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Updated September 25, 2026 · 32 live markets · refreshed twice a day
As of September 25, 2026 at 12:50 UTC, Polymarket lists 32 live Mexico markets with $20.4K traded in the last 24 hours. The most active is Bank of Mexico Decision in November? (No change 70.5%), followed by Polo makes landfall in Mexico as a hurricane? (Yes 83%), Highest temperature in Mexico City on September 26? (26°C 46.5%).
Mexico: President Sheinbaum, the legislative elections and relations with the US. Every live market on the topic is below, with the leading outcome's probability, its 24-hour change, trading volume and end date.
| Market | Leading outcome | 24h change | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bank of Mexico Decision in November? | No change 70.5% | -21.5 pts | $6.3K | Nov 5, 2026 |
| Polo makes landfall in Mexico as a hurricane? | Yes 83% | — | $5.8K | Oct 7, 2026 |
| Highest temperature in Mexico City on September 26? | 26°C 46.5% | +22.5 pts | $4.7K | Sep 26, 2026 |
| Mexico GDP growth in Q3 2026? | 2.5-3.0% 39.5% | +28.5 pts | $2.1K | Oct 30, 2026 |
| Zacatecas Governor Election Winner | Verónica Díaz Robles 48.5% | -32.0 pts | $666 | Jun 7, 2027 |
| Tlaxcala Governor Election Winner | Ana Lilia Rivera Rivera 36.6% | -5.2 pts | $160 | Jun 7, 2027 |
| Baja California Sur Governor Election Winner | Milena Quiroga Romero 42.5% | -4.5 pts | $146 | Jun 7, 2027 |
| Baja California Governor Election Winner | Julieta Ramírez Padilla 75.5% | -2.8 pts | $96 | Jun 7, 2027 |
| Guerrero Governor Election Winner | Beatriz Mojica Morga 69% | -0.4 pts | $92 | Jun 7, 2027 |
| Nayarit Governor Election Winner | Jasmine Bugarín Rodríguez 42% | +14.8 pts | $52 | Jun 7, 2027 |
| Mexico Legislative Election Winner | Morena 91.1% | — | $50 | Jun 7, 2027 |
| Lowest temperature in Mexico City on September 27? | 6°C or below 49% | — | $40 | Sep 27, 2026 |
| Where will a 6.0+ magnitude earthquake occur by end of September? | Peru 26% | -0.5 pts | $32 | Oct 4, 2026 |
| Colima Governor Election Winner | Rosa María Bayardo Cabrera 81.5% | — | $30 | Jun 7, 2027 |
| Mexico Annual Inflation 2026 | 4.00% to 4.49% 33.5% | — | $25 | Jan 9, 2027 |
| Sinaloa Governor Election Winner | Imelda Castro Castro 84.5% | -1.0 pts | $20 | Jun 7, 2027 |
| Sinaloa Gov. Ruben Rocha arrested? | By December 31 33.8% | -0.2 pts | $14 | Jan 1, 2027 |
| Nuevo León Governor Election Winner | Luis Donaldo Colosio Riojas 30.8% | +3.8 pts | $8 | Jun 7, 2027 |
| Lowest temperature in Mexico City on September 26? | 6°C or below 42.5% | -6.0 pts | $3 | Sep 26, 2026 |
| Sinaloa Gov. Ruben Rocha extradited to US? | By December 31 32.5% | — | $0 | Jan 1, 2027 |
| Which cartel leaders will be arrested in 2026? | Juan Reyes Mejía González 67% | +1.0 pts | $0 | Jan 1, 2027 |
| Mexico Legislative Election: 2nd Place? | PAN 77% | +0.5 pts | $0 | Jun 7, 2027 |
| Michoacán Governor Election Winner | Carlos Torres Piña 62.7% | -0.4 pts | $0 | Jun 7, 2027 |
| Aguascalientes Governor Election Winner | Leonardo Montañez Castro 40.5% | -3.0 pts | $0 | Jun 7, 2027 |
| Quintana Roo Governor Election Winner | Eugenio Segura Vázquez 79.5% | +2.0 pts | $0 | Jun 7, 2027 |
| Sonora Governor Election Winner | Lorenia Valles Sampedro 52.5% | +1.0 pts | $0 | Jun 7, 2027 |
| San Luis Potosí Governor Election Winner | Ruth González Silva 57.5% | -2.0 pts | $0 | Jun 7, 2027 |
| Campeche Governor Election Winner | Pablo Gutiérrez Lazarus 89% | — | $0 | Jun 7, 2027 |
| Querétaro Governor Election Winner | Luis Bernardo Nava Guerrero 36.5% | — | $0 | Jun 7, 2027 |
| Chihuahua Governor Election Winner | Cruz Pérez Cuéllar 48% | +1.5 pts | $0 | Jun 7, 2027 |
| USMCA extended in 2026? | Yes 9.5% | — | $0 | Jan 1, 2027 |
| García out as Governor of Nuevo León by…? | December 31, 2026 5.5% | — | $0 | Jan 1, 2027 |
For multi-outcome markets the leading outcome is the one with the highest price; for yes/no markets it is the YES price. Prices are Polymarket share prices read as probabilities, not executable quotes.
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As of September 25, 2026 at 12:50 UTC, Polymarket lists 32 live Mexico markets with $20.4K traded in the last 24 hours. The most active is Bank of Mexico Decision in November? (No change 70.5%), followed by Polo makes landfall in Mexico as a hurricane? (Yes 83%), Highest temperature in Mexico City on September 26? (26°C 46.5%).
32 live markets as of September 25, 2026, not counting single games and markets that close within a few hours. The table lists them by 24-hour trading volume and refreshes twice a day.
From Polymarket's public market data. Each probability is the displayed price of an outcome's YES share, so 60¢ reads as roughly a 60% chance. Polymarket View is independent and not affiliated with Polymarket; nothing here is financial advice.
Paste this on your site or newsletter — it shows the five most-traded Mexico markets and updates twice a day.
<iframe src="https://polymarkettrader.com/embed/topic/mexico/" width="100%" height="280" style="border:0;max-width:560px" loading="lazy" title="Mexico odds on Polymarket"></iframe> <p><a href="https://polymarkettrader.com/odds/mexico/">Mexico odds</a> via <a href="https://polymarkettrader.com/">PolymarketTrader</a></p>
/api/v1/topics/mexico.json — every live market on the topic, CC BY 4.0 (credit “PolymarketTrader” with a link). See the developer docs.
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Polymarket View, “Mexico odds on Polymarket”, September 25, 2026, https://polymarkettrader.com/odds/mexico/ (data: Polymarket, CC BY 4.0).
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