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Updated September 28, 2026 · Category: Crypto · Market end date: June 5, 2027
As of September 28, 2026 at 12:50 UTC, Polymarket traders price Yes at 4.7% (No 95.3%), with $27.9K traded in total and $820 in the last 24 hours.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 4.7% | -0.3 pts | $27.9K |
| No | 95.3% | +0.3 pts | — |
Total volume $27.9K · 24h volume $820 · Liquidity $4.6K. Prices are Polymarket YES-share prices read as probabilities; they are not executable quotes.
■ Yes ■ No · 30-day price history (12-hour points)
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This market asks whether Zcash's Orchard pool vulnerability publicized June 4 is confirmed to have been exploited on Zcash mainnet before it was fixed.
This market resolves "Yes" if Shielded Labs, the Zcash Foundation, or the Zcash Open Development Lab (ZODL) explicitly confirms, or an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirms, that the June 4 Zcash Orchard pool vulnerability was exploited on mainnet before the fix was activated by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Explicit confirmation of any of the following will qualify:
- The Orchard pool bug was exploited on Zcash mainnet
- Any extra, unauthorized, invalid, or unbacked Zcash was created in the Orchard pool through this vulnerability
- A Zcash network upgrade, migration, audit, turnstile-accounting process (including the proposed new shielded pool with enforced turnstile accounting on exiting Orchard coins), or official investigation reveals excess or invalid Zcash in the Orchard pool that the source attributes to this specific vulnerability.
New or different exploits targeting the Orchard pool after the original vulnerability was fixed are explicitly disqualified and will not qualify.
This market will resolve based on official information from Shielded Labs, the Zcash Foundation, or the Zcash Open Development Lab (ZODL), however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming a qualifying exploit may also resolve this market.
Summary of the market's published rules. The rules on Polymarket control settlement; check them there before relying on any outcome: open this market on Polymarket.
As of September 28, 2026 at 12:50 UTC, Polymarket traders price Yes at 4.7% (No 95.3%), with $27.9K traded in total and $820 in the last 24 hours.
The event's listed end date is June 5, 2027. Each outcome settles under the market's written rules, summarized on this page, which can differ from the end-date field.
They are the displayed prices of each outcome's YES share on Polymarket. A price of 60¢ implies roughly a 60% chance. This page refreshes the numbers twice a day, so they are not live quotes.
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