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Updated November 12, 2026 · Category: Politics & Elections · Market end date: January 3, 2027
As of November 12, 2026 at 00:50 UTC, the leading outcome is Katherine Clark at 96.4%, followed by Pete Aguilar at 2.7%, Tom Emmer at 1.1%. The market has $21.8K in total volume and $17 in the last 24 hours.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| Katherine Clark | 96.4% | +0.4 pts | $7.5K |
| Pete Aguilar | 2.7% | -0.4 pts | $2.2K |
| Tom Emmer | 1.1% | — | $1.5K |
| Hakeem Jeffries | 0.4% | — | $2.6K |
| Joe Neguse | 0.2% | +0.1 pts | $1.6K |
| Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez | <0.1% | — | $1.4K |
| Ted Lieu | <0.1% | — | $1.4K |
| Jim Jordan | <0.1% | — | $1.4K |
| Lisa McClain | <0.1% | — | $1.3K |
| Steve Scalise | <0.1% | — | $820 |
Total volume $21.8K · 24h volume $17 · Liquidity $53.3K. Prices are Polymarket YES-share prices read as probabilities; they are not executable quotes.
■ Katherine Clark ■ Pete Aguilar ■ Tom Emmer · 30-day price history (12-hour points)
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This market will resolve according to the first individual selected to be Majority Leader of the United States House of Representatives for the 120th United States Congress, which is scheduled to convene in January 2027 following the 2026 United States midterm elections.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the United States House of Representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Summary of the market's published rules. The rules on Polymarket control settlement; check them there before relying on any outcome: open this market on Polymarket.
More odds by topic: 2026 Midterms odds · Politics odds
As of November 12, 2026 at 00:50 UTC, the leading outcome is Katherine Clark at 96.4%, followed by Pete Aguilar at 2.7%, Tom Emmer at 1.1%. The market has $21.8K in total volume and $17 in the last 24 hours.
The event's listed end date is January 3, 2027. Each outcome settles under the market's written rules, summarized on this page, which can differ from the end-date field.
They are the displayed prices of each outcome's YES share on Polymarket. A price of 60¢ implies roughly a 60% chance. This page refreshes the numbers twice a day, so they are not live quotes.
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