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Updated October 3, 2026 · Category: Politics & Elections · Market end date: January 1, 2027
As of October 3, 2026 at 00:50 UTC, the leading outcome is 6 at 44.5%, followed by 7 at 15.5%, 8 at 12.2%. The market has $34.5K in total volume and $1.5K in the last 24 hours.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 44.5% | -28.0 pts | $14.8K |
| 7 | 15.5% | — | $4.5K |
| 8 | 12.2% | +7.2 pts | $3.1K |
| 10+ | 3.5% | +0.5 pts | $1.3K |
| 9 | 1.7% | +0.2 pts | $1.1K |
| ≤5 | 1.0% | +0.4 pts | $9.7K |
Total volume $34.5K · 24h volume $1.5K · Liquidity $63.8K. Prices are Polymarket YES-share prices read as probabilities; they are not executable quotes.
■ 6 ■ 7 ■ 8 · 30-day price history (12-hour points)
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This market will resolve according to the total number of UK parliamentary by-elections held in 2026.
Qualifying by-elections must be elections to the UK House of Commons for a vacant parliamentary seat, with polling day scheduled and held within the 2026 calendar year.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from the UK Parliament (https://www.parliament.uk/).
Summary of the market's published rules. The rules on Polymarket control settlement; check them there before relying on any outcome: open this market on Polymarket.
More odds by topic: United Kingdom odds · Politics odds
As of October 3, 2026 at 00:50 UTC, the leading outcome is 6 at 44.5%, followed by 7 at 15.5%, 8 at 12.2%. The market has $34.5K in total volume and $1.5K in the last 24 hours.
The event's listed end date is January 1, 2027. Each outcome settles under the market's written rules, summarized on this page, which can differ from the end-date field.
They are the displayed prices of each outcome's YES share on Polymarket. A price of 60¢ implies roughly a 60% chance. This page refreshes the numbers twice a day, so they are not live quotes.
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