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Updated October 4, 2026 · Category: Politics & Elections · Market end date: January 1, 2027
As of October 4, 2026 at 00:50 UTC, Polymarket traders price Yes at 3.2% (No 96.8%), with $168.6K traded in total and $979 in the last 24 hours.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 3.2% | +0.5 pts | $168.6K |
| No | 96.8% | -0.5 pts | — |
Total volume $168.6K · 24h volume $979 · Liquidity $22.3K. Prices are Polymarket YES-share prices read as probabilities; they are not executable quotes.
■ Yes ■ No · 30-day price history (12-hour points)
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This market will resolve to “Yes” if any European Union (EU) member state withdraws from the EU by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An EU member state will be considered to have withdrawn once they officially initiate their withdrawal and/or formally notify the European Council of their intention to withdraw, regardless of whether the withdrawal is finalized after this market’s timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the European Union and EU member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Summary of the market's published rules. The rules on Polymarket control settlement; check them there before relying on any outcome: open this market on Polymarket.
More odds by topic: Politics odds · Geopolitics odds
As of October 4, 2026 at 00:50 UTC, Polymarket traders price Yes at 3.2% (No 96.8%), with $168.6K traded in total and $979 in the last 24 hours.
The event's listed end date is January 1, 2027. Each outcome settles under the market's written rules, summarized on this page, which can differ from the end-date field.
They are the displayed prices of each outcome's YES share on Polymarket. A price of 60¢ implies roughly a 60% chance. This page refreshes the numbers twice a day, so they are not live quotes.
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