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Updated September 29, 2026 · Category: Geopolitics & World · Market end date: January 1, 2027
As of September 29, 2026 at 00:50 UTC, the leading outcome is By December 31 at 11.5%, followed by By September 30 at 2.2%. The market has $79.4K in total volume and $546 in the last 24 hours.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| By December 31 | 11.5% | +3.0 pts | $16.9K |
| By September 30 | 2.2% | -0.1 pts | $25.1K |
| By July 31 (settled) | 0.0% | -0.5 pts | $37.4K |
Total volume $79.4K · 24h volume $546 · Liquidity $23.4K. Prices are Polymarket YES-share prices read as probabilities; they are not executable quotes.
■ By December 31 ■ By September 30 · 30-day price history (12-hour points)
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This market will resolve to “Yes” if Abbas Araghchi ceases to be Minister of Foreign Affairs of Iran for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Abbas Araghchi's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
If the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from Abbas Araghchi and the government of Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Summary of the market's published rules. The rules on Polymarket control settlement; check them there before relying on any outcome: open this market on Polymarket.
More odds by topic: Iran odds · Geopolitics odds
As of September 29, 2026 at 00:50 UTC, the leading outcome is By December 31 at 11.5%, followed by By September 30 at 2.2%. The market has $79.4K in total volume and $546 in the last 24 hours.
The event's listed end date is January 1, 2027. Each outcome settles under the market's written rules, summarized on this page, which can differ from the end-date field.
They are the displayed prices of each outcome's YES share on Polymarket. A price of 60¢ implies roughly a 60% chance. This page refreshes the numbers twice a day, so they are not live quotes.
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