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Big Tech Odds on Polymarket
Updated September 23, 2026 · 171 live markets · refreshed twice a day
Google, Apple, Nvidia, Meta, Microsoft and Amazon: launches, market caps and company events. Every live market on the topic is below, with the leading outcome's probability, its 24-hour change, trading volume and end date.
Live Big Tech markets
| Market | Leading outcome | 24h change | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|
| Largest Company end of September? | NVIDIA 99.4% | +0.5 pts | $46.6K | Oct 1, 2026 |
| Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31? | ↑$1.5T 89% | +0.5 pts | $39.3K | Jan 5, 2027 |
| Largest Company end of December 2026? | NVIDIA 75.5% | -2.0 pts | $24.0K | Jan 1, 2027 |
| Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap | $2.0–$2.25T 23.6% | — | $19.6K | Jan 1, 2028 |
| OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap | 1.5T+ 61.3% | -7.0 pts | $18.4K | Jan 1, 2028 |
| What will Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) hit in September 2026? | ↓ $720 68.5% | +15.0 pts | $13.2K | Oct 1, 2026 |
| Next Google Gemini Pro Model released? | By October 23 85.5% | +20.5 pts | $12.4K | Nov 1, 2026 |
| Who will close Warner Bros. acquisition? | Paramount 98.9% | +2.1 pts | $12.0K | Jul 1, 2027 |
| Next Muse Spark (1.4+): Text Arena Debut? | 1480+ 78.5% | — | $11.7K | Jun 30, 2027 |
| Which companies will be acquired before 2027? | MGM Resorts 28.5% | — | $10.4K | Jan 1, 2027 |
| Next Google Gemini Pro Model: Arena Debut? | 1480+ 93% | +1.9 pts | $10.1K | Jan 1, 2027 |
| What will Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) hit Week of September 21 2026? | ↑ $770 76.5% | — | $10.0K | Sep 25, 2026 |
| Will Paramount close Warner Bros. acquisition by end of 2026? | Yes 96.1% | +1.9 pts | $9.8K | Jan 1, 2027 |
| What will Anthropic's IPO valuation be? | $2.00–$2.25T 23.5% | +4.5 pts | $8.4K | Jan 1, 2028 |
| What will OpenAI's IPO valuation be? | <$1T 17.6% | +4.0 pts | $7.7K | Jan 1, 2028 |
| Will OpenAI launch a consumer hardware product? | By December 31, 2026 25.5% | -1.5 pts | $7.3K | Jan 1, 2027 |
| Which AI labs commit to third party vetting by October 31? | Google 27% | -2.0 pts | $7.3K | Nov 1, 2026 |
| IPOs before 2027? | Anthropic 76.5% | -6.0 pts | $6.9K | Jan 1, 2027 |
| OpenAI IPO? | By June 30, 2027 57% | +1.5 pts | $6.9K | Jul 1, 2027 |
| GPU rental prices (A100) end of September? | $1.00-$1.25 56.5% | +5.0 pts | $6.7K | Oct 1, 2026 |
| AI bubble burst? | By June 30, 2027 20.5% | -13.5 pts | $6.7K | Jan 1, 2027 |
| In which month will Anthropic IPO? | November 2026 51.5% | -4.4 pts | $6.3K | Jan 1, 2028 |
| OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027? | Yes 18.5% | +4.0 pts | $6.3K | Jan 1, 2027 |
| Elon Musk Net Worth on September 30? | $900B-$1.00T 62% | -9.5 pts | $6.1K | Oct 1, 2026 |
| Next Google Gemini Pro Model released? | No release by September 30 91.5% | -1.0 pts | $5.4K | Oct 1, 2026 |
| Who will attend the White House state dinner for Xi Jinping? | Tim Cook 98.2% | +1.9 pts | $5.2K | Oct 8, 2026 |
| Next Google Gemini Pro Model: Humanity’s Last Exam Debut? | 40%+ 95% | +2.5 pts | $5.0K | Jan 1, 2027 |
| Will Apple release a foldable iPhone? | By December 31 99.1% | +0.1 pts | $4.9K | Dec 31, 2026 |
| Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced? | By December 31, 2027 65.5% | — | $4.8K | Jan 1, 2028 |
| What will General Mills say during their next earnings call? | Brazil 47% | -25.0 pts | $4.2K | Sep 23, 2026 |
| OpenAI IPO closing market cap above ___ ? | $800B 79.6% | -2.1 pts | $4.0K | Jan 1, 2028 |
| Next Muse Spark (1.4+) released? | By October 31 82.5% | +10.0 pts | $3.7K | Oct 31, 2026 |
| 3rd Largest Company end of September? | Alphabet 97.2% | -0.9 pts | $3.6K | Oct 1, 2026 |
| SpaceX Starship Flight Test 14 | October 31 97.5% | -0.1 pts | $3.5K | Jul 1, 2027 |
| Will any AI model reach ___ Coding Arena Score by December 31? | 1560 31.5% | -6.0 pts | $3.1K | Jan 1, 2027 |
| When will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released? | October 12–October 18 36.5% | -2.0 pts | $3.1K | Nov 1, 2026 |
| Will a Chinese company have a top ___ AI model by December 31? | #3 12.5% | — | $2.7K | Jan 1, 2027 |
| Meta's "Watermelon" model released? | By November 30 88.5% | — | $2.6K | Nov 30, 2026 |
| 2nd Largest Company end of September? | Apple 98% | +0.4 pts | $2.5K | Oct 1, 2026 |
| GPU rental prices (H100) end of 2026? | $2.50-$3.00 31.4% | -4.0 pts | $2.4K | Jan 1, 2027 |
131 smaller markets are not shown; all 171 are in the JSON data.
For multi-outcome markets the leading outcome is the one with the highest price; for yes/no markets it is the YES price. Prices are Polymarket share prices read as probabilities, not executable quotes.
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Frequently asked questions
What are the Big Tech odds on Polymarket today?
As of September 23, 2026 at 15:42 UTC, Polymarket lists 171 live Big Tech markets with $445.9K traded in the last 24 hours. The most active is Largest Company end of September? (NVIDIA 99.4%), followed by Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31? (↑$1.5T 89%), Largest Company end of December 2026? (NVIDIA 75.5%).
How many Big Tech markets are open on Polymarket?
171 live markets as of September 23, 2026, not counting single games and markets that close within a few hours. The table lists them by 24-hour trading volume and refreshes twice a day.
Where do these odds come from?
From Polymarket's public market data. Each probability is the displayed price of an outcome's YES share, so 60¢ reads as roughly a 60% chance. Polymarket View is independent and not affiliated with Polymarket; nothing here is financial advice.
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