.0% | -0.3 pts | $36.3K | Jan 1, 2027 |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement? | By December 31, 2027 70.5% | +1.5 pts | $30.4K | Jul 1, 2027 |
| Where will Trump and Putin meet next in 2026? | China 88.5% | — | $30.2K | Jan 1, 2027 |
| Next Press Secretary announced? | By December 31 71.5% | +11.5 pts | $29.6K | Jan 1, 2027 |
| Next Press Secretary? | Anna Kelly 16.5% | -5.0 pts | $27.6K | Jan 1, 2028 |
| Will Trump be impeached? | By December 31, 2027 57% | +0.5 pts | $22.7K | Jan 1, 2027 |
| Where will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next before 2027? | No meeting before 2027 95.5% | +0.5 pts | $21.0K | Jan 1, 2027 |
| NATO x Russia military clash? | By December 31 11.5% | — | $20.6K | Jan 3, 2027 |
| Russia x Ukraine Ceasefire? | By December 31, 2027 41.5% | — | $17.4K | Dec 31, 2026 |
| US imports Russian diesel? | By March 31 20% | -2.5 pts | $13.9K | Apr 1, 2027 |
| Trump declassifies new UFO files? | By December 31 78.1% | -1.3 pts | $13.7K | Dec 1, 2026 |
| Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026? | Yes 2.1% | -0.8 pts | $13.1K | Jan 1, 2027 |
| How many more people leave the Trump cabinet this year? | 3 46% | +33.5 pts | $11.3K | Jan 1, 2027 |
| Donald Trump # Truth Social posts November 3 - November 10, 2026? | 100-119 21.9% | +8.7 pts | $11.1K | Nov 10, 2026 |
| Fed Decision in January? | No change 73.5% | — | $11.0K | Jan 28, 2027 |
| Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile? | By December 31 5.0% | -0.5 pts | $10.9K | Jan 1, 2027 |
| Kash Patel out? | By December 31 20% | +1.5 pts | $10.6K | Jan 1, 2027 |
| Trump, Putin, and Xi seen together before 2027? | Yes 85% | -3.0 pts | $10.3K | Jan 1, 2027 |
| US strike on Colombia? | By December 31 18.5% | +7.0 pts | $9.5K | Jan 1, 2027 |
| Trump meets with Putin? | By December 31 88% | -0.5 pts | $7.7K | Jan 1, 2027 |
| US obtains Iranian enriched uranium? | By December 31 2.9% | +0.1 pts | $7.3K | Jan 1, 2027 |
| Who will Trump speak to by November 30? | Xi Jinping 97% | -0.4 pts | $7.3K | Dec 1, 2026 |
| Next US Senate Minority Leader? | John Thune 92.5% | +6.0 pts | $7.3K | Jan 3, 2027 |
| Jeanine Pirro out as D.C. U.S. Attorney? | By December 31, 2026 24.5% | +7.0 pts | $7.2K | Jan 1, 2027 |
| Iran coup attempt? | By December 31, 2027 27.5% | +6.0 pts | $6.9K | Jan 1, 2027 |
| Who will be arrested before 2027? | John Brennan 10.5% | — | $6.7K | Jan 1, 2027 |
| Where will the next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting take place? | No Meeting by December 31 54% | -1.5 pts | $6.3K | Dec 31, 2026 |
| Who will Trump meet with by November 30? | Xi Jinping 95% | -1.4 pts | $6.0K | Dec 1, 2026 |
77 smaller markets are not shown; all 117 are in the JSON data.
For multi-outcome markets the leading outcome is the one with the highest price; for yes/no markets it is the YES price. Prices are Polymarket share prices read as probabilities, not executable quotes.
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How these markets work: “By date” markets · Yes/No markets · Mention markets · Approval rating markets.
Kristi Noem · Pete Hegseth · Marco Rubio · Robert F. Kennedy Jr. · Kash Patel · Howard Lutnick · Scott Bessent · Lee Zeldin · Donald Trump · Richard Grenell · Frank Donovan · Evan Pettus · Dan Caine · Nicolás Maduro · Dinorah Figuera
2028 Presidential Election (45) · 2026 Midterms (3) · Senate Races (18) · Governor Races (0) · House Races (0) · Supreme Court (45) · World Elections (128) · Brazil (26) · France (37) · Germany (15) · United Kingdom (23) · Canada (38) · Mexico (62) · Politics (78)
As of November 7, 2026 at 12:50 UTC, Polymarket lists 117 live Trump markets with $5.22M traded in the last 24 hours. The most active is US-Iran effective ceasefire continues? (Through November 5 99.3%), followed by Fed Decision in December? (25 bps increase 76.5%), Who will leave Trump Administration before 2027? (Pete Hegseth 33.5%).
117 live markets as of November 7, 2026, not counting single games and markets that close within a few hours. The table lists them by 24-hour trading volume and refreshes twice a day.
From Polymarket's public market data. Each probability is the displayed price of an outcome's YES share, so 60¢ reads as roughly a 60% chance. Polymarket View is independent and not affiliated with Polymarket; nothing here is financial advice.
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<iframe src="https://polymarkettrader.com/embed/topic/trump/" width="100%" height="280" style="border:0;max-width:560px" loading="lazy" title="Trump odds on Polymarket"></iframe> <p><a href="https://polymarkettrader.com/odds/trump/">Trump odds</a> via <a href="https://polymarkettrader.com/">PolymarketTrader</a></p>
/api/v1/topics/trump.json — every live market on the topic, CC BY 4.0 (credit “PolymarketTrader” with a link). See the developer docs.
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Polymarket View, “Trump odds on Polymarket”, November 7, 2026, https://polymarkettrader.com/odds/trump/ (data: Polymarket, CC BY 4.0).
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