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Updated October 4, 2026 · Category: Economy & Fed · Market end date: December 31, 2026
As of October 4, 2026 at 00:50 UTC, the leading outcome is ↓150 at 48.5%, followed by ↓140 at 32.5%, ↑165 at 27%. The market has $60.5K in total volume and $7.5K in the last 24 hours.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| ↑160 (settled) | 100% | -1.0 pts | $8.3K |
| ↓150 | 48.5% | -0.5 pts | $7.2K |
| ↓140 | 32.5% | -0.5 pts | $2.7K |
| ↑165 | 27% | — | $11.0K |
| ↑170 | 8.5% | — | $6.9K |
| ↑175 | 8.5% | -0.5 pts | $3.4K |
| ↑180 | 5.8% | -0.2 pts | $1.0K |
| ↑190 | 5.5% | — | $100 |
| ↑200 | 3.5% | -0.1 pts | $719 |
| ↓130 | 3.1% | — | $1.5K |
| ↓110 | 2.3% | -2.1 pts | $1.0K |
| ↓120 | 1.1% | -2.5 pts | $16.6K |
Total volume $60.5K · 24h volume $7.5K · Liquidity $11.6K. Prices are Polymarket YES-share prices read as probabilities; they are not executable quotes.
■ ↓150 ■ ↓140 ■ ↑165 · 30-day price history (12-hour points)
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This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Investing.com high price (“H”) for any USD/JPY hourly candle for an hour on or before the listed end date (ET) is equal to or above the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Data for a given candle will be considered finalized once the next candle appears on the specified graph. The last trading day of a given week will be considered finalized once the market closes on that day, typically at 5 PM ET on Friday.
This market will resolve as soon as any finalized USD/JPY hourly candle high price is equal to or above the listed price, or once the final hourly candle in the specified period is finalized. A candle starting at 11:00 PM ET on a given date will be considered to be on that date.
This market’s resolution will be based solely on information from the “H” figure located at the top of the USD/JPY Streaming Chart on Investing.com for the specified currency pair (https://www.investing.com/currencies/usd-jpy-chart).
Summary of the market's published rules. The rules on Polymarket control settlement; check them there before relying on any outcome: open this market on Polymarket.
As of October 4, 2026 at 00:50 UTC, the leading outcome is ↓150 at 48.5%, followed by ↓140 at 32.5%, ↑165 at 27%. The market has $60.5K in total volume and $7.5K in the last 24 hours.
The event's listed end date is December 31, 2026. Each outcome settles under the market's written rules, summarized on this page, which can differ from the end-date field.
They are the displayed prices of each outcome's YES share on Polymarket. A price of 60¢ implies roughly a 60% chance. This page refreshes the numbers twice a day, so they are not live quotes.
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