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Updated October 9, 2026 · Category: Politics & Elections · Market end date: January 1, 2027
As of October 9, 2026 at 12:50 UTC, the leading outcome is By December 31 at 85%, followed by By October 31 at 18.1%, By October 15 at 1.7%. The market has $20.7K in total volume and $2.2K in the last 24 hours.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| By December 31 | 85% | -3.5 pts | $13.9K |
| By October 31 | 18.1% | +0.7 pts | $2.2K |
| By October 15 | 1.7% | — | $4.6K |
Total volume $20.7K · 24h volume $2.2K · Liquidity $5.6K. Prices are Polymarket YES-share prices read as probabilities; they are not executable quotes.
■ By December 31 ■ By October 31 ■ By October 15 · 30-day price history (12-hour points)
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This market will resolve to “Yes” if Carles Puigdemont physically enters the terrestrial territory of Spain at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Territory will be considered Spanish if it is administered by Spain at the time of Carles Puigdemont's presence, regardless of whether the territory is disputed. Unless Spain begins to administer the territory, Gibraltar will not count. Whether or not Puigdemont enters Spanish airspace or maritime territory during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting, including photographs or video from reputable media outlets.
Summary of the market's published rules. The rules on Polymarket control settlement; check them there before relying on any outcome: open this market on Polymarket.
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As of October 9, 2026 at 12:50 UTC, the leading outcome is By December 31 at 85%, followed by By October 31 at 18.1%, By October 15 at 1.7%. The market has $20.7K in total volume and $2.2K in the last 24 hours.
The event's listed end date is January 1, 2027. Each outcome settles under the market's written rules, summarized on this page, which can differ from the end-date field.
They are the displayed prices of each outcome's YES share on Polymarket. A price of 60¢ implies roughly a 60% chance. This page refreshes the numbers twice a day, so they are not live quotes.
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