Home › Polymarket odds › Tech & AI
Updated October 10, 2026 · 173 live markets · refreshed twice a day
As of October 10, 2026 at 16:47 UTC, Polymarket lists 173 live Big Tech markets with $276.9K traded in the last 24 hours. The most active is Largest Company end of December 2026? (NVIDIA 83.5%), followed by Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31? (↑$1.5T 92.5%), Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap ($2.0–$2.25T 26.7%).
Google, Apple, Nvidia, Meta, Microsoft and Amazon: launches, market caps and company events. Every live market on the topic is below, with the leading outcome's probability, its 24-hour change, trading volume and end date.
| Market | Leading outcome | 24h change | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Largest Company end of December 2026? | NVIDIA 83.5% | -2.0 pts | $53.8K | Jan 1, 2027 |
| Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31? | ↑$1.5T 92.5% | -1.0 pts | $34.1K | Jan 5, 2027 |
| Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap | $2.0–$2.25T 26.7% | -3.4 pts | $24.1K | Jan 1, 2028 |
| #1 Searched Person on Google 2026? | Lindsay Clancy 20.5% | +0.5 pts | $15.9K | Apr 1, 2027 |
| What will OpenAI's IPO valuation be? | $1.75T–$2.0T 24% | +0.5 pts | $10.9K | Jan 1, 2028 |
| Will Apple release a touchscreen MacBook in 2026? | Yes 92.5% | +12.0 pts | $10.1K | Jan 1, 2027 |
| OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap | 1.5T+ 55.8% | -2.0 pts | $8.6K | Jan 1, 2028 |
| When will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released? | No release by November 1 91.4% | -0.1 pts | $6.8K | Nov 1, 2026 |
| Next Gemini Pro Model released? | No release by October 31 90% | -0.5 pts | $6.3K | Oct 31, 2026 |
| Next Google Gemini Pro Model released? | By December 31 38% | +2.5 pts | $5.4K | Nov 1, 2026 |
| Largest Company end of October 2026? | NVIDIA 95.9% | +0.2 pts | $5.2K | Nov 1, 2026 |
| #1 Searched Movie on Google 2026? | The Odyssey 39.5% | — | $4.5K | Apr 1, 2027 |
| #2 AI lab by OpenRouter market share week of October 5? | OpenAI 58.5% | -2.0 pts | $3.8K | Oct 13, 2026 |
| Gemini Argon released? | October 13 32.1% | +2.8 pts | $3.3K | Nov 1, 2026 |
| In which month will Anthropic IPO? | November 2026 60.7% | -8.2 pts | $3.3K | Jan 1, 2028 |
| IPOs before 2027? | Anthropic 77.5% | — | $3.2K | Jan 1, 2027 |
| Gemini Argon: Humanity's Last Exam Debut? | 45%+ 87.5% | -0.5 pts | $3.1K | Jul 1, 2027 |
| Gemini Argon released? | By November 30 91.5% | +10.2 pts | $3.1K | Dec 1, 2026 |
| Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) Q3 gross profit margin? | 67% to 68% 41.5% | +10.5 pts | $3.0K | Oct 15, 2026 |
| Next Google Gemini Pro Model: Arena Debut? | 1490+ 29.9% | — | $3.0K | Jan 1, 2027 |
| What will the next Muse model family be named? | Muse Fire 8.5% | — | $2.9K | Dec 31, 2026 |
| Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap (Middle Brackets) | 1.8T+ 82% | +0.5 pts | $2.7K | Jan 1, 2028 |
| Who will launch a Muse-like personal agent before 2027? | Microsoft 32.5% | +6.0 pts | $2.2K | Jan 1, 2027 |
| Meta's "Watermelon" model released? | By November 30 94.5% | — | $2.1K | Nov 30, 2026 |
| Which companies will be acquired before 2027? | Viking Therapeutics 12.5% | — | $1.9K | Jan 1, 2027 |
| Longest GitHub critical incident in October? | 6-12 hours 44% | +13.0 pts | $1.8K | Nov 1, 2026 |
| OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap | No IPO by December 31, 2026 95.2% | -0.1 pts | $1.7K | Jan 1, 2027 |
| 2nd Largest Company end of December 2026? | Apple 66.5% | -6.5 pts | $1.7K | Jan 1, 2027 |
