Bank of Canada October 2026 Decision: The 25 bp Hike to 2.50% Landed
The official decision and Monetary Policy Report, the settlement of the five-outcome Polymarket event, the October 19–20 board inversion that preceded it, and the September 26 snapshot kept unchanged for the record.
Published 2026-09-26 · Decision-day record 2026-10-28 · Official release re-fetched 2026-10-28 ~16:33 UTC · Gamma re-check 16:35 UTC · Next announcement: December 9, 2026
The answer first
The Bank of Canada raised the target for the overnight rate by 25 basis points to 2.50% on Wednesday, October 28, 2026 — the first change since the October 29, 2025 cut, announced together with the October Monetary Policy Report, with the Bank Rate at 2.75% and the deposit rate at 2.45%, followed by a press conference with Governor Tiff Macklem and Senior Deputy Governor Carolyn Rogers at 10:30 a.m. ET. Polymarket's five-outcome event settled to a 25-basis-point increase: that bucket closed at Yes $1.00 (a $232,653 book) while no change — the heaviest single book at $250,178 — resolved to No, with both decrease buckets and the 50+ bp increase at $0.00; the event closed with $617,028 of cumulative volume, $107,204 of it on the final day. The decision followed a month of repricing this page records: the September 26 snapshot below shows no change at 61.3¢, the hold hardened as high as 87.7¢ by October 13, then the board inverted on October 19–20 — the hike bucket ran from 15.3¢ to 81.6¢ inside a day — and held near 80–84¢ into the announcement, trading at 83.7¢ against 14.1¢ for no change at the final 13:00 UTC print before the release flipped it to 99.95¢ within the hour. Settlement runs on official Bank of Canada information; the recorded snapshots are crowd sentiment at their timestamps, kept here unchanged.
Where the October meeting sits in the 2026 calendar
The year-long hold is over
The official decision raises the target from 2.25% — the level at all six earlier 2026 announcements — to 2.50%, with the Bank Rate at 2.75% and the deposit rate at 2.45%. The Bank's policy-rate table is the settlement source the contracts name.
September has decided
The September 2 announcement was a hold, with Governing Council pointing to second-quarter GDP up 3.3% and a 6.4% July unemployment rate against increased upside inflation risks. The September decision hub holds the full settled record, including the settlement table.
The Monetary Policy Report landed with it
October 28 was an MPR round: the Bank published new forecasts with the decision, projecting Canadian inflation higher than previously anticipated and around 3% through much of 2027 before returning close to 2%. The next MPR is January 27, 2027.
One decision, five buckets
The exact Polymarket event splits the outcome into −50+ bp, −25 bp, no change, +25 bp, and +50+ bp — five independent yes/no order books under negRisk architecture, not one ranked list.
Official Bank of Canada October 2026 timeline
The official policy-rate table records a 25-basis-point cut to 2.25% on this date. Every announcement since — December 10, 2025 and all six 2026 dates — has kept the target there.
The 2026 columns of the official table read 2.25% across January 28, March 18, April 29, June 10, July 15, and September 2 — the longest unchanged stretch since the Bank began publishing its current schedule page.
Governing Council left the target at 2.25% while citing second-quarter GDP up 3.3%, broad-based consumption and export strength, unemployment easing to 6.4%, CPI around 3% on gasoline, ex-gasoline inflation at 2.2% and core near 2% — and “upside risks to the Bank's inflation forecast have increased” on the Middle East energy shock and new tariffs. Polymarket's September event settled to no change.
The ECB raised rates 25 bp on September 10, the Fed followed with a 25 bp hike on September 16, and the Bank of Japan hiked on September 18 — leaving the Bank of Canada (with the Bank of England) among the holdouts as October approaches.
The official calendar still names October 28 (announcement plus MPR, December 9 next), the rate page still shows 2.25%, and the verified October event is open with $116,475 cumulative volume, the no-change bucket at 61.3¢ the largest book.
Canada's September jobs report and September CPI print are the last major data before the meeting, alongside the Week Ahead calendars. They can move expectations and order books, but none of them substitutes for the official October 28 announcement as resolution evidence.
After the hold hardened as high as 87.7¢ on October 13, the hike bucket ran from 15.3¢ to 81.6¢ between the October 19 04:00 and October 20 00:00 UTC prints while no change fell from 84.0¢ to 18.4¢. The planned ~October 21 refresh did not ship — the gap is recorded here, not edited.
The decision and new forecasts were published together in the morning window; the order book flipped to the hike bucket between the 13:00 and 14:00 UTC prints. The market resolved on the announced change.
The +25 bp bucket settled Yes $1.00 (a $232,653 book); no change — the heaviest book at $250,178 — resolved No; the event closed at $617,028 cumulative volume with $107,204 on the final day. Full table below.
