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Updated September 23, 2026 · Category: Politics & Elections · Market end date: October 5, 2026
As of September 23, 2026 at 15:49 UTC, the leading outcome is Rafael López Aliaga at 73%, followed by Carlos Ricardo Bruce Montes de Oca at 16.1%, Francis James Allison Oyague at 8.6%. The market has $189.5K in total volume and $23.0K in the last 24 hours.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rafael López Aliaga | 73% | -1.1 pts | $30.0K |
| Carlos Ricardo Bruce Montes de Oca | 16.1% | +2.4 pts | $55.8K |
| Francis James Allison Oyague | 8.6% | +5.1 pts | $22.5K |
| Susel Ana María Paredes Piqué | 3.1% | +1.2 pts | $8.5K |
| Samuel Marcos Daza Taype | 1.8% | +1.8 pts | $5.8K |
| Daniel Belizario Urresti Elera | 1.6% | -2.5 pts | $12.3K |
| Ricardo Pablo Belmont Cassinelli | 0.9% | -1.5 pts | $8.1K |
| Yehude Simón Munaro | 0.3% | -0.3 pts | $7.2K |
| Luis Isael Rubio Idrogo | <0.1% | — | $9.7K |
| Carlos Alberto Tejada Noriega | <0.1% | — | $3.4K |
| Oswaldo Hernán Vargas Cuéllar | <0.1% | — | $2.5K |
| Elizabeth María del Rosario León Chinchay | <0.1% | — | $2.4K |
| Rubén José Ramírez Mateo | <0.1% | — | $2.4K |
| Rubén Daniel Bonilla Espinoza | <0.1% | — | $2.2K |
| Sandro Caller Gutiérrez | <0.1% | — | $2.1K |
8 lower-priced outcomes are not shown; the full list is in the JSON data.
Total volume $189.5K · 24h volume $23.0K · Liquidity $640.6K. Prices are Polymarket YES-share prices read as probabilities; they are not executable quotes.
■ Rafael López Aliaga ■ Carlos Ricardo Bruce Montes de Oca ■ Francis James Allison Oyague · 30-day price history (12-hour points)
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The 2026 Lima, Peru mayoral election is currently scheduled to be held on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next Mayor of Lima as a result of this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder mayors appointed before the election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting; however, if there is any ambiguity in the results, this market will resolve according to official information from the Peruvian government, including the National Jury of Elections (Jurado Nacional de Elecciones, JNE, https://jne.gob.pe) and the National Office of Electoral Processes (Oficina Nacional de Procesos Electorales, ONPE, https://www.onpe.gob.pe/).
Summary of the market's published rules. The rules on Polymarket control settlement; check them there before relying on any outcome: open this market on Polymarket.
More odds by topic: World Elections odds
As of September 23, 2026 at 15:49 UTC, the leading outcome is Rafael López Aliaga at 73%, followed by Carlos Ricardo Bruce Montes de Oca at 16.1%, Francis James Allison Oyague at 8.6%. The market has $189.5K in total volume and $23.0K in the last 24 hours.
The event's listed end date is October 5, 2026. Each outcome settles under the market's written rules, summarised on this page, which can differ from the end-date field.
They are the displayed prices of each outcome's YES share on Polymarket. A price of 60¢ implies roughly a 60% chance. This page refreshes the numbers twice a day, so they are not live quotes.
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