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Updated September 27, 2026 · Category: Politics & Elections · Market end date: January 1, 2027
As of September 27, 2026 at 00:50 UTC, the leading outcome is By December 31, 2026 at 11%, followed by By November 2, 2026 at 2.1%. The market has $21.7K in total volume and $4.8K in the last 24 hours.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| By December 31, 2026 | 11% | +3.5 pts | $12.2K |
| By November 2, 2026 | 2.1% | — | $8.2K |
| By Between Nov. 3 and Jan. 3 12PM (settled) | 0.0% | +20.5 pts | $1.3K |
Total volume $21.7K · 24h volume $4.8K · Liquidity $21.6K. Prices are Polymarket YES-share prices read as probabilities; they are not executable quotes.
■ By December 31, 2026 ■ By November 2, 2026 · 30-day price history (12-hour points)
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This market will resolve to “Yes” if John Fetterman officially announces that he is leaving, or formally leaves, the Democratic Party by the specified date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
For purposes of this market, "Before the Midterms" is defined to mean by November 2, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET.
Announcements from Fetterman that he will join the Republican Party, become an independent, join another political party, or otherwise cease to be a member of the Democratic Party will qualify. A consensus of credible reporting that Fetterman has formally left the Democratic Party will also suffice.
Statements criticizing the Democratic Party, voting with Republicans, endorsing Republican candidates, describing himself as bipartisan or independent-minded, or expressing disagreement with Democratic Party positions will not qualify unless accompanied by an official announcement that he is leaving the Democratic Party or a consensus of credible reporting that he has formally left the Democratic Party.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from John Fetterman; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Summary of the market's published rules. The rules on Polymarket control settlement; check them there before relying on any outcome: open this market on Polymarket.
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As of September 27, 2026 at 00:50 UTC, the leading outcome is By December 31, 2026 at 11%, followed by By November 2, 2026 at 2.1%. The market has $21.7K in total volume and $4.8K in the last 24 hours.
The event's listed end date is January 1, 2027. Each outcome settles under the market's written rules, summarized on this page, which can differ from the end-date field.
They are the displayed prices of each outcome's YES share on Polymarket. A price of 60¢ implies roughly a 60% chance. This page refreshes the numbers twice a day, so they are not live quotes.
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