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Updated September 23, 2026 · 129 live markets · refreshed twice a day
As of September 23, 2026 at 15:49 UTC, Polymarket lists 129 live Russia–Ukraine War markets with $850.6K traded in the last 24 hours. The most active is Which cities will Russia enter by December 31? (Druzkhivka 40%), followed by Where will Trump and Putin meet next in 2026? (China 68%), NATO x Russia military clash? (By December 31 31.5%).
The Russia–Ukraine war: ceasefire and peace-deal timing, territorial control, Putin and Zelenskyy. Every live market on the topic is below, with the leading outcome's probability, its 24-hour change, trading volume and end date.
| Market | Leading outcome | 24h change | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Which cities will Russia enter by December 31? | Druzkhivka 40% | -3.5 pts | $186.3K | Jan 1, 2027 |
| Where will Trump and Putin meet next in 2026? | China 68% | -2.5 pts | $126.8K | Jan 1, 2027 |
| NATO x Russia military clash? | By December 31 31.5% | -1.0 pts | $109.1K | Jan 3, 2027 |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement? | By December 31, 2027 72.5% | +1.0 pts | $70.0K | Jul 1, 2027 |
| Putin out as President of Russia? | By June 30, 2027 11.5% | — | $60.9K | Jul 1, 2027 |
| Will Russia announce a new forced mobilization? | By December 31 27.5% | — | $55.5K | Jan 1, 2027 |
| Where will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next before 2027? | No meeting before 2027 93% | -0.5 pts | $26.3K | Jan 1, 2027 |
| Russia x Ukraine peace talks? | By December 31 69% | -0.5 pts | $23.1K | Dec 31, 2026 |
| Will Russia invade a NATO country? | By December 31, 2026 5.5% | — | $21.6K | Jan 1, 2027 |
| Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? | Yes 7.5% | — | $17.7K | Jan 1, 2027 |
| Trump meets with Putin? | By December 31 73.5% | -0.5 pts | $16.0K | Jan 1, 2027 |
| Russia military action against EU country? | By December 31 20% | +1.5 pts | $15.6K | Jan 1, 2027 |
| Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory? | By June 30, 2027 10.5% | -1.0 pts | $12.8K | Jul 1, 2027 |
| Kanye West performs in Russia by October 31? | Yes 11.6% | +2.4 pts | $12.8K | Nov 1, 2026 |
| Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka? | By December 31 29.5% | +1.0 pts | $11.1K | Jan 1, 2027 |
| Will Russia capture Orikhiv? | By December 31 29% | -2.5 pts | $9.7K | Jan 1, 2027 |
| Russia x Ukraine any diplomatic meeting? | By December 31 88% | -1.5 pts | $8.9K | Jan 1, 2027 |
| Will Ukraine target Moscow? | September 30 29% | — | $8.4K | Sep 30, 2026 |
| Will Russia invade another country in 2026? | Yes 6.5% | — | $7.7K | Jan 1, 2027 |
| Will Russia capture Dobropillia? | By December 31 16.5% | -2.0 pts | $7.6K | Jan 1, 2027 |
| Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026? | Yes 5.5% | -1.0 pts | $7.3K | Jan 1, 2027 |
| Will Russia capture Lyman? | By December 31 6.5% | +1.0 pts | $3.8K | Jan 1, 2027 |
| Will Russia enter Mykolaivka? | By December 31 82% | -2.0 pts | $2.5K | Jan 1, 2027 |
| Will Russia enter Havrylivka? | By September 30 0.9% | -2.2 pts | $2.2K | Oct 1, 2026 |
| Russia x Ukraine Peace Combo | Yes 3.8% | +0.1 pts | $2.2K | Jan 1, 2027 |
| Will Russia capture the Royal Café Alex in Kostyantynivka? | By December 31 63.5% | — | $1.9K | Jan 1, 2027 |
| Will Russia target Kyiv? | September 26 93% | +12.0 pts | $1.8K | Sep 30, 2026 |
| Will Ukraine re-enter Kamianske? | By December 31 28.5% | +1.5 pts | $1.8K | Oct 1, 2026 |
| Will Ukraine re-enter Uspenivka? | By December 31 44% | +13.5 pts | $1.7K | Jan 1, 2027 |
| Ukraine strikes another tanker in Caspian Sea? | By September 30 5.6% | +1.3 pts | $1.7K | Sep 30, 2026 |
| Will US withdraw from NATO? | By December 31 2.1% | -0.1 pts | $1.1K | Jan 1, 2027 |
| EU country blames Russia for new sabotage attack? | By December 31 64.5% | -2.0 pts | $1.1K | Jan 1, 2027 |
| Will Russia enter Krasnopillya? | By December 31 20% | -7.0 pts | $1.1K | Oct 1, 2026 |
| Bank of Russia decision in October? | No Change 70% | +4.0 pts | $779 | Oct 24, 2026 |
| Will Zelenskyy talk to Putin? | By December 31 7.5% | +1.0 pts | $714 | Jan 1, 2027 |
| Trump, Putin, and Zelensky meet together before 2027? | Yes 6.5% | +1.5 pts | $700 | Jan 1, 2027 |
| Will Russia enter Oleksiievo-Druzhkivka again? | By December 31 83.5% | +2.5 pts | $674 | Dec 31, 2026 |
| Who will visit Ukraine by December 31? | Friedrich Merz 56.5% | +0.5 pts | $627 | Jan 1, 2027 |
| Will Russia capture Mala Tokmachka? | By December 31 50% | +0.5 pts | $484 | Jan 1, 2027 |
| Will Russia capture Oleksiievo-Druzhkivka? | By December 31 18% | -1.5 pts | $453 | Jan 1, 2027 |
89 smaller markets are not shown; all 129 are in the JSON data.
For multi-outcome markets the leading outcome is the one with the highest price; for yes/no markets it is the YES price. Prices are Polymarket share prices read as probabilities, not executable quotes.
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As of September 23, 2026 at 15:49 UTC, Polymarket lists 129 live Russia–Ukraine War markets with $850.6K traded in the last 24 hours. The most active is Which cities will Russia enter by December 31? (Druzkhivka 40%), followed by Where will Trump and Putin meet next in 2026? (China 68%), NATO x Russia military clash? (By December 31 31.5%).
129 live markets as of September 23, 2026, not counting single games and markets that close within a few hours. The table lists them by 24-hour trading volume and refreshes twice a day.
From Polymarket's public market data. Each probability is the displayed price of an outcome's YES share, so 60¢ reads as roughly a 60% chance. Polymarket View is independent and not affiliated with Polymarket; nothing here is financial advice.
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<iframe src="https://polymarkettrader.com/embed/topic/russia-ukraine/" width="100%" height="280" style="border:0;max-width:560px" loading="lazy" title="Russia–Ukraine War odds on Polymarket"></iframe> <p><a href="https://polymarkettrader.com/odds/russia-ukraine/">Russia–Ukraine War odds</a> via <a href="https://polymarkettrader.com/">PolymarketTrader</a></p>
/api/v1/topics/russia-ukraine.json — every live market on the topic, CC BY 4.0 (credit “PolymarketTrader” with a link). See the developer docs.
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