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Updated September 27, 2026 · Category: Crypto · Market end date: November 4, 2026
As of September 27, 2026 at 00:50 UTC, the leading outcome is December 31, 2026 at 22.8%. The market has $151.3K in total volume and $1.6K in the last 24 hours.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| December 31, 2026 | 22.8% | -2.8 pts | $138.0K |
| November 30, 2025 (settled) | 0.0% | -0.4 pts | $10.4K |
| December 31, 2025 (settled) | 0.0% | — | $2.9K |
Total volume $151.3K · 24h volume $1.6K · Liquidity $361. Prices are Polymarket YES-share prices read as probabilities; they are not executable quotes.
■ December 31, 2026 · 30-day price history (12-hour points)
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This market will resolve to "Yes" if any S&P 500 company announces between November 4, 12:00 PM ET, and November 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET that they bought Bitcoin for the first time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This announcement can pertain to a first purchase of Bitcoin outside of the timeframe of this market (e.g. if a qualifying company announces it made its first purchase of Bitcoin prior to this market's timeframe, but the announcement is made within the timeframe, this market will resolve to "Yes").
The primary resolution source will be official announcements from qualifying companies; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Summary of the market's published rules. The rules on Polymarket control settlement; check them there before relying on any outcome: open this market on Polymarket.
More odds by topic: Bitcoin odds
As of September 27, 2026 at 00:50 UTC, the leading outcome is December 31, 2026 at 22.8%. The market has $151.3K in total volume and $1.6K in the last 24 hours.
The event's listed end date is November 4, 2026. Each outcome settles under the market's written rules, summarized on this page, which can differ from the end-date field.
They are the displayed prices of each outcome's YES share on Polymarket. A price of 60¢ implies roughly a 60% chance. This page refreshes the numbers twice a day, so they are not live quotes.
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