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US Economy Odds on Polymarket
Updated September 23, 2026 · 135 live markets · refreshed twice a day
The US economy: GDP growth, jobs reports, recession risk and economic policy. Every live market on the topic is below, with the leading outcome's probability, its 24-hour change, trading volume and end date.
Live US Economy markets
| Market | Leading outcome | 24h change | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|
| Fed Decision in October? | 25 bps increase 67.5% | +17.0 pts | $1.02M | Oct 29, 2026 |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? | Yes 20.5% | -2.0 pts | $324.3K | Jan 1, 2027 |
| Largest Company end of September? | NVIDIA 99.4% | +0.5 pts | $46.6K | Oct 1, 2026 |
| How many Fed rate cuts in 2026? | 0 (0 bps) 96.5% | +0.3 pts | $35.1K | Jan 1, 2027 |
| How high will 10-year Treasury yield go before 2027? | 5.1% 87% | +17.0 pts | $32.3K | Jan 1, 2027 |
| Fed Decision in December? | 25 bps increase 70.5% | +3.0 pts | $31.5K | Dec 10, 2026 |
| Bank of England decision in November? | 25 bps increase 69.5% | +5.0 pts | $29.0K | Nov 5, 2026 |
| Another Fed rate hike in 2026? | Yes 88.5% | +3.0 pts | $27.9K | Dec 9, 2026 |
| Largest Company end of December 2026? | NVIDIA 75.5% | -2.0 pts | $24.0K | Jan 1, 2027 |
| ECB Interest Rates: October 2026 | No change 58.5% | -9.5 pts | $18.4K | Oct 30, 2026 |
| September Inflation US - Annual | 3.6% 46% | +1.5 pts | $17.9K | Oct 15, 2026 |
| Fed decisions (Sep–Dec) | Hike–Hike–Hike 35% | +7.5 pts | $15.8K | Dec 9, 2026 |
| How high will 30-year Treasury yield go before 2027? | 5.40% 79% | +7.0 pts | $10.5K | Dec 31, 2026 |
| Central Bank of Colombia decision in September | No change 77% | +14.5 pts | $9.5K | Oct 1, 2026 |
| How high will 10-year Treasury yield go in September? | 5.05% 91.5% | +45.0 pts | $8.9K | Sep 30, 2026 |
| Reserve Bank of Australia Decision in September | 25 bps increase 95.8% | -0.7 pts | $8.2K | Sep 30, 2026 |
| How low will 30-year Treasury yield get in September? | Below 5.24% 8.5% | -26.5 pts | $7.6K | Sep 30, 2026 |
| Reserve Bank of New Zealand decision in October? | 25 bps increase 45% | -16.5 pts | $7.3K | Oct 28, 2026 |
| How low will 10-year Treasury yield get before 2027? | Below 4.6% 31% | -13.5 pts | $7.1K | Jan 1, 2027 |
| How low will 30-year Treasury yield get before 2027? | Below 5.10% 46% | -3.5 pts | $6.6K | Dec 31, 2026 |
| Fed emergency rate cut before 2027? | Yes 2.1% | -0.7 pts | $6.6K | Jan 1, 2027 |
| Core PCE YoY - August 2026 | 3.4% 38% | +8.0 pts | $6.5K | Sep 30, 2026 |
| US recession by end of 2026? | Yes 8.5% | -0.5 pts | $6.5K | Dec 31, 2026 |
| USD x Iranian rials End of September? | 2.2M+ 91% | +6.0 pts | $6.3K | Oct 1, 2026 |
| Swiss National Bank decision in September? | No Change 99.7% | +0.1 pts | $6.3K | Sep 24, 2026 |
| NYSE marketwide circuit breaker before 2027? | Yes 10.5% | -4.0 pts | $6.3K | Jan 1, 2027 |
| Elon Musk Net Worth on September 30? | $900B-$1.00T 62% | -9.5 pts | $6.1K | Oct 1, 2026 |
| How high will 30-year Treasury yield go in September? | 5.39% 62% | +41.0 pts | $5.3K | Sep 30, 2026 |
| What will Fed Rate hit before 2027? | ↑ 4.25% 85.3% | +6.3 pts | $5.2K | Dec 31, 2026 |
| US economic state at the end of 2026? | Overheating (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%) 68% | -8.5 pts | $5.1K | Feb 1, 2027 |
| Bank of Canada Decision in October? | No Change 53.6% | -1.1 pts | $4.8K | Oct 28, 2026 |
| Bank of Mexico Decision in September? | No change 99.2% | +0.1 pts | $4.6K | Sep 24, 2026 |
| Reserve Bank of New Zealand decision in December? | No change 51% | +13.5 pts | $4.0K | Dec 9, 2026 |
| How low will 10-year Treasury yield get in September? | Below 4.76% 3.6% | -4.0 pts | $3.8K | Sep 30, 2026 |
| India Annual Inflation 2026 | 4.50%+ 88.5% | -2.0 pts | $3.7K | Jan 13, 2027 |
| 3rd Largest Company end of September? | Alphabet 97.2% | -0.9 pts | $3.6K | Oct 1, 2026 |
| How high will 5-year Treasury yield go before 2027? | 4.90% 84.2% | +16.4 pts | $3.4K | Dec 31, 2026 |
| What will the median home value in New York City be on September 30? | $663K - $689K 79.4% | -9.2 pts | $3.3K | Oct 11, 2026 |
| What will the median home value in Miami be on September 30? | $1.161M - $1.196M 68.5% | +28.2 pts | $3.1K | Oct 11, 2026 |
| What will the median home value in the US be on September 30? | <$419K 61.6% | -9.2 pts | $3.0K | Oct 11, 2026 |
95 smaller markets are not shown; all 135 are in the JSON data.
For multi-outcome markets the leading outcome is the one with the highest price; for yes/no markets it is the YES price. Prices are Polymarket share prices read as probabilities, not executable quotes.
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Frequently asked questions
What are the US Economy odds on Polymarket today?
As of September 23, 2026 at 15:42 UTC, Polymarket lists 135 live US Economy markets with $1.84M traded in the last 24 hours. The most active is Fed Decision in October? (25 bps increase 67.5%), followed by Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? (Yes 20.5%), Largest Company end of September? (NVIDIA 99.4%).
How many US Economy markets are open on Polymarket?
135 live markets as of September 23, 2026, not counting single games and markets that close within a few hours. The table lists them by 24-hour trading volume and refreshes twice a day.
Where do these odds come from?
From Polymarket's public market data. Each probability is the displayed price of an outcome's YES share, so 60¢ reads as roughly a 60% chance. Polymarket View is independent and not affiliated with Polymarket; nothing here is financial advice.
Use this data
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