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Updated October 27, 2026 · Category: Sports · Market end date: January 1, 2027
As of October 27, 2026 at 00:50 UTC, the leading outcome is Ewa Pajor at 98.4%, followed by Khadija Shaw at 95.5%, Melchie Dumornay at 89.5%. The market has $32.3K in total volume and $22.3K in the last 24 hours.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| Alexia Putellas (settled) | 100% | +0.1 pts | $2.0K |
| Ewa Pajor | 98.4% | +2.4 pts | $1.8K |
| Khadija Shaw | 95.5% | +22.5 pts | $236 |
| Melchie Dumornay | 89.5% | -5.9 pts | $1.9K |
| Patri Guijarro | 85.7% | +34.2 pts | $370 |
| Alessia Russo | 23% | -26.0 pts | $1.1K |
| Pernille Harder | 4.5% | -41.3 pts | $876 |
| Caroline Graham Hansen | 4.5% | -6.5 pts | $505 |
| Temwa Chawinga | 4.5% | -19.5 pts | $347 |
| Claudia Pina | 3.5% | -37.5 pts | $292 |
| Selma Bacha (settled) | 0.0% | +1.1 pts | $2.0K |
| Wendie Renard (settled) | 0.0% | -33.8 pts | $1.6K |
| Tessa Wullaert (settled) | 0.0% | -26.8 pts | $1.6K |
| Scarlett Camberos (settled) | 0.0% | -4.8 pts | $1.5K |
| Manaka Matsukubo (settled) | 0.0% | -7.6 pts | $1.4K |
15 lower-priced outcomes are not shown; the full list is in the JSON data.
Total volume $32.3K · 24h volume $22.3K · Liquidity $6.1K. Prices are Polymarket YES-share prices read as probabilities; they are not executable quotes.
■ Ewa Pajor ■ Khadija Shaw ■ Melchie Dumornay · 30-day price history (12-hour points)
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This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed player finishes in the top 5 of the official 2026 Women's Ballon d'Or ranking. Otherwise, the corresponding market will resolve to "No".
The 2026 Ballon d'Or ceremony is scheduled to take place in London on October 26, 2026.
If more than 5 players tie for the top 5 in the award ranking, resolution will follow France Football's official top 5 list. Any players tied at the same placement with no further official distinction will be resolved alphabetically by name.
If the award is postponed after November 9, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, canceled, or the final five places have not been determined within this timeframe, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be official information from France Football and/or UEFA, including the official Women's Ballon d'Or announcement; a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Summary of the market's published rules. The rules on Polymarket control settlement; check them there before relying on any outcome: open this market on Polymarket.
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As of October 27, 2026 at 00:50 UTC, the leading outcome is Ewa Pajor at 98.4%, followed by Khadija Shaw at 95.5%, Melchie Dumornay at 89.5%. The market has $32.3K in total volume and $22.3K in the last 24 hours.
The event's listed end date is January 1, 2027. Each outcome settles under the market's written rules, summarized on this page, which can differ from the end-date field.
They are the displayed prices of each outcome's YES share on Polymarket. A price of 60¢ implies roughly a 60% chance. This page refreshes the numbers twice a day, so they are not live quotes.
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