Home › Polymarket odds › Politics & Elections
Updated October 4, 2026 · Category: Politics & Elections · Market end date: January 1, 2027
As of October 4, 2026 at 12:50 UTC, the leading outcome is By December 31 at 4.0%. The market has $244.6K in total volume and $703 in the last 24 hours.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| By December 31 | 4.0% | -0.5 pts | $153.3K |
| By June 30 (settled) | 0.0% | — | $59.5K |
| By June 15 (settled) | 0.0% | — | $27.4K |
| By July 31 (settled) | 0.0% | — | $4.4K |
Total volume $244.6K · 24h volume $703 · Liquidity $23.1K. Prices are Polymarket YES-share prices read as probabilities; they are not executable quotes.
■ By December 31 · 30-day price history (12-hour points)
🔔 Get alerts when big markets move — free Telegram watchlist
This market will resolve to “Yes” if JD Vance ceases to be Vice-President of the United States for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Vance's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
If the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from JD Vance and the government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Summary of the market's published rules. The rules on Polymarket control settlement; check them there before relying on any outcome: open this market on Polymarket.
More odds by topic: Trump odds · Politics odds
As of October 4, 2026 at 12:50 UTC, the leading outcome is By December 31 at 4.0%. The market has $244.6K in total volume and $703 in the last 24 hours.
The event's listed end date is January 1, 2027. Each outcome settles under the market's written rules, summarized on this page, which can differ from the end-date field.
They are the displayed prices of each outcome's YES share on Polymarket. A price of 60¢ implies roughly a 60% chance. This page refreshes the numbers twice a day, so they are not live quotes.
Paste this on your site, blog or newsletter. It updates with our page. How to embed
<iframe src="https://polymarkettrader.com/embed/odds/jd-vance-out-as-vp/" width="100%" height="300" style="border:0;max-width:560px" loading="lazy" title="JD Vance out as VP? odds"></iframe> <p><a href="https://polymarkettrader.com/odds/jd-vance-out-as-vp/">JD Vance out as VP? odds</a> via <a href="https://polymarkettrader.com/">PolymarketTrader</a></p>
/api/v1/odds/jd-vance-out-as-vp.json — CC BY 4.0, credit “PolymarketTrader” with a link. See the developer docs.
Polymarket View, “JD Vance out as VP? — Polymarket odds”, October 4, 2026, https://polymarkettrader.com/odds/jd-vance-out-as-vp/ (data: Polymarket, CC BY 4.0).
For READMEs, newsletters and forums. Markdown:
[](https://polymarkettrader.com/odds/jd-vance-out-as-vp/)
HTML:
<a href="https://polymarkettrader.com/odds/jd-vance-out-as-vp/"><img src="https://polymarkettrader.com/badge/odds/jd-vance-out-as-vp.svg" alt="JD Vance out as VP? odds on Polymarket" width="400" height="64"></a>
Polymarket View is an independent research site, not affiliated with Polymarket. Educational information, not financial advice. All Polymarket odds · Event hubs · Blog