Home › Polymarket odds › Politics & Elections
Updated September 30, 2026 · Category: Politics & Elections · Market end date: November 4, 2026
As of September 30, 2026 at 00:50 UTC, Polymarket traders price Yes at 29.5% (No 70.5%), with $3.82M traded in total and $1.1K in the last 24 hours.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 29.5% | +1.0 pts | $3.82M |
| No | 70.5% | -1.0 pts | — |
Total volume $3.82M · 24h volume $1.1K · Liquidity $73.8K. Prices are Polymarket YES-share prices read as probabilities; they are not executable quotes.
■ Yes ■ No · 30-day price history (12-hour points)
🔔 Get alerts when big markets move — free Telegram watchlist
A one-time wealth tax on billionaires has been proposed to potentially appear on California's ballot for the November 3, 2026 general election. You can read more about that here: https://6abc.com/post/california-union-proposes-taxing-billionaires-offset-medicaid-cuts-low-income-people/18066430/
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any proposition containing a one-time tax targeting individuals, households, or family units with wealth, assets, or net worth of at least $1 billion (USD or equivalent) passes in the named election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If no qualifying ballot initiative is certified to appear on the official statewide California ballot as a proposition to be voted on in the stated election by June 25, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (the official cutoff date for new initiatives to be approved), or if all qualifying propositions/initiatives are removed from the ballot or amended before the election such that the main threshold drops below $1 billion, this market will resolve "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of the State of California, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Summary of the market's published rules. The rules on Polymarket control settlement; check them there before relying on any outcome: open this market on Polymarket.
More odds by topic: Politics odds
As of September 30, 2026 at 00:50 UTC, Polymarket traders price Yes at 29.5% (No 70.5%), with $3.82M traded in total and $1.1K in the last 24 hours.
The event's listed end date is November 4, 2026. Each outcome settles under the market's written rules, summarized on this page, which can differ from the end-date field.
They are the displayed prices of each outcome's YES share on Polymarket. A price of 60¢ implies roughly a 60% chance. This page refreshes the numbers twice a day, so they are not live quotes.
Paste this on your site, blog or newsletter. It updates with our page. How to embed
<iframe src="https://polymarkettrader.com/embed/odds/billionaire-one-time-wealth-tax-passes-in-california-election-2026/" width="100%" height="300" style="border:0;max-width:560px" loading="lazy" title="Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026? odds"></iframe> <p><a href="https://polymarkettrader.com/odds/billionaire-one-time-wealth-tax-passes-in-california-election-2026/">Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026? odds</a> via <a href="https://polymarkettrader.com/">PolymarketTrader</a></p>
/api/v1/odds/billionaire-one-time-wealth-tax-passes-in-california-election-2026.json — CC BY 4.0, credit “PolymarketTrader” with a link. See the developer docs.
Polymarket View, “Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026? — Polymarket odds”, September 30, 2026, https://polymarkettrader.com/odds/billionaire-one-time-wealth-tax-passes-in-california-election-2026/ (data: Polymarket, CC BY 4.0).
For READMEs, newsletters and forums. Markdown:
[](https://polymarkettrader.com/odds/billionaire-one-time-wealth-tax-passes-in-california-election-2026/)
HTML:
<a href="https://polymarkettrader.com/odds/billionaire-one-time-wealth-tax-passes-in-california-election-2026/"><img src="https://polymarkettrader.com/badge/odds/billionaire-one-time-wealth-tax-passes-in-california-election-2026.svg" alt="Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026? odds on Polymarket" width="400" height="64"></a>
Polymarket View is an independent research site, not affiliated with Polymarket. Educational information, not financial advice. All Polymarket odds · Event hubs · Blog