The Bank's calendar lists Wednesday, December 9 as the last 2026 date, so a postponed October announcement would have to conclude before it to still count for this market.
What the verified October Polymarket event covers
The exact public event reviewed for this guide is titled Bank of Canada Decision in October? (event ID 708477). It resolved on the change in the target for the overnight rate produced by the October 2026 announcement — a 25-basis-point increase — with official Bank of Canada information as the named source. The five buckets settled as follows:
50+ bps decrease
A decrease classified in the 50-basis-point-or-larger bucket after the written rounding rules.
25 bps decrease
A smaller qualifying decrease classified as 25 basis points. One basis point is 0.01 percentage point.
No change
No qualifying change from the specified announcement — also the fallback bucket if the announcement is cancelled or postponed past the next scheduled date.
25 bps increase
A qualifying increase classified as 25 basis points — the winning bucket, settled Yes $1.00, taking the target to 2.50%.
50+ bps increase
An increase classified in the 50-basis-point-or-larger bucket after rounding.
Five binaries, one decision
Each outcome is a separate yes/no order book, so displayed YES prices need not sum to exactly 100¢.
September 26 snapshot (kept for record — 2026-09-26 14:09:19 UTC Gamma check)
| Bucket | YES | Bid / Ask | Contract volume | Liquidity |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 50+ bps decrease | 0.1¢ | — / 0.1¢ | $4,306 | $7,760 |
| 25 bps decrease | 0.1¢ | — / 0.1¢ | $15,893 | $8,778 |
| No change | 61.3¢ | 60.4¢ / 62.1¢ | $46,274 | $6,933 |
| 25 bps increase | 39.1¢ | 38.6¢ / 39.5¢ | $35,391 | $11,818 |
| 50+ bps increase | 0.2¢ | 0.1¢ / 0.3¢ | $14,651 | $8,020 |
$116,475
Cumulative event volume at the snapshot — already past the roughly $95,600 the September event showed at settlement, with a month still to run.
$42,532
Event liquidity, spread across all five books — enough depth that quoted prices are meaningful rather than a single stale order.
$9,111
24-hour volume at the snapshot; rate-decision events typically compound volume fastest in the final week and on decision day itself.
October 28 settlement record — the hike tail converted
The event closed on decision day. Final state re-verified from the public Gamma API at 2026-10-28 16:35 UTC; the five contract volumes sum to the event total:
| Bucket | Final YES | Contract volume | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| 50+ bps decrease | $0.00 | $59,730 | Settled — No |
| 25 bps decrease | $0.00 | $49,299 | Settled — No |
| No change | $0.00 | $250,178 | Settled — No (heaviest book) |
| 25 bps increase | $1.00 | $232,653 | Settled — Yes |
| 50+ bps increase | $0.00 | $25,169 | Settled — No |
$617,028
Cumulative event volume at close — more than six times the roughly $95,600 the September event showed at settlement, with $107,204 (about 17%) traded on the final day alone.
The heaviest book lost
No change ended as the largest single contract by volume ($250,178) and still resolved to $0.00: month-long conviction in a seventh hold is not the announced outcome.
October 19–20 · the inversion
The hike bucket ran 15.3¢ → 81.6¢ between the October 19 04:00 and October 20 00:00 UTC prints; no change fell 84.0¢ → 18.4¢. The board never flipped back.
Decision morning
At the 13:00 UTC print — the last full hour before the release — the hike traded 83.7¢ against 14.1¢ for no change, after an 89.8¢ open and a 75.4¢ morning dip; the release flipped it to 99.95¢ by the 14:00 UTC print.
Bank of Canada October market resolution: seven rules that matter
1. The overnight rate target is the unit
The event measures the change in the target for the overnight rate produced by the October 2026 announcement — not the Bank Rate markup, not mortgage rates, not any other instrument.
2. Compare before and after the announcement
Resolution uses the change relative to the level before this announcement. Today's 2.25% is the current baseline, not a fixed settlement input.
3. Official source resolves
Official Bank of Canada information — including the statement or release from the October announcement listed on the official calendar — is the named resolution source, and the market may resolve as soon as that release is issued.
4. The upper bound counts if a range applies
If the specified rate is expressed as an upper and lower bound, the relevant change is the change to the upper bound. Canada's target is a single rate, so this clause is dormant but written.
5. Odd-sized moves round
Changes under 25 bp count as 25 bp; changes over 25 bp round to the nearest 25, ties away from zero. A 10 bp hike is a +25 outcome; a 37.5 bp hike is +50.
6. Postponement and cancellation fallbacks are dated
A postponement before the December 9 announcement resolves on the postponed announcement's outcome; a cancellation, or a postponement past December 9, resolves to No Change.
