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Updated October 6, 2026 · Category: Geopolitics & World · Market end date: November 1, 2026
As of October 6, 2026 at 00:50 UTC, the leading outcome is By October 31, 2026 at 24.5%, followed by By October 15, 2026 at 15%. The market has $20.9K in total volume and $15.1K in the last 24 hours.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| By October 31, 2026 | 24.5% | -5.0 pts | $9.1K |
| By October 15, 2026 | 15% | -4.5 pts | $11.8K |
Total volume $20.9K · 24h volume $15.1K · Liquidity $3.5K. Prices are Polymarket YES-share prices read as probabilities; they are not executable quotes.
■ By October 31, 2026 ■ By October 15, 2026 · 30-day price history (12-hour points)
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This market will resolve to "Yes" if a confirmed case of pneumonic plague in a human is reported in the Russian Federation at any point between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM Moscow time, . Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "confirmed case" is a case explicitly identified by a qualifying source as laboratory-confirmed Yersinia pestis infection with pneumonic (pulmonary) involvement, or explicitly announced as a confirmed pneumonic plague case. Publication of the underlying laboratory results is not required. A bubonic or septicemic case that progresses to pneumonic plague qualifies. A case reported only as "plague" with no form specified, and a case described only as suspected or probable, do not qualify.
The case must be distinct from the Irkutsk Anti-Plague Research Institute employee who reportedly passed away on October 1, 2026; subsequent confirmation, reclassification, or post-mortem testing of that patient will not qualify. Resolution turns on the date a qualifying source publishes the confirmation, not the date of exposure, symptom onset, or laboratory result. A report published after the deadline does not count even if the infection occurred earlier.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from Russian federal or regional public health authorities and the WHO; however a consensus of credible sources will also suffice.
Summary of the market's published rules. The rules on Polymarket control settlement; check them there before relying on any outcome: open this market on Polymarket.
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As of October 6, 2026 at 00:50 UTC, the leading outcome is By October 31, 2026 at 24.5%, followed by By October 15, 2026 at 15%. The market has $20.9K in total volume and $15.1K in the last 24 hours.
The event's listed end date is November 1, 2026. Each outcome settles under the market's written rules, summarized on this page, which can differ from the end-date field.
They are the displayed prices of each outcome's YES share on Polymarket. A price of 60¢ implies roughly a 60% chance. This page refreshes the numbers twice a day, so they are not live quotes.
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