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Updated November 7, 2026 · 141 live markets · refreshed twice a day
As of November 7, 2026 at 12:50 UTC, Polymarket lists 141 live Russia–Ukraine War markets with $270.9K traded in the last 24 hours. The most active is Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement? (By December 31, 2027 70.5%), followed by Where will Trump and Putin meet next in 2026? (China 88.5%), Where will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next before 2027? (No meeting before 2027 95.5%).
The Russia–Ukraine war: ceasefire and peace-deal timing, territorial control, Putin and Zelenskyy. Every live market on the topic is below, with the leading outcome's probability, its 24-hour change, trading volume and end date.
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| Market | Leading outcome | 24h change | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement? | By December 31, 2027 70.5% | +1.5 pts | $30.4K | Jul 1, 2027 |
| Where will Trump and Putin meet next in 2026? | China 88.5% | — | $30.2K | Jan 1, 2027 |
| Where will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next before 2027? | No meeting before 2027 95.5% | +0.5 pts | $21.0K | Jan 1, 2027 |
| NATO x Russia military clash? | By December 31 11.5% | — | $20.6K | Jan 3, 2027 |
| Russia x Ukraine Ceasefire? | By December 31, 2027 41.5% | — | $17.4K | Dec 31, 2026 |
| Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory? | By June 30, 2027 7.5% | +0.5 pts | $14.5K | Jul 1, 2027 |
| Putin out as President of Russia? | By June 30, 2027 9.5% | — | $14.1K | Jul 1, 2027 |
| US imports Russian diesel? | By March 31 20% | -2.5 pts | $13.9K | Apr 1, 2027 |
| Russia x Ukraine peace talks? | By December 31 97.4% | +1.2 pts | $11.5K | Jan 1, 2027 |
| Trump, Putin, and Xi seen together before 2027? | Yes 85% | -3.0 pts | $10.3K | Jan 1, 2027 |
| Where will the next Russia x Ukraine peace talks take place? | UAE 96% | +0.8 pts | $9.5K | Jan 1, 2028 |
| Trump meets with Putin? | By December 31 88% | -0.5 pts | $7.7K | Jan 1, 2027 |
| Where will Putin and Zelenskyy meet next? | No meeting by December 31, 2027 76.5% | -5.5 pts | $5.9K | Jan 1, 2028 |
| Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026? | Yes 3.2% | -0.2 pts | $5.8K | Jan 1, 2027 |
| Will Russia invade another country? | By December 31, 2027 18% | -1.0 pts | $5.5K | Jan 1, 2028 |
| Will Russia capture Rai-Oleksandrivka? | By December 31 43% | +36.5 pts | $4.7K | Jan 1, 2027 |
| Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia? | By December 31, 2027 26% | -2.0 pts | $4.3K | Jan 1, 2027 |
| Will Russia capture all of Chasiv Yar? | By December 31 60% | +19.5 pts | $4.1K | Jan 1, 2027 |
| Which cities will Russia enter by December 31? | Druzkhivka 19% | -2.0 pts | $3.3K | Jan 1, 2027 |
| Will Putin meet with Zelenskyy by December 31, 2026? | Yes 2.6% | -2.9 pts | $3.1K | Jan 1, 2027 |
| Will Russia target Kyiv? | November 6 96.8% | +13.8 pts | $3.0K | Dec 1, 2026 |
| Will Russia capture Orikhiv? | By June 30, 2027 33.5% | — | $3.0K | Jan 1, 2027 |
| Russia x Ukraine any diplomatic meeting? | By December 31 97% | — | $2.9K | Jan 1, 2027 |
| Which cities will Russia enter by December 31, 2027? | Druzkhivka 75.5% | +1.0 pts | $1.9K | Jan 1, 2028 |
| Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka? | By June 30, 2027 56% | -0.5 pts | $1.9K | Jan 1, 2027 |
| Will Russia capture Kupiansk-Vuzlovyi? | By December 31 5.5% | -1.0 pts | $1.5K | Jan 1, 2027 |
| Will Russia capture all of Bilytske? | By December 31 71.5% | -1.5 pts | $1.5K | Jan 1, 2027 |
| Which cities will Russia enter by June 30, 2027? | Druzkhivka 68.5% | +0.5 pts | $1.2K | Jul 1, 2027 |
| Will Ukraine re-enter Zakitne? | By December 31 29% | +15.5 pts | $1.0K | Jan 1, 2027 |
| Will Russia announce a new forced mobilization? | By December 31 4.3% | -2.2 pts | $980 | Jan 1, 2027 |
| Another commercial vessel struck in Black Sea by…? | November 15 64.5% | — | $976 | Jan 1, 2027 |
| Will Putin meet with Zelenskyy? | By December 31, 2027 25.5% | +3.0 pts | $939 | Jan 1, 2028 |
| Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia? | By June 30, 2027 25% | -1.5 pts | $939 | Jan 1, 2027 |
| Will Russia capture Lyman? | By December 31 3.7% | -1.3 pts | $923 | Jan 1, 2027 |
| Will Ukraine target Moscow? | November 8 72% | -10.5 pts | $844 | Dec 1, 2026 |
| Will Russia enter Stavky? | By December 31 15.5% | -5.5 pts | $791 | Jan 1, 2027 |
| Will Russia capture Dobropillia? | By March 31, 2027 37% | -0.5 pts | $780 | Jan 1, 2027 |
| Bank of Russia Decision in March? | No Change 44.5% | — | $634 | Mar 19, 2027 |
| Who will visit Ukraine by December 31? | Ursula von der Leyen 36% | — | $599 | Jan 1, 2027 |
| Will Russia capture the Royal Café Alex in Kostyantynivka? | By March 31, 2027 52% | -1.0 pts | $577 | Jan 1, 2027 |
101 smaller markets are not shown; all 141 are in the JSON data.
For multi-outcome markets the leading outcome is the one with the highest price; for yes/no markets it is the YES price. Prices are Polymarket share prices read as probabilities, not executable quotes.
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As of November 7, 2026 at 12:50 UTC, Polymarket lists 141 live Russia–Ukraine War markets with $270.9K traded in the last 24 hours. The most active is Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement? (By December 31, 2027 70.5%), followed by Where will Trump and Putin meet next in 2026? (China 88.5%), Where will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next before 2027? (No meeting before 2027 95.5%).
141 live markets as of November 7, 2026, not counting single games and markets that close within a few hours. The table lists them by 24-hour trading volume and refreshes twice a day.
From Polymarket's public market data. Each probability is the displayed price of an outcome's YES share, so 60¢ reads as roughly a 60% chance. Polymarket View is independent and not affiliated with Polymarket; nothing here is financial advice.
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/api/v1/topics/russia-ukraine.json — every live market on the topic, CC BY 4.0 (credit “PolymarketTrader” with a link). See the developer docs.
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Polymarket View, “Russia–Ukraine War odds on Polymarket”, November 7, 2026, https://polymarkettrader.com/odds/russia-ukraine/ (data: Polymarket, CC BY 4.0).
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