Russia Duma Election 2026 Results: United Russia 355 Seats
The official results of the September 18–20 vote, how each of Polymarket's three State Duma boards settled, the rules that separated them, and the final volume totals after the results-day surge.
Published August 21, 2026 · Election: September 18–20, 2026 · Settlement record: September 21, 2026 · Next check: second-place settlement confirmation, ~September 28, 2026
The answer first
Russia's parliamentary election was held September 18–20, 2026, with voting closed on the main day of September 20. Preliminary official results at 96.95% of protocols reported (as of 14:32 Moscow time, September 21) show United Russia winning 355 of 450 seats with 57.83% of the vote — a constitutional majority — with the Communist Party (KPRF) second on 40 seats (13.76%), LDPR third on 25 (9.01%), New People fourth on 20 (7.96%), and A Just Russia fifth on 4 (5.00%). Turnout was 59.32%. Two of Polymarket's three Duma boards settled on September 20–21: United Russia resolved Yes at $1.00 in both the winner board and the seats-gained board, against combined final volume of about $58.1 million across the three boards. The second-place board, where KPRF trades at 99.95¢, remains open pending definitive results. These are recorded market settlements and reported vote totals, not forecasts or guarantees.
Official Russia 2026 election timeline
United Russia won 324 of 450 seats with 49.82% of the vote, keeping its constitutional majority. More than four parties crossed the proportional threshold for the first time since 2003, with New People entering the Duma. Non-systemic opposition figures described the 2021 results as falsified and unfair.
Alexei Navalny, the leader of the non-systemic opposition, died in prison. Since the 2022 invasion of Ukraine, opposition politicians have faced imprisonment, foreign-agent designations, or exile — context that shapes how markets price a managed electoral field.
President Vladimir Putin signed a decree scheduling the election for September 20, 2026, fixing the legal anchor for the three-day voting window.
Russia's Central Election Commission published the calendar of election-preparation events. Interfax reporting cited a CEC budget of about 27.4 billion rubles, of which more than 23.3 billion rubles is directed to the parliamentary election.
Verified the official dates and the three exact Polymarket events, and recorded the timestamped market snapshot below. Party labels, prices, and statuses are documented as of about 14:00–14:05 UTC.
Re-verified the official voting dates and re-snapshotted all three boards at about 14:05 UTC: combined volume up to about $32.6 million, United Russia at 99¢ in the winner board and 76.5¢ in the seats-gained board, KPRF at 92¢ for second place. Pre-vote visitors now see current data rather than August state.
Voting ran across September 18–20, 2026, closing on the main day of September 20. The reviewed Polymarket events carried an API end time of September 20.
The winner and seats-gained boards resolved United Russia Yes = $1.00, with combined final volume of about $58.1 million across the three boards. This record documents the settlements, the preliminary official results at 96.95% reporting, and the one board still open.
The second-place board (KPRF at 99.95¢) remains open pending definitive results under the written rules: a consensus of credible reporting, an official-source fallback, and a September 30, 2027 deadline that would resolve each market to "Other." The next check confirms its final resolution once official totals are complete.
How the three boards settled: September 21 record
Voting closed September 20 and the results-day wave repriced everything. At the September 21, 2026 settlement check (about 14:02 UTC), the seats-gained and winner boards were closed and settled with United Russia at Yes = $1.00, and the second-place board remained open with KPRF at 99.95¢. Combined final cumulative volume reached about $58.1 million — up from about $32.6 million at the September 15 pre-vote snapshot — with the seats-gained board alone printing $10.35 million of 24-hour volume around settlement.
Seats-gained board — settled, ER Yes $1.00
Event id 149589 closed with United Russia resolved at Yes = $1.00; every other party contract resolved No. Final totals: $52,078,964 cumulative volume, $10,346,784 in the final 24 hours.
Winner board — settled, ER Yes $1.00
Event id 149565 closed with United Russia resolved at Yes = $1.00. Final totals: $5,073,084 cumulative volume, $449,886 in the final 24 hours.
Second-place board — open, KPRF 99.95¢
Event id 403883 remained open at the check: $945,066 cumulative volume, $96,430 liquidity, $183,368 in 24 hours, with KPRF's Yes price at 99.95¢ — consistent with the preliminary official results but awaiting definitive totals.
