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Updated November 7, 2026 · 116 live markets · refreshed twice a day
As of November 7, 2026 at 12:50 UTC, Polymarket lists 116 live Iran markets with $5.96M traded in the last 24 hours. The most active is US-Iran effective ceasefire continues? (Through November 5 99.3%), followed by Israel x Iran ceasefire continues? (Through November 4 99.9%), US announces end of Iranian blockade? (By March 31 69.5%).
Iran: talks with the US, strikes, ceasefires, sanctions and the country's leadership. Every live market on the topic is below, with the leading outcome's probability, its 24-hour change, trading volume and end date.
| Market | Leading outcome | 24h change | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| US-Iran effective ceasefire continues? | Through November 5 99.3% | +0.4 pts | $2.83M | Jan 1, 2027 |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues? | Through November 4 99.9% | +0.1 pts | $1.63M | Dec 31, 2026 |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade? | By March 31 69.5% | -1.5 pts | $308.8K | Jan 1, 2027 |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | Yes 10.5% | -1.0 pts | $250.8K | Jan 1, 2027 |
| Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31? | Yes 32.5% | -9.0 pts | $204.5K | Jan 1, 2027 |
| Iran leadership change? | By June 30, 2027 22% | -2.0 pts | $101.8K | Jul 1, 2027 |
| Houthis enter Saudi Arabia? | By December 31 69.5% | +2.5 pts | $95.7K | Jan 1, 2027 |
| US-Iran Hormuz Agreement? | By December 31 35.5% | — | $92.1K | Jan 1, 2027 |
| Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | Yes 2.6% | -0.1 pts | $59.7K | Jan 1, 2027 |
| Iran full airspace closure? | By December 31 27% | -0.5 pts | $46.8K | Jan 1, 2027 |
| Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting? | By December 31, 2026 44.5% | +0.5 pts | $45.4K | Dec 31, 2026 |
| Israeli airspace closed by...? (Excluding Holiday Closures) | December 31 31.5% | +3.0 pts | $41.9K | Jan 1, 2027 |
| Crude Oil all time high? | By March 31, 2027 20% | -0.5 pts | $21.2K | Jan 1, 2027 |
| Saudi airspace closed? | By December 31 5.5% | -2.0 pts | $20.8K | Jan 1, 2027 |
| US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by…? | December 31 9.5% | — | $19.1K | Jan 1, 2027 |
| What will be in a US-Iran deal in 2026? | Uranium Enrichment % Cap (1+ Year) 11.5% | -1.0 pts | $18.4K | Jan 1, 2027 |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? | Yes 9.5% | -0.5 pts | $17.5K | Jan 1, 2027 |
| Iran Nuke before 2027? | Yes 3.8% | +1.6 pts | $12.0K | Jan 1, 2027 |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30? | Yes 3.2% | -0.4 pts | $11.2K | Dec 1, 2026 |
| Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile? | By December 31 5.0% | -0.5 pts | $10.9K | Jan 1, 2027 |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control? | By December 31 4.5% | — | $10.6K | Jan 1, 2027 |
| Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran? | By December 31 2.2% | +0.1 pts | $10.2K | Jan 1, 2027 |
| Houthis capture Taiz by...? (castle) | December 31 22.5% | -7.5 pts | $8.0K | Jan 1, 2027 |
| US obtains Iranian enriched uranium? | By December 31 2.9% | +0.1 pts | $7.3K | Jan 1, 2027 |
| Iran leader end of 2026? | Mojtaba Khamenei 91.2% | — | $7.2K | Dec 31, 2026 |
| Major airlines suspend Ben Gurion flights? | By January 31, 2027 54.5% | -4.0 pts | $6.9K | Feb 1, 2027 |
| Iran coup attempt? | By December 31, 2027 27.5% | +6.0 pts | $6.9K | Jan 1, 2027 |
| Where will the next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting take place? | No Meeting by December 31 54% | -1.5 pts | $6.3K | Dec 31, 2026 |
| Mojtaba Khamenei public appearance? | By December 31 9.5% | -2.0 pts | $5.2K | Jan 1, 2027 |
| Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed? | By December 31 9.5% | +2.0 pts | $5.0K | Jan 1, 2027 |
| IAEA visits Isfahan, Fordow, or Natanz nuclear site? | By December 31 16.5% | -0.5 pts | $3.9K | Jan 1, 2027 |
| Israel military action against Lebanon? | November 8 87.5% | +2.0 pts | $3.8K | Dec 1, 2026 |
| Will the US officially declare war on Iran? | By December 31 2.2% | +0.1 pts | $3.2K | Jan 1, 2027 |
| Trump renames Strait of Hormuz to "Strait of Trump" by December 31? | Yes 2.4% | +0.1 pts | $2.8K | Jan 1, 2027 |
| USD x Iranian rials End of December? | 2.5 - 3.0M 42.5% | +5.5 pts | $2.7K | Dec 31, 2026 |
| Who will attend a round of US-Iran peace talks by December 31? | Jared Kushner 42% | +4.0 pts | $2.7K | Jan 1, 2027 |
| Will Iran legalize gay marriage? | Yes 1.2% | -0.4 pts | $2.6K | Jan 1, 2027 |
| Will Iran target an Arab country? | By November 30 90% | +8.5 pts | $2.1K | Dec 1, 2026 |
| US imposes new sanctions on China? | By November 30 5.5% | -6.0 pts | $2.0K | Dec 1, 2026 |
| Mohammed bin Salman out as leader of Saudi Arabia? | By December 31 3.8% | +0.1 pts | $1.9K | Jan 1, 2027 |
76 smaller markets are not shown; all 116 are in the JSON data.
For multi-outcome markets the leading outcome is the one with the highest price; for yes/no markets it is the YES price. Prices are Polymarket share prices read as probabilities, not executable quotes.
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How these markets work: “By date” markets.
Pete Hegseth · Reza Pahlavi · Mojtaba Khamenei · Masoud Pezeshkian · Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf · Abbas Araghchi · Ahmad Vahidi · Elon Musk · Donald Trump · JD Vance · Marco Rubio · Mohammed bin Salman · Rafael Grossi
Strait of Hormuz (30) · Israel (97) · Middle East (121) · Russia–Ukraine War (141) · China & Taiwan (80) · Venezuela (28) · Geopolitics (163)
As of November 7, 2026 at 12:50 UTC, Polymarket lists 116 live Iran markets with $5.96M traded in the last 24 hours. The most active is US-Iran effective ceasefire continues? (Through November 5 99.3%), followed by Israel x Iran ceasefire continues? (Through November 4 99.9%), US announces end of Iranian blockade? (By March 31 69.5%).
116 live markets as of November 7, 2026, not counting single games and markets that close within a few hours. The table lists them by 24-hour trading volume and refreshes twice a day.
From Polymarket's public market data. Each probability is the displayed price of an outcome's YES share, so 60¢ reads as roughly a 60% chance. Polymarket View is independent and not affiliated with Polymarket; nothing here is financial advice.
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<iframe src="https://polymarkettrader.com/embed/topic/iran/" width="100%" height="280" style="border:0;max-width:560px" loading="lazy" title="Iran odds on Polymarket"></iframe> <p><a href="https://polymarkettrader.com/odds/iran/">Iran odds</a> via <a href="https://polymarkettrader.com/">PolymarketTrader</a></p>
/api/v1/topics/iran.json — every live market on the topic, CC BY 4.0 (credit “PolymarketTrader” with a link). See the developer docs.
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Polymarket View, “Iran odds on Polymarket”, November 7, 2026, https://polymarkettrader.com/odds/iran/ (data: Polymarket, CC BY 4.0).
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