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Updated September 27, 2026 · Category: Politics & Elections · Market end date: January 1, 2027
As of September 27, 2026 at 12:50 UTC, the leading outcome is By December 31 at 9.0%, followed by By September 30 at 0.8%. The market has $170.3K in total volume and $651 in the last 24 hours.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| By December 31 | 9.0% | +0.5 pts | $25.4K |
| By September 30 | 0.8% | -0.2 pts | $5.3K |
| By July 31 (settled) | 0.0% | — | $71.2K |
| By June 30 (settled) | 0.0% | -0.1 pts | $68.3K |
Total volume $170.3K · 24h volume $651 · Liquidity $27.1K. Prices are Polymarket YES-share prices read as probabilities; they are not executable quotes.
■ By December 31 ■ By September 30 · 30-day price history (12-hour points)
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This market will resolve to “Yes” if Giorgia Meloni ceases to be the Prime Minister of Italy for any period of time between December 5, 2025 and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Giorgia Melon's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
The resolution source for this market will be the government of Italy, however a consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.
Summary of the market's published rules. The rules on Polymarket control settlement; check them there before relying on any outcome: open this market on Polymarket.
More odds by topic: Politics odds · Geopolitics odds
As of September 27, 2026 at 12:50 UTC, the leading outcome is By December 31 at 9.0%, followed by By September 30 at 0.8%. The market has $170.3K in total volume and $651 in the last 24 hours.
The event's listed end date is January 1, 2027. Each outcome settles under the market's written rules, summarized on this page, which can differ from the end-date field.
They are the displayed prices of each outcome's YES share on Polymarket. A price of 60¢ implies roughly a 60% chance. This page refreshes the numbers twice a day, so they are not live quotes.
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