Bank of Canada October 2026 Decision: A Hold at 2.25% Is Favored
The official October 28 calendar, the verified five-outcome Polymarket board, the resolution rules that govern settlement, and the September record that explains why a hold leads while a hike trades close behind.
Published 2026-09-26 · Snapshot 2026-09-26 14:09:19 UTC · Next scheduled refresh: ~October 21, 2026 (after the September CPI print) · Final pre-meeting refresh: October 26–27 · Decision: October 28, 2026
The answer first
The Bank of Canada's next interest rate decision is due Wednesday, October 28, 2026, published together with the Monetary Policy Report — the fourth and final forecast round of 2026, and per the Bank's published convention a change announced that day takes effect the following day. The target for the overnight rate stands at 2.25%, unchanged at every 2026 meeting so far, with the Bank Rate at 2.50% and the deposit rate at 2.20%. Polymarket's five-outcome market for the meeting prices no change at 61.3¢ against 39.1¢ for a 25-basis-point increase to 2.50% as of the 2026-09-26 14:09:19 UTC snapshot below, with cumulative event volume at $116,475 and $42,532 of liquidity — the crowd leans toward a seventh straight hold while keeping a substantial hike tail, because the September 2 press release called the recovery broadening but judged that upside risks to inflation “have increased”. The market settles on the change in the overnight rate target that the October 28 announcement produces relative to its level before that announcement, using official Bank of Canada information, and it can resolve as soon as the statement is issued. A price is crowd sentiment, not the official outcome.
Where the October meeting sits in the 2026 calendar
The 2.25% baseline is official
The Bank's policy-rate page lists the target for the overnight rate at 2.25% as of September 2, 2026 — the same level at all six 2026 announcements. The reviewed contracts measure the change this announcement produces against exactly that kind of pre-announcement level.
September has decided
The September 2 announcement was a hold, with Governing Council pointing to second-quarter GDP up 3.3% and a 6.4% July unemployment rate against increased upside inflation risks. The September decision hub holds the full settled record, including the settlement table.
A Monetary Policy Report lands with the decision
October 28 is an MPR round: new quarterly forecasts are published with the announcement, the first since July's report and the last of 2026. Forecast rounds historically carry the richest search and media attention.
One decision, five buckets
The exact Polymarket event splits the outcome into −50+ bp, −25 bp, no change, +25 bp, and +50+ bp — five independent yes/no order books under negRisk architecture, not one ranked list.
Official Bank of Canada October 2026 timeline
The official policy-rate table records a 25-basis-point cut to 2.25% on this date. Every announcement since — December 10, 2025 and all six 2026 dates — has kept the target there.
The 2026 columns of the official table read 2.25% across January 28, March 18, April 29, June 10, July 15, and September 2 — the longest unchanged stretch since the Bank began publishing its current schedule page.
Governing Council left the target at 2.25% while citing second-quarter GDP up 3.3%, broad-based consumption and export strength, unemployment easing to 6.4%, CPI around 3% on gasoline, ex-gasoline inflation at 2.2% and core near 2% — and “upside risks to the Bank's inflation forecast have increased” on the Middle East energy shock and new tariffs. Polymarket's September event settled to no change.
The ECB raised rates 25 bp on September 10, the Fed followed with a 25 bp hike on September 16, and the Bank of Japan hiked on September 18 — leaving the Bank of Canada (with the Bank of England) among the holdouts as October approaches.
The official calendar still names October 28 (announcement plus MPR, December 9 next), the rate page still shows 2.25%, and the verified October event is open with $116,475 cumulative volume, the no-change bucket at 61.3¢ the largest book.
Canada's September jobs report and September CPI print are the last major data before the meeting, alongside the Week Ahead calendars. They can move expectations and order books, but none of them substitutes for the official October 28 announcement as resolution evidence.
The decision and new forecasts are published together. The reviewed market may resolve as soon as the statement or release is issued; the postponement and cancellation fallbacks below apply only if the announcement itself moves.
The Bank's calendar lists Wednesday, December 9 as the last 2026 date, so a postponed October announcement would have to conclude before it to still count for this market.
What the verified October Polymarket event covers
The exact public event reviewed for this guide is titled Bank of Canada Decision in October? (event ID 708477, open since mid-July 2026, scheduled to end October 28, 2026). It resolves on the change in the target for the overnight rate resulting from the October 2026 interest rate announcement, relative to the level before that announcement, with official Bank of Canada information as the named source. The five buckets:
50+ bps decrease
A decrease classified in the 50-basis-point-or-larger bucket after the written rounding rules.
25 bps decrease
A smaller qualifying decrease classified as 25 basis points. One basis point is 0.01 percentage point.
No change
No qualifying change from the specified announcement — also the fallback bucket if the announcement is cancelled or postponed past the next scheduled date.
25 bps increase
A qualifying increase classified as 25 basis points — the bucket trading at 39.1¢, which would take the target to 2.50%.
50+ bps increase
An increase classified in the 50-basis-point-or-larger bucket after rounding.
Five binaries, one decision
Each outcome is a separate yes/no order book, so displayed YES prices need not sum to exactly 100¢.