7. Emergency actions sit outside
Emergency rate changes not resulting from the specified announcement are not considered — an inter-meeting move does not settle this market by itself.
These seven rules are why a meeting-specific guide beats a generic odds table: two Bank of Canada markets can settle differently on the same announcement if their meeting windows, fallbacks, or rounding clauses differ. The September hub shows the same architecture settling cleanly on a hold.
Why the board leaned hold — until October 19 (kept for record)
The case below is the September record as this hub published it on September 26, when no change traded at 61.3¢. It is kept unchanged: this is the reasoning the market priced before the inversion, not a post-decision explanation.
Core inflation is still near target
September's release put CPI around 3% mainly on persistently higher gasoline prices, with ex-gasoline inflation at 2.2% and core measures close to 2% in July — the cleanest argument for patience.
The recovery is broad but spare capacity remains
Q2 GDP rose 3.3% with broad-based consumption, a housing rebound and sharply higher exports and business investment — yet labour demand “remains subdued” and indicators still point to excess supply.
Tariffs cloud the growth side
New US tariffs and Canadian counter-measures, announced after the breakdown of trade talks, “pose risks to the sustainability of the recovery” — a reason not to lean on the economy with higher rates.
But the inflation risk language hardened
“Upside risks to the Bank's inflation forecast have increased”: the Middle East conflict keeps oil and refined-product margins high, and the longer that lasts, “the greater the risk of spillover” — the core of the 39.1¢ hike book.
“Prepared to adjust monetary policy as needed”
The September statement's closing guidance keeps an explicit option open in either direction, which is exactly the language a market prices as live optionality rather than a committed pause.
Six holds set the base rate of belief
The target has not moved since October 2025. A market pricing a seventh hold is pricing institutional inertia — and the ECB, Fed, and Bank of Japan hiking in September is what keeps the minority book honest.
What decision-day searches land on now
The “what did they decide” wave
“Bank of Canada October 2026 decision” searches concentrate on October 28 itself — they now land on a settled record with the official outcome, the settlement table, and the full price path.
The “why” wave
The release's own reasoning — persistently elevated oil prices and refinery margins lifting inflation, Q2 GDP at 3.3%, solid consumer spending — is quoted in Sources below; “why did the Bank of Canada hike” queries are answerable from the record.
A full central-bank week
The Fed decides October 27–28 (statement due 18:00 UTC on the 28th) and the Bank of Japan meets October 29–30, bracketing the BoC announcement. Cross-institution searches (“central bank decisions this week”) lift all three hubs together.
What comes next
The next scheduled announcement is December 9, 2026, and the next Monetary Policy Report is January 27, 2027; the September settled record shows how these pages close out a cycle.
Research workflow for the October Bank of Canada decision
Start with the official calendar
The Bank's key-interest-rate page lists every 2026 and 2027 announcement date with its publications: October 28 with the MPR, December 9 next. Verify it before trusting any secondary date.
Confirm the baseline
Check the official policy-rate table, not a screenshot or an article: the level before the announcement is what the contracts measure against.
Read all five questions
Each bucket is its own market with its own book. A summary headline like “60% chance of a hold” hides four other prices and their spreads.
Measure the books
Record bid, ask, depth, volume, and a UTC timestamp together. A lone last-trade price is the weakest possible evidence.
Compare institutions carefully
The Fed decides October 27–28, the Bank of Canada October 28, the Bank of Japan October 29–30 — same week, different instruments, calendars, and rules. Fed odds, the Fed October hub and the BoJ October hub cover their own events.
Separate context from settlement
CPI, jobs, dissents and the MPR are context. Settlement runs on the announced change in the overnight rate target and the written fallbacks — nothing else.
Investigate sudden moves
A bucket that jumps on no news is worth checking against data releases and order-book depth before treating it as information.
Keep probability claims bounded
Prices are crowd sentiment at a timestamp. This page never presents them as the official outcome, and neither should you.
Frequently asked questions
What did the Bank of Canada decide on October 28, 2026?
The Bank raised the target for the overnight rate by 25 basis points to 2.50% — the first change since the October 29, 2025 cut — with the Bank Rate at 2.75% and the deposit rate at 2.45%, announced together with the October Monetary Policy Report. Under the Bank's published convention a change takes effect the following day. The next scheduled announcement is December 9, 2026.
When is the Bank of Canada October 2026 decision?
Wednesday, October 28, 2026. The interest rate announcement is published together with the Monetary Policy Report — the fourth and final MPR round of 2026 after January 28, April 29, and July 15. The next scheduled announcement after that is Wednesday, December 9, 2026. Since 2021, a rate change takes effect the day after its announcement.
