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Updated September 26, 2026 · Category: Geopolitics & World · Market end date: January 1, 2027
As of September 26, 2026 at 02:04 UTC, the leading outcome is By December 31 at 56%, followed by By October 31 at 24%. The market has $171.1K in total volume and $470 in the last 24 hours.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| By December 31 | 56% | -5.0 pts | $7.9K |
| By October 31 | 24% | -1.5 pts | $17.5K |
| By August 31 (settled) | 0.0% | -0.1 pts | $145.7K |
Total volume $171.1K · 24h volume $470 · Liquidity $2.0K. Prices are Polymarket YES-share prices read as probabilities; they are not executable quotes.
■ By December 31 ■ By October 31 · 30-day price history (12-hour points)
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NATO's Article 4 allows any member to call for consultations with allies if it believes its territorial integrity, political independence, or security to be threatened.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any NATO member invokes Article 4 of the North Atlantic Treaty between market creation and the specified date 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No".
Article 4 is considered invoked as soon as a member formally requests consultations with NATO allies under Article 4, regardless of whether the request is later revoked.
For example, Poland's request for consultations on September 10, 2025, or Estonia's request on September 24, 2025 would each qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
If a member state only expresses intent to or is considering invoking Article 4, that alone does not suffice for a "Yes" resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from NATO; authoritative statements from the requesting member government may also be used.
Summary of the market's published rules. The rules on Polymarket control settlement; check them there before relying on any outcome: open this market on Polymarket.
More odds by topic: Russia–Ukraine War odds · Geopolitics odds
As of September 26, 2026 at 02:04 UTC, the leading outcome is By December 31 at 56%, followed by By October 31 at 24%. The market has $171.1K in total volume and $470 in the last 24 hours.
The event's listed end date is January 1, 2027. Each outcome settles under the market's written rules, summarized on this page, which can differ from the end-date field.
They are the displayed prices of each outcome's YES share on Polymarket. A price of 60¢ implies roughly a 60% chance. This page refreshes the numbers twice a day, so they are not live quotes.
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