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Updated October 21, 2026 · Category: Economy & Fed · Market end date: November 2, 2026
As of October 21, 2026 at 00:50 UTC, the leading outcome is 53.0 to 53.9 at 31.5%, followed by 54.0 to 54.9 at 27.5%, 55.0 to 55.9 at 17.5%. The market has $21.8K in total volume and $7.8K in the last 24 hours.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| 53.0 to 53.9 | 31.5% | +5.5 pts | $4.2K |
| 54.0 to 54.9 | 27.5% | +2.0 pts | $1.8K |
| 55.0 to 55.9 | 17.5% | -4.5 pts | $1.9K |
| 56.0 to 56.9 | 14.6% | +5.3 pts | $8.0K |
| 52.0 to 52.9 | 5.3% | -3.6 pts | $2.6K |
| 51.0 to 51.9 | 4.0% | -6.3 pts | $1.0K |
| 59.0+ | 1.1% | — | $400 |
| 57.0 to 57.9 | 0.7% | — | $908 |
| 58.0 to 58.9 | 0.5% | +0.1 pts | $483 |
| <51.0 | 0.2% | -0.2 pts | $399 |
Total volume $21.8K · 24h volume $7.8K · Liquidity $10.4K. Prices are Polymarket YES-share prices read as probabilities; they are not executable quotes.
■ 53.0 to 53.9 ■ 54.0 to 54.9 ■ 55.0 to 55.9 · 30-day price history (12-hour points)
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This is a market about the ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for October 2026, as reported by the Institute for Supply Management (ISM). A reading above 50 indicates expansion in the manufacturing sector relative to the previous month; a reading below 50 indicates contraction.
This market will resolve to the bracket containing the ISM Manufacturing PMI for October 2026 according to the monthly ISM Manufacturing PMI Report On Business.
The resolution source for this market will be the ISM Manufacturing PMI Report On Business released for October 2026 (https://www.ismworld.org/supply-management-news-and-reports/reports/ism-report-on-business/), currently scheduled to be released on November 2, 2026, at 10:00 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: although ISM describes the PMI reading using the term "percent" in its official release (e.g., "The Manufacturing PMI registered 52.7 percent"), the PMI is a diffusion index, not a true percentage. For the purposes of this market, the PMI reading will be treated as a plain numerical value, consistent with how the index is universally quoted in financial markets.
Note: The ISM Manufacturing PMI is reported to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market.
If ISM does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open until the scheduled release time of the next ISM Manufacturing PMI report (https://www.ismworld.org/supply-management-news-and-reports/reports/rob-report-calendar/). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
Summary of the market's published rules. The rules on Polymarket control settlement; check them there before relying on any outcome: open this market on Polymarket.
More odds by topic: US Economy odds
As of October 21, 2026 at 00:50 UTC, the leading outcome is 53.0 to 53.9 at 31.5%, followed by 54.0 to 54.9 at 27.5%, 55.0 to 55.9 at 17.5%. The market has $21.8K in total volume and $7.8K in the last 24 hours.
The event's listed end date is November 2, 2026. Each outcome settles under the market's written rules, summarized on this page, which can differ from the end-date field.
They are the displayed prices of each outcome's YES share on Polymarket. A price of 60¢ implies roughly a 60% chance. This page refreshes the numbers twice a day, so they are not live quotes.
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