September 26 snapshot (2026-09-26 14:09:19 UTC Gamma check)
| Bucket | YES | Bid / Ask | Contract volume | Liquidity |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 50+ bps decrease | 0.1¢ | — / 0.1¢ | $4,306 | $7,760 |
| 25 bps decrease | 0.1¢ | — / 0.1¢ | $15,893 | $8,778 |
| No change | 61.3¢ | 60.4¢ / 62.1¢ | $46,274 | $6,933 |
| 25 bps increase | 39.1¢ | 38.6¢ / 39.5¢ | $35,391 | $11,818 |
| 50+ bps increase | 0.2¢ | 0.1¢ / 0.3¢ | $14,651 | $8,020 |
$116,475
Cumulative event volume at the snapshot — already past the roughly $95,600 the September event showed at settlement, with a month still to run.
$42,532
Event liquidity, spread across all five books — enough depth that quoted prices are meaningful rather than a single stale order.
$9,111
24-hour volume at the snapshot; rate-decision events typically compound volume fastest in the final week and on decision day itself.
Bank of Canada October market resolution: seven rules that matter
1. The overnight rate target is the unit
The event measures the change in the target for the overnight rate produced by the October 2026 announcement — not the Bank Rate markup, not mortgage rates, not any other instrument.
2. Compare before and after the announcement
Resolution uses the change relative to the level before this announcement. Today's 2.25% is the current baseline, not a fixed settlement input.
3. Official source resolves
Official Bank of Canada information — including the statement or release from the October announcement listed on the official calendar — is the named resolution source, and the market may resolve as soon as that release is issued.
4. The upper bound counts if a range applies
If the specified rate is expressed as an upper and lower bound, the relevant change is the change to the upper bound. Canada's target is a single rate, so this clause is dormant but written.
5. Odd-sized moves round
Changes under 25 bp count as 25 bp; changes over 25 bp round to the nearest 25, ties away from zero. A 10 bp hike is a +25 outcome; a 37.5 bp hike is +50.
6. Postponement and cancellation fallbacks are dated
A postponement before the December 9 announcement resolves on the postponed announcement's outcome; a cancellation, or a postponement past December 9, resolves to No Change.
7. Emergency actions sit outside
Emergency rate changes not resulting from the specified announcement are not considered — an inter-meeting move does not settle this market by itself.
These seven rules are why a meeting-specific guide beats a generic odds table: two Bank of Canada markets can settle differently on the same announcement if their meeting windows, fallbacks, or rounding clauses differ. The September hub shows the same architecture settling cleanly on a hold.
Why the board leans hold — with a real hike tail
Core inflation is still near target
September's release put CPI around 3% mainly on persistently higher gasoline prices, with ex-gasoline inflation at 2.2% and core measures close to 2% in July — the cleanest argument for patience.
The recovery is broad but spare capacity remains
Q2 GDP rose 3.3% with broad-based consumption, a housing rebound and sharply higher exports and business investment — yet labour demand “remains subdued” and indicators still point to excess supply.
Tariffs cloud the growth side
New US tariffs and Canadian counter-measures, announced after the breakdown of trade talks, “pose risks to the sustainability of the recovery” — a reason not to lean on the economy with higher rates.
But the inflation risk language hardened
“Upside risks to the Bank's inflation forecast have increased”: the Middle East conflict keeps oil and refined-product margins high, and the longer that lasts, “the greater the risk of spillover” — the core of the 39.1¢ hike book.
“Prepared to adjust monetary policy as needed”
The September statement's closing guidance keeps an explicit option open in either direction, which is exactly the language a market prices as live optionality rather than a committed pause.
Six holds set the base rate of belief
The target has not moved since October 2025. A market pricing a seventh hold is pricing institutional inertia — and the ECB, Fed, and Bank of Japan hiking in September is what keeps the minority book honest.
Why search demand should rise before October 28
The “next decision” wave
The settled September hub keeps collecting “Bank of Canada interest rate decision” searches; its answer and timeline now route that intent here as the next decision approaches.
The October data wave
The September jobs report and September CPI print land before the meeting. Inflation releases reliably spike “Bank of Canada rate” queries, and a hot print would push the 39.1¢ hike book into focus.
A full central-bank week
The Fed decides October 27–28 and the Bank of Japan October 29–30, bracketing the BoC announcement. Cross-institution searches (“central bank decisions this week”) lift all three hubs together.
Decision week itself
“Bank of Canada October 2026 decision” searches concentrate in the days around October 28, when this page will already be indexed and refreshed with the final pre-meeting board and the MPR context.
Research workflow for the October Bank of Canada decision
Start with the official calendar
The Bank's key-interest-rate page lists every 2026 and 2027 announcement date with its publications: October 28 with the MPR, December 9 next. Verify it before trusting any secondary date.
Confirm the baseline
Check the official policy-rate table, not a screenshot or an article: the level before the announcement is what the contracts measure against.
Read all five questions
Each bucket is its own market with its own book. A summary headline like “60% chance of a hold” hides four other prices and their spreads.
Measure the books
Record bid, ask, depth, volume, and a UTC timestamp together. A lone last-trade price is the weakest possible evidence.
