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Updated October 4, 2026 · Category: Economy & Fed · Market end date: October 30, 2026
As of October 4, 2026 at 12:50 UTC, the leading outcome is 0.8-1.1% at 40%, followed by 1.2-1.5% at 39.4%, 0.4-0.7% at 12.8%. The market has $65.0K in total volume and $1.6K in the last 24 hours.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.8-1.1% | 40% | -6.5 pts | $43.2K |
| 1.2-1.5% | 39.4% | +15.8 pts | $5.1K |
| 0.4-0.7% | 12.8% | -1.4 pts | $10.1K |
| 0.0-0.3% | 8.2% | -3.5 pts | $1.7K |
| <0.0% | 0.6% | — | $1.8K |
| 2.0%+ | 0.5% | +0.1 pts | $1.4K |
| 1.6-1.9% | 0.1% | — | $1.7K |
Total volume $65.0K · 24h volume $1.6K · Liquidity $5.8K. Prices are Polymarket YES-share prices read as probabilities; they are not executable quotes.
■ 0.8-1.1% ■ 1.2-1.5% ■ 0.4-0.7% · 30-day price history (12-hour points)
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This market will resolve according to the Eurozone (Euro Area 21) Q3 2026 GDP growth rate over the same quarter of the previous year (% change), based on seasonally adjusted data, in the Eurostat Preliminary Flash Estimate of GDP release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for October 30, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/main/news/euro-indicators
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
This market’s resolution source reports GDP growth rates to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced flash GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Summary of the market's published rules. The rules on Polymarket control settlement; check them there before relying on any outcome: open this market on Polymarket.
More odds by topic: US Economy odds
As of October 4, 2026 at 12:50 UTC, the leading outcome is 0.8-1.1% at 40%, followed by 1.2-1.5% at 39.4%, 0.4-0.7% at 12.8%. The market has $65.0K in total volume and $1.6K in the last 24 hours.
The event's listed end date is October 30, 2026. Each outcome settles under the market's written rules, summarized on this page, which can differ from the end-date field.
They are the displayed prices of each outcome's YES share on Polymarket. A price of 60¢ implies roughly a 60% chance. This page refreshes the numbers twice a day, so they are not live quotes.
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