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Updated September 28, 2026 · Category: Economy & Fed · Market end date: January 1, 2028
As of September 28, 2026 at 12:50 UTC, the leading outcome is June 30, 2027 at 81%, followed by March 31, 2027 at 65.5%, December 31, 2027 at 60.5%. The market has $1.61M in total volume and $0 in the last 24 hours.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| June 30, 2027 | 81% | — | $356 |
| March 31, 2027 | 65.5% | +0.5 pts | $1.5K |
| December 31, 2027 | 60.5% | -1.0 pts | $272 |
| December 31, 2026 | 4.6% | — | $570.0K |
| March 31, 2026 (settled) | 0.0% | -0.5 pts | $545.6K |
| December 31 (settled) | 0.0% | -0.1 pts | $494.5K |
Total volume $1.61M · 24h volume $0 · Liquidity $3.0K. Prices are Polymarket YES-share prices read as probabilities; they are not executable quotes.
■ June 30, 2027 ■ March 31, 2027 ■ December 31, 2027 · 30-day price history (12-hour points)
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This market will resolve to "Yes" if Kraken (US-based cryptocurrency exchange) completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements or credible news sources. The IPO refers to the first sale of stock by Kraken to the public on any recognized stock exchange.
If Kraken merges with another entity, is acquired, or ceases to exist before the market resolves, the market will also resolve to "No".
This market will resolve early if Kraken completes an IPO by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is a consensus of credible reporting.
Summary of the market's published rules. The rules on Polymarket control settlement; check them there before relying on any outcome: open this market on Polymarket.
More odds by topic: IPOs odds
As of September 28, 2026 at 12:50 UTC, the leading outcome is June 30, 2027 at 81%, followed by March 31, 2027 at 65.5%, December 31, 2027 at 60.5%. The market has $1.61M in total volume and $0 in the last 24 hours.
The event's listed end date is January 1, 2028. Each outcome settles under the market's written rules, summarized on this page, which can differ from the end-date field.
They are the displayed prices of each outcome's YES share on Polymarket. A price of 60¢ implies roughly a 60% chance. This page refreshes the numbers twice a day, so they are not live quotes.
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