| Another critical Cloudflare incident? | By December 31 62.5% | -12.5 pts | $1.5K | Jan 1, 2027 |
| Largest IPO by market cap in 2026? | Anthropic 55.3% | -1.6 pts | $1.4K | Jan 2, 2027 |
| OpenAI’s valuation end of November 2026? | $1.30T+ 46.5% | +4.0 pts | $1.4K | Nov 30, 2026 |
| Will Apple release a foldable iPhone? | By October 31 99.6% | +0.1 pts | $1.4K | Jan 1, 2027 |
| Will a Chinese company have a top ___ AI model by December 31? | #3 24.5% | +2.0 pts | $1.4K | Jan 1, 2027 |
| Which AI labs announce a training pause by October 31? | Anthropic 36.5% | +8.0 pts | $1.3K | Nov 1, 2026 |
| Elon Musk Net Worth on October 31? | $1.00-$1.10T 46.5% | +9.5 pts | $1.2K | Nov 1, 2026 |
| Meta's Watermelon Model: Humanity's Last Exam Debut? | 40%+ 90% | -0.5 pts | $1.1K | Jun 30, 2027 |
| Which companies will the US take a stake in? | Unusual Machines 40.5% | +0.5 pts | $1.1K | Jan 1, 2027 |
| Lead Bank in Anthropic's IPO? | Morgan Stanley 82.5% | -2.5 pts | $1.1K | Jan 1, 2028 |
| Apple’s Market Cap end of 2026? | $5.00-$5.50T 31.5% | +4.0 pts | $954 | Dec 31, 2026 |
| SpaceX IPO: Officially added to S&P 500 in 2026? | Yes 4.6% | +3.2 pts | $934 | Jan 1, 2027 |
133 smaller markets are not shown; all 173 are in the JSON data.
For multi-outcome markets the leading outcome is the one with the highest price; for yes/no markets it is the YES price. Prices are Polymarket share prices read as probabilities, not executable quotes.
🔔 Get alerts when big Big Tech markets move — free Telegram watchlist
How these markets work: Earnings markets · Stock price markets.
LeBron James · Elon Musk · Donald Trump · JD Vance · Benjamin Netanyahu · Nicolás Maduro · Kanye West · Bad Bunny · Vladimir Putin · Taylor Swift · Sabrina Carpenter · Erling Haaland · Chappell Roan · Matt Damon · Volodymyr Zelenskyy
AI (184) · OpenAI (74) · Anthropic (66) · Elon Musk (67) · Science & Space (101)
As of October 10, 2026 at 16:47 UTC, Polymarket lists 173 live Big Tech markets with $276.9K traded in the last 24 hours. The most active is Largest Company end of December 2026? (NVIDIA 83.5%), followed by Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31? (↑$1.5T 92.5%), Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap ($2.0–$2.25T 26.7%).
173 live markets as of October 10, 2026, not counting single games and markets that close within a few hours. The table lists them by 24-hour trading volume and refreshes twice a day.
From Polymarket's public market data. Each probability is the displayed price of an outcome's YES share, so 60¢ reads as roughly a 60% chance. Polymarket View is independent and not affiliated with Polymarket; nothing here is financial advice.
Paste this on your site or newsletter — it shows the five most-traded Big Tech markets and updates twice a day.
<iframe src="https://polymarkettrader.com/embed/topic/big-tech/" width="100%" height="280" style="border:0;max-width:560px" loading="lazy" title="Big Tech odds on Polymarket"></iframe> <p><a href="https://polymarkettrader.com/odds/big-tech/">Big Tech odds</a> via <a href="https://polymarkettrader.com/">PolymarketTrader</a></p>
/api/v1/topics/big-tech.json — every live market on the topic, CC BY 4.0 (credit “PolymarketTrader” with a link). See the developer docs.
Markdown for READMEs and newsletters:
[](https://polymarkettrader.com/odds/big-tech/)
Polymarket View, “Big Tech odds on Polymarket”, October 10, 2026, https://polymarkettrader.com/odds/big-tech/ (data: Polymarket, CC BY 4.0).
Polymarket View is an independent research site, not affiliated with Polymarket. Educational information, not financial advice. All Polymarket odds · Event hubs · Blog