Home › Glossary › Favorite-longshot bias
The favorite-longshot bias is a pattern, long documented in betting markets, in which long shots are priced too high and favourites too low relative to how often they win.
In this site's Polymarket sample the opposite showed up in the lowest band: outcomes priced under 10% a week out happened more often than priced.
Calibration · Brier score · Implied probability
In this site's Polymarket sample the opposite showed up in the lowest band: outcomes priced under 10% a week out happened more often than priced.
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