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Updated September 23, 2026 · 128 live markets · refreshed twice a day
As of September 23, 2026 at 15:42 UTC, Polymarket lists 128 live Senate Races markets with $467.3K traded in the last 24 hours. The most active is Alaska Senate Election Winner (Mary Peltola 74.5%), followed by Michigan Senate Election Winner (Abdul El-Sayed (D) 71.5%), Which party will win the Senate in 2026? (Democratic Party 65.5%).
US Senate races and which party holds the Senate after the 2026 midterms. Every live market on the topic is below, with the leading outcome's probability, its 24-hour change, trading volume and end date.
| Market | Leading outcome | 24h change | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alaska Senate Election Winner | Mary Peltola 74.5% | -5.0 pts | $116.6K | Aug 1, 2027 |
| Michigan Senate Election Winner | Abdul El-Sayed (D) 71.5% | — | $91.8K | Nov 3, 2026 |
| Which party will win the Senate in 2026? | Democratic Party 65.5% | — | $48.4K | Jan 5, 2027 |
| Texas Senate Election Winner | James Talarico (D) 61.5% | — | $32.9K | Nov 3, 2026 |
| North Carolina Senate Election Winner | Roy Cooper (D) 94.5% | +2.0 pts | $30.3K | Nov 3, 2026 |
| Maine Senate Election Winner | Troy Jackson (D) 73.5% | +1.0 pts | $26.4K | Nov 3, 2026 |
| Nebraska Senate Election Winner | Pete Ricketts (R) 67.5% | — | $22.0K | Nov 4, 2026 |
| Iowa Senate Election Winner | Ashley Hinson (R) 51.5% | +0.5 pts | $21.1K | Nov 3, 2026 |
| Ohio Senate Election Winner | Sherrod Brown (D) 62.5% | -0.5 pts | $18.6K | Nov 3, 2026 |
| South Carolina Senate Election Winner | Darline Graham Nordone (R) 86.5% | — | $16.9K | Nov 3, 2026 |
| Georgia Senate Election Winner | Jon Ossoff (D) 94.5% | +1.0 pts | $8.9K | Nov 3, 2026 |
| Montana Senate Election Winner | Kurt Alme (R) 90.5% | -1.0 pts | $5.6K | Nov 3, 2026 |
| Closest Senate Race? | Texas 14.5% | — | $3.2K | Nov 1, 2026 |
| Idaho Senate Election Winner | Jim Risch (R) 94.6% | -0.4 pts | $3.1K | Nov 3, 2026 |
| Kansas Senate Election Winner | Roger Marshall (R) 68.5% | +1.0 pts | $2.2K | Nov 3, 2026 |
| Which Senate races will be within 5%? | Texas 75.5% | -1.0 pts | $1.3K | Nov 4, 2026 |
| Mississippi Senate Election Winner | Cindy Hyde-Smith (R) 91.5% | — | $1.3K | Nov 3, 2026 |
| Montana Senate Election Margin of Victory | Republican 12-15% 17.5% | -17.0 pts | $1.2K | Nov 4, 2026 |
| Wyoming Senate Election Winner | Harriet Hageman (R) 96.8% | -0.1 pts | $1.0K | Nov 3, 2026 |
| Florida Senate Election Winner | Ashley Moody (R) 91.5% | — | $992 | — |
| Alaska Senate Election Margin of Victory (First Round) | Peltola 0-3% 26% | +3.5 pts | $974 | Nov 3, 2026 |
| Texas Senate Election: Denton County Winner | Ken Paxton (R) 60.5% | — | $726 | Nov 3, 2026 |
| Michigan Senate Election: Grand Traverse County Winner | Abdul El-Sayed (D) 60.5% | — | $676 | Nov 3, 2026 |
| Rhode Island Senate Election Winner | Jack Reed (D) 98% | +1.7 pts | $602 | Nov 3, 2026 |
| Virginia Senate Election Margin of Victory | Democrat 21%+ 43% | +6.5 pts | $546 | Nov 4, 2026 |
| Which Senate races will be within 1%? | Texas 27% | +8.5 pts | $536 | Nov 4, 2026 |
| South Carolina Senate Election: Turnout | 1.8M-2M 42.5% | -6.0 pts | $535 | Apr 1, 2027 |
| Republicans win Trifecta with Senate Supermajority in midterms? | Yes 1.9% | -1.1 pts | $503 | Jan 5, 2027 |
| Fetterman leaves the Democrats? | By December 31, 2026 9.5% | — | $496 | Jan 1, 2027 |
| Michigan Senate Election: Turnout | 4.4M-4.6M 37.5% | +9.5 pts | $490 | Apr 1, 2027 |
| Senate Three-Way Combo: Texas, Michigan, Maine | Dems sweep 54.5% | +10.0 pts | $439 | Nov 3, 2026 |
| Illinois Senate Election: Turnout | 4.25M-4.5M 39.5% | — | $434 | Apr 1, 2027 |
| Florida Senate Election: Broward County Winner | Angie Nixon (D) 92.7% | -3.3 pts | $430 | Nov 3, 2026 |
| John Fetterman out? | By December 31 2.1% | — | $401 | Dec 31, 2026 |
| Louisiana Senate Election: Turnout | 1.4M-1.5M 32% | — | $364 | Apr 1, 2027 |
| New Hampshire Senate Election Winner | Chris Pappas (D) 85.5% | +0.5 pts | $326 | Nov 3, 2026 |
| Oregon Senate Election: Turnout | 2M-2.1M 49.5% | -7.0 pts | $302 | Apr 1, 2027 |
| Minnesota Senate Election Winner | Peggy Flanagan (D) 92.5% | — | $300 | Nov 3, 2026 |
| Closest Governor's Race? | Ohio 14.4% | +0.4 pts | $244 | Nov 1, 2026 |
| Colorado Senate Election: Turnout | 2.55M-2.7M 32.5% | -0.5 pts | $223 | Apr 1, 2027 |
88 smaller markets are not shown; all 128 are in the JSON data.
For multi-outcome markets the leading outcome is the one with the highest price; for yes/no markets it is the YES price. Prices are Polymarket share prices read as probabilities, not executable quotes.
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As of September 23, 2026 at 15:42 UTC, Polymarket lists 128 live Senate Races markets with $467.3K traded in the last 24 hours. The most active is Alaska Senate Election Winner (Mary Peltola 74.5%), followed by Michigan Senate Election Winner (Abdul El-Sayed (D) 71.5%), Which party will win the Senate in 2026? (Democratic Party 65.5%).
128 live markets as of September 23, 2026, not counting single games and markets that close within a few hours. The table lists them by 24-hour trading volume and refreshes twice a day.
From Polymarket's public market data. Each probability is the displayed price of an outcome's YES share, so 60¢ reads as roughly a 60% chance. Polymarket View is independent and not affiliated with Polymarket; nothing here is financial advice.
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<iframe src="https://polymarkettrader.com/embed/topic/senate/" width="100%" height="280" style="border:0;max-width:560px" loading="lazy" title="Senate Races odds on Polymarket"></iframe> <p><a href="https://polymarkettrader.com/odds/senate/">Senate Races odds</a> via <a href="https://polymarkettrader.com/">PolymarketTrader</a></p>
/api/v1/topics/senate.json — every live market on the topic, CC BY 4.0 (credit “PolymarketTrader” with a link). See the developer docs.
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