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Senate Races Odds on Polymarket

Updated November 7, 2026 · 18 live markets · refreshed twice a day

As of November 7, 2026 at 12:50 UTC, Polymarket lists 18 live Senate Races markets with $37.8K traded in the last 24 hours. The most active is Mississippi Senate Election Margin of Victory (Colom 0.6-0.9% 63%), followed by Government shutdown? (By December 31 38.5%), Next US Senate Minority Leader? (John Thune 92.5%).

US Senate races and which party holds the Senate after the 2026 midterms. Every live market on the topic is below, with the leading outcome's probability, its 24-hour change, trading volume and end date.

🗳 2026 Senate forecast · 2026 midterm forecast (all chambers): every race in one table with each party's chance and a safe/likely/lean/toss-up rating.

Live Senate Races markets

MarketLeading outcome24h change24h volumeEnds
Mississippi Senate Election Margin of VictoryColom 0.6-0.9% 63%+29.6 pts$14.3KNov 21, 2026
Government shutdown?By December 31 38.5%+8.0 pts$8.5KJan 1, 2027
Next US Senate Minority Leader?John Thune 92.5%+6.0 pts$7.3KJan 3, 2027
How many government shutdowns by December 31, 2027?1 36%+0.5 pts$2.6KJan 1, 2028
Next Senator in Klobuchar's Minnesota seat?Steve Simon 38.5%—$1.6KApr 1, 2027
Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends?Yes 3.9%+0.1 pts$1.2KJan 4, 2027
Will AOC announce a run for Senate or President before 2028?President 43%+0.5 pts$780Jan 1, 2028
Next Senator in Blackburn's Tennessee seat?Glenn Jacobs 42.5%+20.0 pts$779Apr 1, 2027
Fetterman leaves the Democrats?By December 31, 2026 3.7%-0.2 pts$544Jan 1, 2027
Alaska Senator sworn in by January 5?Yes 94.5%+5.0 pts$195Jan 6, 2027
Any member-elect blocked from being sworn in on Jan 3, 2027?Yes 14.5%+0.5 pts$32Jan 4, 2027
Which party will win the Senate in 2028?Democratic Party 86.5%—$19Nov 8, 2028
Will the GOP use 'Nuclear Option' to break filibuster?By December 31, 2026 11.5%—$0Jan 1, 2027
John Fetterman out?By December 31 5.5%—$0Jan 1, 2027
Heidi Overton confirmed as FDA Commissioner?By December 31 35%-0.5 pts$0Jan 1, 2027
Hung Cao confirmed as Secretary of the Navy?By December 31 30%+0.5 pts$0Jan 1, 2027
Spain General Election: Elected Senate WinnerPP 94.5%—$0Nov 30, 2026
Jon Ossoff or Raphael Warnock out from the Senate in 2026?Yes 2.9%—$0Jan 1, 2027

For multi-outcome markets the leading outcome is the one with the highest price; for yes/no markets it is the YES price. Prices are Polymarket share prices read as probabilities, not executable quotes.

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People in these markets

John Thune · Cory Booker · Mark Kelly · Tom Cotton · Rick Scott · Chuck Schumer · Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez · Pete Hegseth

More Politics & Elections odds

Trump (117) · 2028 Presidential Election (45) · 2026 Midterms (3) · Governor Races (0) · House Races (0) · Supreme Court (45) · World Elections (128) · Brazil (26) · France (37) · Germany (15) · United Kingdom (23) · Canada (38) · Mexico (62) · Politics (78)

Frequently asked questions

What are the Senate Races odds on Polymarket today?

As of November 7, 2026 at 12:50 UTC, Polymarket lists 18 live Senate Races markets with $37.8K traded in the last 24 hours. The most active is Mississippi Senate Election Margin of Victory (Colom 0.6-0.9% 63%), followed by Government shutdown? (By December 31 38.5%), Next US Senate Minority Leader? (John Thune 92.5%).

How many Senate Races markets are open on Polymarket?

18 live markets as of November 7, 2026, not counting single games and markets that close within a few hours. The table lists them by 24-hour trading volume and refreshes twice a day.

Where do these odds come from?

From Polymarket's public market data. Each probability is the displayed price of an outcome's YES share, so 60¢ reads as roughly a 60% chance. Polymarket View is independent and not affiliated with Polymarket; nothing here is financial advice.

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Polymarket View, “Senate Races odds on Polymarket”, November 7, 2026, https://polymarkettrader.com/odds/senate/ (data: Polymarket, CC BY 4.0).

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