Settlement summary table
| Board (event id) | Status at Sept 21, 14:02 UTC | Resolution | Final cumulative volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| Most seats gained (149589) | Closed, settled | United Russia Yes = $1.00 | $52,078,964 |
| Winner (149565) | Closed, settled | United Russia Yes = $1.00 | $5,073,084 |
| Second place (403883) | Open | KPRF 99.95¢ (unresolved) | $945,066 |
Historical: the September 15 final pre-vote snapshot
Seats-gained board — $28.26M
"Which party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?" (event id 149589): about $28,255,179 cumulative volume, $512,744 in 24 hours, $2,275,690 liquidity at the snapshot.
Winner board — $3.73M
"Russia Parliamentary Election Winner" (event id 149565): about $3,731,428 cumulative volume, $20,149 in 24 hours, $824,474 liquidity at the snapshot.
Second-place board — $620.2K
"Russia Parliamentary Election: 2nd Place" (event id 403883): about $620,198 cumulative volume, $50,146 in 24 hours, $630,919 liquidity at the snapshot.
Historical: seats-gained board — displayed YES prices (September 15)
| Party contract | YES price | Contract volume |
|---|---|---|
| United Russia (ER) | 76.5¢ | $10,199,825 |
| New People (NL) | 19.85¢ | $3,024,918 |
| LDPR | 2.9¢ | $3,862,925 |
| Communist Party (KPRF) | 0.95¢ | $2,010,468 |
| A Just Russia – For Truth (SRZP) | 0.15¢ | $2,719,112 |
| Rodina | 0.05¢ | $3,034,612 |
| Yabloko | 0.4¢ | $2,068,753 |
| Civic Platform (GP) | 0.05¢ | $1,334,566 |
Historical: winner and second-place boards — displayed YES prices (September 15)
| Party contract | Winner board | 2nd-place board |
|---|---|---|
| United Russia (ER) | 99¢ | 0.6¢ |
| Communist Party (KPRF) | 0.65¢ | 92¢ |
| LDPR | 0.05¢ | 3.4¢ |
| New People (NL) | 0.35¢ | 3.4¢ |
| Yabloko | 0.15¢ | 0.05¢ |
What changed since the September 15 final pre-vote snapshot
Between the final pre-vote check and the September 21 settlement record, the boards moved from open pricing to resolution:
Volume surged into settlement
Combined cumulative volume grew from about $32.6 million to about $58.1 million (+78%), with the seats-gained board printing $10.35 million in the final 24 hours — results-day activity dwarfed the pre-vote pace of about $583,000.
The seats-gained discount resolved
United Russia settled from 76.5¢ to Yes = $1.00: official totals showed it gaining 45 seats (310 outgoing to 355 won), more than any other party. New People, the 19.85¢ alternative lane, gained five seats and resolved No — the gain-vs-win wording spread that this board priced all cycle ended up mattering for sizing, not direction.
Second place near-certain, still open
KPRF moved from 92¢ to 99.95¢ as results confirmed the Communists in second place, but the board had not closed at the September 21 check — the written rules wait for a consensus of credible reporting on definitive results.
Official results landed
Voting closed September 20 with turnout of 59.32% (+7.60 points). Five parties cleared the 5% list threshold; United Russia's 355 seats restore a constitutional majority (300 of 450 needed), with totals at 96.95% of protocols reported still preliminary.
What the three boards actually measure
The interesting part of this event family is that the boards ask three different questions about one election, and their prices legitimately disagree:
1. Winner: most seats won
Resolves to the party that wins the greatest number of the 450 seats. United Russia entered the campaign holding 310 outgoing seats after its 324-seat, 49.82% result in 2021, and traded at 99¢ here at the September 15 snapshot.
2. Seats gained: most seats added
Resolves to the party that gains the greatest number of seats "compared to before the election" — a different measurement when the ruling party already holds a supermajority. United Russia traded at only 76.5¢ here, with New People — which won 13 seats in 2021 and holds 15 outgoing — at 19.85¢.
3. Second place: the real contest
Resolves to the party finishing second after a defined ranking (seats, then valid votes, then alphabetical abbreviation). KPRF, which holds 56 outgoing seats, traded at 92¢, ahead of LDPR (3.4¢) and New People (3.4¢).
A 99¢ price in one board and a 76.5¢ price for the same party in another is not a contradiction or an arbitrage gift: the contracts settle on different measurements. Comparing boards without reading their rules is the most common analytical error on multi-board election events. The political prediction markets guide covers this class of mistakes in depth; the gain-vs-win wording spread on these exact boards shows the measurement detail in practice; the election betting odds primer shows how to convert prices into implied probabilities with the same caution.
Resolution rules that matter
1. Consensus, then official fallback
All three boards resolve on "a consensus of credible reporting." If reporting is ambiguous, resolution falls back solely to official Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission — the body organizing the vote.
