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Updated November 7, 2026 · Category: Politics & Elections · Market end date: October 25, 2027
As of November 7, 2026 at 12:50 UTC, the leading outcome is Javier Milei at 60%, followed by Axel Kicillof at 19%, Guillermo Moreno at 8.2%. The market has $22.4K in total volume and $2.6K in the last 24 hours.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| Javier Milei | 60% | -2.5 pts | $7.0K |
| Axel Kicillof | 19% | +8.0 pts | $5.8K |
| Guillermo Moreno | 8.2% | +3.3 pts | $449 |
| Daniel Hadad | 5.5% | — | $446 |
| Karina Milei | 5.0% | -0.1 pts | $342 |
| Sergio Massa | 4.5% | -0.1 pts | $3.9K |
| Cristina Fernández de Kirchner | 4.3% | +0.8 pts | $329 |
| Myriam Bregman | 4.1% | -0.1 pts | $437 |
| Eduardo Enrique "Wado" de Pedro | 3.5% | — | $334 |
| Facundo Manes | 2.4% | — | $286 |
| Juan Grabois | 2.2% | -0.1 pts | $596 |
| Patricia Bullrich | 2.1% | -0.1 pts | $631 |
| Mauricio Macri | 1.8% | — | $469 |
| Juan Schiaretti | 1.5% | — | $258 |
| Dante Gebel | 0.1% | — | $413 |
3 lower-priced outcomes are not shown; the full list is in the JSON data.
Total volume $22.4K · 24h volume $2.6K · Liquidity $106.6K. Prices are Polymarket YES-share prices read as probabilities; they are not executable quotes.
■ Javier Milei ■ Axel Kicillof ■ Guillermo Moreno · 30-day price history (12-hour points)
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A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Argentina on October 24, 2027.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Argentine government, specifically the Cámara Nacional Electoral (https://www.electoral.gob.ar/nuevo/index.php) and the Dirección Nacional Electoral (https://www.argentina.gob.ar/dine).
Summary of the market's published rules. The rules on Polymarket control settlement; check them there before relying on any outcome: open this market on Polymarket.
More odds by topic: World Elections odds · Politics odds
As of November 7, 2026 at 12:50 UTC, the leading outcome is Javier Milei at 60%, followed by Axel Kicillof at 19%, Guillermo Moreno at 8.2%. The market has $22.4K in total volume and $2.6K in the last 24 hours.
The event's listed end date is October 25, 2027. Each outcome settles under the market's written rules, summarized on this page, which can differ from the end-date field.
They are the displayed prices of each outcome's YES share on Polymarket. A price of 60¢ implies roughly a 60% chance. This page refreshes the numbers twice a day, so they are not live quotes.
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