Compare institutions carefully
The Fed decides October 27–28, the Bank of Canada October 28, the Bank of Japan October 29–30 — same week, different instruments, calendars, and rules. Fed odds, the Fed October hub and the BoJ October hub cover their own events.
Separate context from settlement
CPI, jobs, dissents and the MPR are context. Settlement runs on the announced change in the overnight rate target and the written fallbacks — nothing else.
Investigate sudden moves
A bucket that jumps on no news is worth checking against data releases and order-book depth before treating it as information.
Keep probability claims bounded
Prices are crowd sentiment at a timestamp. This page never presents them as the official outcome, and neither should you.
Frequently asked questions
When is the Bank of Canada October 2026 decision?
Wednesday, October 28, 2026. The interest rate announcement is published together with the Monetary Policy Report — the fourth and final MPR round of 2026 after January 28, April 29, and July 15. The next scheduled announcement after that is Wednesday, December 9, 2026. Since 2021, a rate change takes effect the day after its announcement.
What is the Bank of Canada's interest rate right now?
The target for the overnight rate is 2.25%, with the Bank Rate at 2.50% and the deposit rate at 2.20%. The official policy-rate table, verified on September 26, 2026, shows 2.25% at every 2026 announcement — January 28, March 18, April 29, June 10, July 15, and September 2 — and the last change was a 25-basis-point cut to 2.25% on October 29, 2025.
What do prediction markets price for the October 28 BoC meeting?
As of the 2026-09-26 14:09:19 UTC snapshot, Polymarket's five-outcome event prices no change at 61.3¢ (bid 60.4¢ / ask 62.1¢) against 39.1¢ for a 25-basis-point increase to 2.50%, with roughly $116,475 in cumulative volume. Displayed prices are crowd sentiment at a timestamp — they are not the official outcome and can move immediately.
What did the Bank of Canada decide on September 2, 2026?
The Bank held the target for the overnight rate at 2.25% (Bank Rate 2.50%, deposit rate 2.20%). The press release cited a broadening recovery — second-quarter GDP up 3.3% and the July unemployment rate edging down to 6.4% — against increased upside risks to inflation from high energy prices and new US tariffs, and said Governing Council is prepared to adjust monetary policy as needed.
Which interest rate change resolves the October market?
The event resolves on the change in basis points in the target for the overnight rate resulting from the October 28, 2026 announcement, relative to the level in force before that announcement. The named resolution source is official Bank of Canada information, including the statement or release from the October announcement, and the market may resolve as soon as that statement is issued.
How are odd-sized Bank of Canada changes classified?
Under the event's written rules, changes smaller than 25 basis points count as 25-basis-point moves, and changes larger than 25 basis points round to the nearest 25, with an exact tie rounded away from zero — so a 10 bp hike would count as 25 bps and a 37.5 bp hike as 50 bps.
What happens if the October announcement is postponed or cancelled?
If the announcement is postponed to a date before the next scheduled announcement (December 9, 2026), the market resolves on the outcome of that postponed announcement. If it is cancelled, or postponed so far that no decision is announced by the start of the December announcement, the market resolves to the “No Change” bucket. Emergency rate changes not resulting from the specified announcement are not considered.
When will this Bank of Canada October 2026 guide be refreshed?
A snapshot refresh is planned for about October 21, 2026, after the September CPI print — the last inflation reading before the meeting — with a final pre-meeting refresh on October 26–27 and a decision-day update on October 28. An earlier review would follow an official calendar change, a market rule change, or a major reprice.
More live odds on this topic
- Fed rate odds for every open FOMC meeting — the US counterpart calendar, with implied basis points and Kalshi side by side.
- Fed October 2026 decision hub — October 27–28, markets favor another 25 bp hike.
- Bank of Japan October 2026 decision hub — October 29–30, pause favored after the September hike.
- Bank of England November 2026 decision hub — November 5, markets favor a 25 bp hike to 4%.
- Bank of Canada September 2026 settled record — the hold, the settlement table, and the rules in action.
Sources and methodology
- Bank of Canada, Policy interest rate — key interest rate and target dates — fetched September 26, 2026 (target 2.25% as of September 2; October 28 announcement with Monetary Policy Report; December 9 next; last change October 29, 2025).
- Bank of Canada, Bank of Canada maintains the policy rate at 2¼% — September 2, 2026 press release — fetched September 26, 2026 (GDP 3.3%, unemployment 6.4%, CPI around 3% on gasoline, ex-gasoline 2.2%, upside risks increased).
- Polymarket, Gamma API event record and public event page — five buckets, volumes, prices, and full resolution wording, fetched 2026-09-26 14:09:19 UTC.
- Internal: the settled September hub for the prior-meeting record and settlement history.
Methodology: every market figure on this page is a timestamped read from the public Gamma API at the moment above, bounded and re-verified at build time; every official fact was re-fetched from bankofcanada.ca on publication day. Nothing here is live, and nothing here is financial advice. Scheduled refreshes: ~October 21 (post-CPI snapshot), October 26–27 (final pre-meeting), October 28 (decision day).