What is the Bank of Canada's interest rate right now?
The target for the overnight rate is 2.50% after the October 28, 2026 increase, with the Bank Rate at 2.75% and the deposit rate at 2.45%. The official policy-rate table showed 2.25% at every announcement from January 28 through September 2, 2026, following the 25-basis-point cut of October 29, 2025; the October 28, 2026 announcement ended that stretch with a 25-basis-point increase.
How did the October 28 Polymarket event settle?
Polymarket's five-outcome event settled to a 25-basis-point increase: that bucket closed at Yes $1.00 with a $232,653 book, while no change — the heaviest book at $250,178 — resolved to No. The event closed at $617,028 cumulative volume with $107,204 traded on the final day. Earlier displayed prices, including the September 26 snapshot at 61.3¢ for no change, were crowd sentiment at their timestamps.
What did the Bank of Canada decide on September 2, 2026?
The Bank held the target for the overnight rate at 2.25% (Bank Rate 2.50%, deposit rate 2.20%). The press release cited a broadening recovery — second-quarter GDP up 3.3% and the July unemployment rate edging down to 6.4% — against increased upside risks to inflation from high energy prices and new US tariffs, and said Governing Council is prepared to adjust monetary policy as needed.
Which interest rate change resolves the October market?
The event resolves on the change in basis points in the target for the overnight rate resulting from the October 28, 2026 announcement, relative to the level in force before that announcement. The named resolution source is official Bank of Canada information, including the statement or release from the October announcement, and the market may resolve as soon as that statement is issued.
How are odd-sized Bank of Canada changes classified?
Under the event's written rules, changes smaller than 25 basis points count as 25-basis-point moves, and changes larger than 25 basis points round to the nearest 25, with an exact tie rounded away from zero — so a 10 bp hike would count as 25 bps and a 37.5 bp hike as 50 bps.
What happens if the October announcement is postponed or cancelled?
If the announcement is postponed to a date before the next scheduled announcement (December 9, 2026), the market resolves on the outcome of that postponed announcement. If it is cancelled, or postponed so far that no decision is announced by the start of the December announcement, the market resolves to the “No Change” bucket. Emergency rate changes not resulting from the specified announcement are not considered.
When will this Bank of Canada October 2026 guide be refreshed?
The cycle is complete: this decision-day record shipped October 28, 2026, with the official release re-fetched and the market re-verified after close. The next scheduled announcement is December 9, 2026, and the next Monetary Policy Report is January 27, 2027.
More live odds on this topic
- Fed rate odds for every open FOMC meeting — the US counterpart calendar, with implied basis points and Kalshi side by side.
- Fed October 2026 decision hub — October 27–28, markets favor another 25 bp hike.
- Bank of Japan October 2026 decision hub — October 29–30, pause favored after the September hike.
- Bank of England November 2026 decision hub — November 5, markets favor a 25 bp hike to 4%.
- Bank of Canada September 2026 settled record — the hold, the settlement table, and the rules in action.
Sources and methodology
- Bank of Canada, Bank of Canada raises the policy rate by 25 basis points to 2½% — October 28, 2026 press release — fetched October 28, 2026 (overnight target 2.50%, Bank Rate 2.75%, deposit 2.45%; Monetary Policy Report published the same day; next announcement December 9, 2026; next MPR January 27, 2027).
- Bank of Canada, Policy interest rate — key interest rate and target dates — fetched September 26, 2026 (target 2.25% as of September 2; October 28 announcement with Monetary Policy Report; December 9 next; last change October 29, 2025).
- Bank of Canada, Bank of Canada maintains the policy rate at 2¼% — September 2, 2026 press release — fetched September 26, 2026 (GDP 3.3%, unemployment 6.4%, CPI around 3% on gasoline, ex-gasoline 2.2%, upside risks increased).
- Polymarket, Gamma API event record and public event page — five buckets, volumes, prices, and full resolution wording, fetched 2026-09-26 14:09:19 UTC; closed-state re-check October 28, 2026 16:35 UTC (+25 bp Yes $1.00, event $617,028).
- Polymarket CLOB, public price-history endpoints for the +25 bp and no-change books — hourly reads on October 28 and 4-hourly reads since September 24, fetched October 28, 2026 (the October 19–20 inversion and the decision-morning prints).
- Internal: the settled September hub for the prior-meeting record and settlement history.
Methodology: every market figure on this page is a timestamped read from the public Gamma API or CLOB price history at the moments named; every official fact was re-fetched from bankofcanada.ca on publication day and again on decision day. The September 26 snapshot is preserved unchanged. Nothing here is live, and nothing here is financial advice. Next cycle: December 9, 2026 announcement.