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Updated October 11, 2026 · Category: Economy & Fed · Market end date: November 7, 2026
As of October 11, 2026 at 00:50 UTC, the leading outcome is 100k+ at 29%, followed by 50k to 75k at 17%, 0 to 25k at 16.3%. The market has $20.7K in total volume and $7.8K in the last 24 hours.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| 100k+ | 29% | +0.5 pts | $11.8K |
| 50k to 75k | 17% | -3.5 pts | $1.5K |
| 0 to 25k | 16.3% | +3.1 pts | $1.8K |
| 75k to 100k | 13.5% | +3.4 pts | $547 |
| 25k to 50k | 12.5% | +2.0 pts | $1.6K |
| <-25k | 10.8% | +0.7 pts | $1.5K |
| -25k to 0 | 3.2% | — | $2.1K |
Total volume $20.7K · 24h volume $7.8K · Liquidity $7.9K. Prices are Polymarket YES-share prices read as probabilities; they are not executable quotes.
■ 100k+ ■ 50k to 75k ■ 0 to 25k · 30-day price history (12-hour points)
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This market will resolve according to the change in the total nonfarm payroll employment reported by the BLS "Employment Situation Summary" for October 2026, scheduled to be released on November 6, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The BLS "Employment Situation Summary" may be found here: https://www.bls.gov/bls/newsrels.htm
Summary of the market's published rules. The rules on Polymarket control settlement; check them there before relying on any outcome: open this market on Polymarket.
More odds by topic: US Economy odds
As of October 11, 2026 at 00:50 UTC, the leading outcome is 100k+ at 29%, followed by 50k to 75k at 17%, 0 to 25k at 16.3%. The market has $20.7K in total volume and $7.8K in the last 24 hours.
The event's listed end date is November 7, 2026. Each outcome settles under the market's written rules, summarized on this page, which can differ from the end-date field.
They are the displayed prices of each outcome's YES share on Polymarket. A price of 60¢ implies roughly a 60% chance. This page refreshes the numbers twice a day, so they are not live quotes.
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