The Brier score measures forecast accuracy as the average of (forecast minus outcome) squared, where the outcome is 1 or 0. 0 is perfect and always saying 50% scores 0.25.
Use the Brier score calculator to score your own forecasts, and compare with Polymarket's scores in the accuracy study.
Calibration · Favorite-longshot bias · Expected value (EV)
Use the Brier score calculator to score your own forecasts, and compare with Polymarket's scores in the accuracy study.
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