2. The Other deadline
If results are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, each reviewed market resolves to "Other" — a 12-plus-month settlement tail that long-dated position sizing should respect.
3. Tie-breaks are mechanical
Seat ties break first by total valid votes received, then by alphabetical order of the listed party abbreviation. The second-place board applies the same ranking to decide who occupies second position.
4. Coalition accounting
If a listed party contests as part of a joint coalition, its contract represents the whole coalition's seats. If two listed parties merge into one coalition, the contract of the one that won more seats last election represents it.
5. Seats, not vote share
Every reviewed board is decided "solely on the number of seats" won or gained in the State Duma. A party's national vote percentage never directly settles any of these contracts.
6. Save the current wording
Labels, placeholder contracts, and rule text can change before September. A careful research record stores the exact question, description, status, link, and timestamp — not only a screenshot of one price.
Context that shapes the boards
The election takes place in a constrained political environment, and the boards price that. United Russia is the ruling party led by former president Dmitry Medvedev; the systemic opposition parties in the Duma are the CPRF (Zyuganov), LDPR (Slutsky), A Just Russia (Mironov), and New People (Nechayev). The non-systemic opposition is largely imprisoned, designated as foreign agents, or in exile after Navalny's death in custody in February 2024 and the post-2022 wave of repression. Wikipedia's summary of the 2021 election — which independent observers described as neither free nor fair — is the neutral starting point for why market prices assign the ruling party such high winner-board odds. A high price documents what traders expect given the known field and rules; it is not an endorsement of the process or a guarantee of the outcome.
Why the results wave matters now
This page was published 28 days before the voting window, received its final pre-vote refresh on September 15, and now carries the settlement record one day after voting closed — the full demand arc it targeted from the start: date checks, then board prices, then results and settlement queries. The results wave typically outlasts the pre-vote wave because official totals, final seat assignments, and market resolutions keep arriving for days after polls close.
Results-first wave
"Russian election results 2026" resolves to United Russia 355 of 450 seats on 57.83% — the answer now stated in the title, intro, and results record above.
Settlement wave
Attention on prediction markets shifts from prices to payouts: how each board resolved, at what final volumes, and which contracts remain open. The record above documents all three.
Reference value
The page now stands as the timestamped 2026 record — settlement prices, final volumes, and reported totals — the kind of primary documentation later prediction-market accuracy reviews draw on.
Research workflow for the Russia boards
Start from the official calendar
Verify dates against the presidential decree and CEC calendar reporting (June 16–17, 2026). Do not infer the schedule from a market's API end time or a social post.
Separate the three questions
Write down which board you are reading — winner, seats gained, or second place — before comparing any two prices. Cross-board comparisons without rule checks produce false edges.
Measure, don't skim
Use the prediction-market odds guide to record spread and depth rather than treating the last trade as an exact probability.
Compare fixed calendars
The U.S. midterm hub (November 3), the Brazil election guide (October 4 first round), and this page cover different electoral systems, dates, and contract families — a price on one never mechanically determines another.
Investigate sharp moves
The biggest-movers watchlist can flag a Duma contract for review. It cannot establish whether a move reflects information, thin liquidity, or a single large order.
Keep claims bounded
The prediction-market accuracy guide explains why a quoted probability is evidence to assess, not certainty. No board is guaranteed to settle as today's price implies.
Frequently asked questions
When was the Russian parliamentary election 2026 held?
Voting ran September 18–20, 2026, closing on the main voting day of September 20 fixed by the presidential decree signed on June 16, 2026. Russia's Central Election Commission published its election-preparation calendar on June 17, 2026.
What was elected in Russia in September 2026?
All 450 seats in the State Duma of the 9th convocation, the lower house of Russia's Federal Assembly; 226 seats were needed for a majority. United Russia entered the election with 310 of the outgoing seats after winning 324 seats and 49.82% of the vote in 2021, and exited with 355.
How did Polymarket's Russian Duma markets settle?
At the September 21, 2026 settlement check, the most-seats-gained board and the winner board were closed and settled with United Russia at Yes = $1.00 — final cumulative volumes of about $52.08 million and $5.07 million respectively. The second-place board remained open with KPRF at 99.95¢ and about $945,000 in cumulative volume — roughly $58.1 million combined.
Who won the 2026 Russian parliamentary election?
Preliminary official results at 96.95% of protocols reported (as of 14:32 Moscow time, September 21) show United Russia winning 355 of 450 seats with 57.83% of the vote, ahead of the Communist Party (40 seats, 13.76%), LDPR (25, 9.01%), New People (20, 7.96%), and A Just Russia (4, 5.00%), on turnout of 59.32%. These are reported totals, not market forecasts.
