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Updated October 16, 2026 · Category: Economy & Fed · Market end date: May 1, 2027
As of October 16, 2026 at 00:50 UTC, the leading outcome is $170 billion at 99.2%, followed by $190 billion at 96.7%, $180 billion at 94.7%. The market has $26.1K in total volume and $63 in the last 24 hours.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| $170 billion | 99.2% | — | $1.4K |
| $190 billion | 96.7% | +1.8 pts | $5.9K |
| $180 billion | 94.7% | — | $7.2K |
| $200 billion | 92% | +0.5 pts | $5.6K |
| $210 billion | 80.5% | — | $3.0K |
| $220 billion | 75.5% | +6.0 pts | $2.9K |
Total volume $26.1K · 24h volume $63 · Liquidity $5.4K. Prices are Polymarket YES-share prices read as probabilities; they are not executable quotes.
■ $170 billion ■ $190 billion ■ $180 billion · 30-day price history (12-hour points)
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This market will resolve to "Yes" if Amazon's Purchases of Property and Equipment (capital expenditures) for the full year of 2026, as reported in its official company earnings materials for the fourth fiscal quarter of 2026, is above the listed amount. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The specified metric will be considered as reported in the company's official earnings materials. Subsequent revisions will not be considered.
If the specified company's official earnings materials for the specified period are released, and the specified metric is not included, this market will resolve to "No".
If the specified company does not release earnings materials for the fourth fiscal quarter of 2026 by April 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
If the specified metric is reported as a range rather than a specific number, the midpoint of the range will be used for resolution of this market.
The resolution source for this market is Amazon's official company earnings materials for the fourth fiscal quarter of 2026, including press releases, investor presentations, and regulatory filings (including the Annual Report on Form 10-K). If the specified metric is not reported in these materials, recordings or transcripts of the company's earnings webcast may also be used.
Note: This market will resolve based on the most numerically precise version of the specified metric reported in the company's official earnings materials. Capital expenditures are defined as purchases of property and equipment as reported in Amazon's consolidated statements of cash flows under investing activities, consistent with how Amazon has historically disclosed this figure. Alternate metrics that differ in definition or scope will not be considered.
Summary of the market's published rules. The rules on Polymarket control settlement; check them there before relying on any outcome: open this market on Polymarket.
More odds by topic: Big Tech odds
As of October 16, 2026 at 00:50 UTC, the leading outcome is $170 billion at 99.2%, followed by $190 billion at 96.7%, $180 billion at 94.7%. The market has $26.1K in total volume and $63 in the last 24 hours.
The event's listed end date is May 1, 2027. Each outcome settles under the market's written rules, summarized on this page, which can differ from the end-date field.
They are the displayed prices of each outcome's YES share on Polymarket. A price of 60¢ implies roughly a 60% chance. This page refreshes the numbers twice a day, so they are not live quotes.
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