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Updated October 7, 2026 · Category: Politics & Elections · Market end date: January 1, 2027
As of October 7, 2026 at 00:50 UTC, the leading outcome is By December 31, 2026 at 3.2%. The market has $287.7K in total volume and $0 in the last 24 hours.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| By December 31, 2026 | 3.2% | -0.1 pts | $35.4K |
| By June 30, 2026 (settled) | 0.0% | — | $205.1K |
| By January 31, 2026 (settled) | 0.0% | -0.1 pts | $43.6K |
| By July 31, 2026 (settled) | 0.0% | -0.4 pts | $3.6K |
Total volume $287.7K · 24h volume $0 · Liquidity $13.9K. Prices are Polymarket YES-share prices read as probabilities; they are not executable quotes.
■ By December 31, 2026 · 30-day price history (12-hour points)
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This market will resolve to "Yes" if Claudia Sheinbaum Pardo announces she is resigning as President of Mexico or otherwise ceases to be President of Mexico for any length of time by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An announcement of Claudia Sheinbaum’s resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from Claudia Sheinbaum or the Government of Mexico, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Summary of the market's published rules. The rules on Polymarket control settlement; check them there before relying on any outcome: open this market on Polymarket.
More odds by topic: Mexico odds · Politics odds
As of October 7, 2026 at 00:50 UTC, the leading outcome is By December 31, 2026 at 3.2%. The market has $287.7K in total volume and $0 in the last 24 hours.
The event's listed end date is January 1, 2027. Each outcome settles under the market's written rules, summarized on this page, which can differ from the end-date field.
They are the displayed prices of each outcome's YES share on Polymarket. A price of 60¢ implies roughly a 60% chance. This page refreshes the numbers twice a day, so they are not live quotes.
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