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Updated October 5, 2026 · Category: Politics & Elections · Market end date: January 1, 2027
As of October 5, 2026 at 12:50 UTC, Polymarket traders price Yes at 5.5% (No 94.5%), with $173.9K traded in total and $484 in the last 24 hours.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 5.5% | — | $173.9K |
| No | 94.5% | — | — |
Total volume $173.9K · 24h volume $484 · Liquidity $23.4K. Prices are Polymarket YES-share prices read as probabilities; they are not executable quotes.
■ Yes ■ No · 30-day price history (12-hour points)
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This market will resolve to "Yes" if Turkey officially announces early presidential elections to occur before the currently scheduled 2028 Turkish presidential election, between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying announcement requires an official public announcement by the Turkish government, the Presidency of Turkey, the Grand National Assembly of Turkey, or the Supreme Election Council of Turkey (YSK) establishing, approving, scheduling, or formally initiating a presidential election to occur before the currently scheduled 2028 election.
Announcements of discussions, proposals, negotiations, speculation, or calls for early elections by politicians, parties, media, or commentators, without official action to schedule or initiate such elections, will not qualify.
If early presidential elections are officially announced before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether the elections are later postponed, canceled, or ultimately held.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Turkish government authorities or the Supreme Election Council of Turkey (YSK); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Summary of the market's published rules. The rules on Polymarket control settlement; check them there before relying on any outcome: open this market on Polymarket.
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As of October 5, 2026 at 12:50 UTC, Polymarket traders price Yes at 5.5% (No 94.5%), with $173.9K traded in total and $484 in the last 24 hours.
The event's listed end date is January 1, 2027. Each outcome settles under the market's written rules, summarized on this page, which can differ from the end-date field.
They are the displayed prices of each outcome's YES share on Polymarket. A price of 60¢ implies roughly a 60% chance. This page refreshes the numbers twice a day, so they are not live quotes.
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