Why did United Russia's seats-gained contract trade at only 76.5¢ before the vote?
The seats-gained board measures seats added relative to the 310 United Russia already held, so traders weighed whether a smaller party — New People traded at 19.85¢ — would add more seats proportionally. The official results showed United Russia gaining 45 seats (310 to 355), more than any other party, so the contract resolved Yes at $1.00.
Why do United Russia's prices differ between the two Polymarket boards?
The boards ask different questions. The winner board resolves to the party that wins the greatest number of seats. The most-seats-gained board resolves to the party that gains the greatest number of seats compared to before the election, a different measurement when the ruling party already holds 310 seats.
Are the official 2026 Russian election results final?
Not yet at this record: 96.95% of protocols were reported as of 14:32 Moscow time on September 21, 2026, so seat totals remain preliminary. The second-place Polymarket board staying open at 99.95¢ reflects exactly this — its rules wait for a consensus of credible reporting on definitive results.
How do the Russian election markets resolve if results are unknown or disputed?
All three reviewed boards resolve on a consensus of credible reporting, falling back to official Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission if reporting is ambiguous. If results are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, each market resolves to Other. Seat ties break first by valid votes, then by alphabetical party abbreviation.
When will this Russia Duma election 2026 guide be refreshed?
The post-election settlement record shipped September 21, 2026. The next check (about September 28) confirms the second-place board's final resolution once official totals are complete. The page is also updated earlier if a settlement dispute, rule reinterpretation, or official correction emerges.
Related analysis on the blog
- Gain vs Win: A 25-Point Wording Spread in Polymarket's Russian Parliament Books — September 09, 2026
- The Calendar Is the Catalyst: Duma Seats at 69.5%, Iran's Year-End Clock, and a 0.1% French Book — September 01, 2026
📈 Every live Polymarket market on the topic: Russia–Ukraine War odds · World Elections odds
Sources and methodology
- Wikipedia: 2026 Russian legislative election — voting dates September 18–20, 2026; June 16, 2026 presidential decree; June 17, 2026 CEC calendar; 450 seats and 226-majority threshold; 2021 results (United Russia 324 seats, 49.82%); outgoing seat distribution; party leaders; CEC budget per Interfax; political-context background. Checked August 21, September 15, and September 21, 2026 (results check: United Russia 355 seats, 57.83%; KPRF 40, 13.76%; LDPR 25, 9.01%; New People 20, 7.96%; A Just Russia 4, 5.00%; turnout 59.32%; 96.95% of protocols reported as of 14:32 MSK September 21).
- Polymarket Gamma: most-seats-gained event (id 149589) — active/open status, per-contract YES prices and volumes, event totals, and full resolution wording including the September 30, 2027 Other deadline and tie-breaks. Snapshots about 14:00 UTC, August 21, 2026; about 14:05 UTC, September 15, 2026 (final pre-vote refresh); and the September 21, 2026 settlement check (closed, United Russia Yes = $1.00, $52,078,964 final volume).
- Polymarket Gamma: winner event (id 149565) — status, prices, volumes, and resolution wording including the coalition-accounting note. Same snapshot windows; September 21 settlement check: closed, United Russia Yes = $1.00, $5,073,084 final volume.
- Polymarket Gamma: second-place event (id 403883) — status, prices, volumes, and the ranking-based resolution definition. Same snapshot windows; September 21 settlement check: open, KPRF 99.95¢, $945,066 cumulative volume.
- Public Polymarket event pages — live market surfaces for current order books and contract text. Prices reproduced above only as a timestamped snapshot with staleness caveats.
The August 21, 2026 publication review covered the complete blog index, all article HTML files, all existing event hubs, the sitemap, proactive state, current-day publisher output, and the latest local GSC snapshot. No existing page targets Russian-election intent, so a new canonical URL was created for this event; the U.S. midterms, Brazil, and political-markets guide pages link here editorially. The September 15, 2026 final pre-vote refresh re-verified the voting dates, re-snapshotted all three boards, and re-checked the complete 129-entry posts.json archive, all 26 event hubs, and the 163-URL sitemap for overlap: the two September cluster articles (the calendar-catalyst board review and the gain-vs-win wording-spread analysis) complement rather than compete with this hub. The September 21, 2026 settlement record verified the preliminary official results and the final market states, and re-checked the complete 134-entry posts.json archive, all 26 event hubs, and the 168-URL sitemap for overlap: today's reactive daily article covers German state politics and has no Russia-election overlap. The page is educational and does not claim any trading result or return.