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Updated September 23, 2026 · 117 live markets · refreshed twice a day
As of September 23, 2026 at 15:42 UTC, Polymarket lists 117 live Iran markets with $2.19M traded in the last 24 hours. The most active is US announces end of Iranian blockade? (By December 31 61.9%), followed by Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? (Yes 20.5%), US-Iran ceasefire continues? (Through September 25 97.4%).
Iran: talks with the US, strikes, ceasefires, sanctions and the country's leadership. Every live market on the topic is below, with the leading outcome's probability, its 24-hour change, trading volume and end date.
| Market | Leading outcome | 24h change | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| US announces end of Iranian blockade? | By December 31 61.9% | -3.0 pts | $546.1K | Jan 1, 2027 |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? | Yes 20.5% | -2.0 pts | $324.3K | Jan 1, 2027 |
| US-Iran ceasefire continues? | Through September 25 97.4% | +0.4 pts | $265.0K | Oct 31, 2026 |
| Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts? | By October 31 77.2% | -15.4 pts | $170.7K | Oct 1, 2026 |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | Yes 14.5% | -1.0 pts | $108.0K | Jan 1, 2027 |
| Who will attend a round of US-Iran peace talks by December 31? | Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani 80.5% | +69.0 pts | $106.4K | Jun 23, 2027 |
| Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed? | By December 31 17.5% | — | $104.0K | Jan 1, 2027 |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues? | Through September 30 96.3% | -0.2 pts | $72.0K | Dec 31, 2026 |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30? | Yes 0.7% | +0.1 pts | $40.7K | Oct 1, 2026 |
| Iran leadership change? | By June 30, 2027 25.5% | — | $36.9K | Jul 1, 2027 |
| What will be in a US-Iran deal in 2026? | 1+ Year Enrichment Moratorium 17.5% | +2.0 pts | $32.4K | Jan 1, 2027 |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control? | By December 31 5.5% | — | $27.6K | Jan 1, 2027 |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31? | Yes 8.0% | -0.5 pts | $25.5K | Nov 1, 2026 |
| Crude Oil all time high? | By December 31 10.5% | — | $24.2K | Jan 1, 2027 |
| US-Iran Hormuz Agreement? | By September 30 7.2% | +1.6 pts | $23.3K | Oct 1, 2026 |
| Iran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement? | By October 31 34% | +1.0 pts | $23.2K | Nov 1, 2026 |
| Houthi military action against Saudi Arabia? | September 28 55% | +17.5 pts | $22.2K | Sep 30, 2026 |
| Iran charges Hormuz fees? | By December 31 25% | +2.0 pts | $15.8K | Jan 1, 2027 |
| Iran full airspace closure? | By December 31 24% | -0.5 pts | $15.1K | Jan 26, 2027 |
| Where will the next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting take place? | USA 42% | — | $14.0K | Dec 31, 2026 |
| Iran blockade lifted before Xi visits US? | Yes 0.1% | -3.1 pts | $11.6K | Dec 31, 2026 |
| Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting? | By December 31, 2026 87% | — | $11.5K | Dec 31, 2026 |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30? | Yes 12.5% | -2.5 pts | $11.4K | Dec 1, 2026 |
| Houthis enter Aden? | By December 31 22.5% | -10.0 pts | $10.3K | Jan 1, 2027 |
| Which month will Strait of Hormuz traffic return to normal? | No Return to Normal Traffic in 2026 80.5% | +2.5 pts | $9.9K | Feb 1, 2027 |
| Iran leader end of 2026? | Mojtaba Khamenei 84.9% | +0.4 pts | $9.5K | Dec 31, 2026 |
| Israel military action against Lebanon? | September 23 92.9% | +20.4 pts | $9.1K | Oct 1, 2026 |
| Avg. # of ships transiting Strait of Hormuz end of September? | 0-5 84% | +13.5 pts | $7.8K | Oct 1, 2026 |
| Mojtaba Khamenei public appearance? | By December 31 19.5% | -0.5 pts | $7.7K | Jan 1, 2027 |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30? | Yes 0.4% | +0.1 pts | $6.5K | Oct 1, 2026 |
| Trump and Pezeshkian meet by September 30? | Yes 5.1% | -19.9 pts | $6.5K | Oct 1, 2026 |
| Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | Yes 6.5% | — | $6.4K | Jan 1, 2027 |
| UNSC Resolution Endorsing Final U.S.-Iran Deal by December 31? | Yes 21% | +7.5 pts | $6.3K | Jan 1, 2027 |
| USD x Iranian rials End of September? | 2.2M+ 91% | +6.0 pts | $6.3K | Oct 1, 2026 |
| Israel military action against Beirut? | By October 31 15% | — | $5.6K | Oct 31, 2026 |
| Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran? | By December 31 3.4% | -0.1 pts | $5.3K | Jan 1, 2027 |
| How many ships transit Bab el-Mandeb Strait week of September 28? | 190-209 30% | — | $5.0K | Oct 4, 2026 |
| Houthis seize an oil tanker? | By October 31 51% | +24.0 pts | $4.9K | Oct 1, 2026 |
| Israeli airspace closed by...? (Excluding Holiday Closures) | December 31 17.5% | -3.0 pts | $4.8K | Jan 1, 2027 |
| US reissues Iran oil sales sanction relief? | By October 31 28% | -4.0 pts | $4.5K | Oct 1, 2026 |
77 smaller markets are not shown; all 117 are in the JSON data.
For multi-outcome markets the leading outcome is the one with the highest price; for yes/no markets it is the YES price. Prices are Polymarket share prices read as probabilities, not executable quotes.
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Strait of Hormuz (31) · Israel (103) · Middle East (108) · Russia–Ukraine War (129) · China & Taiwan (82) · Venezuela (24)
As of September 23, 2026 at 15:42 UTC, Polymarket lists 117 live Iran markets with $2.19M traded in the last 24 hours. The most active is US announces end of Iranian blockade? (By December 31 61.9%), followed by Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? (Yes 20.5%), US-Iran ceasefire continues? (Through September 25 97.4%).
117 live markets as of September 23, 2026, not counting single games and markets that close within a few hours. The table lists them by 24-hour trading volume and refreshes twice a day.
From Polymarket's public market data. Each probability is the displayed price of an outcome's YES share, so 60¢ reads as roughly a 60% chance. Polymarket View is independent and not affiliated with Polymarket; nothing here is financial advice.
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<iframe src="https://polymarkettrader.com/embed/topic/iran/" width="100%" height="280" style="border:0;max-width:560px" loading="lazy" title="Iran odds on Polymarket"></iframe> <p><a href="https://polymarkettrader.com/odds/iran/">Iran odds</a> via <a href="https://polymarkettrader.com/">PolymarketTrader</a></p>
/api/v1/topics/iran.json — every live market on the topic, CC BY 4.0 (credit “PolymarketTrader” with a link). See the developer docs.
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