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Updated October 5, 2026 · Category: Politics & Elections · Market end date: November 4, 2026
As of October 5, 2026 at 12:50 UTC, Polymarket traders price Yes at 1.2% (No 98.8%), with $71.2K traded in total and $376 in the last 24 hours.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 1.2% | -1.1 pts | $71.2K |
| No | 98.8% | +1.1 pts | — |
Total volume $71.2K · 24h volume $376 · Liquidity $12.1K. Prices are Polymarket YES-share prices read as probabilities; they are not executable quotes.
■ Yes ■ No · 30-day price history (12-hour points)
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The Virginia General Assembly submitted a constitutional amendment to voters for a statewide referendum which, if passed, would allow new congressional districts, drawn in House Bill 29 (HB 29), to be used in the upcoming US House of Representatives midterm elections.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the revised congressional district map drawn in HB 29 are used to define the congressional districts of Virginia in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives midterm elections scheduled for November 3, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The release of official election materials from the State of Virginia, or an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting, demonstrating that the revised congressional district map drawn in HB 29 definitively will or will not be used to define the congressional districts of Virginia in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives midterm elections will be sufficient to resolve this market.
The primary resolution sources for this market are official information from the State of Virginia and a consensus of credible reporting.
Summary of the market's published rules. The rules on Polymarket control settlement; check them there before relying on any outcome: open this market on Polymarket.
More odds by topic: 2026 Midterms odds · Politics odds
As of October 5, 2026 at 12:50 UTC, Polymarket traders price Yes at 1.2% (No 98.8%), with $71.2K traded in total and $376 in the last 24 hours.
The event's listed end date is November 4, 2026. Each outcome settles under the market's written rules, summarized on this page, which can differ from the end-date field.
They are the displayed prices of each outcome's YES share on Polymarket. A price of 60¢ implies roughly a 60% chance. This page refreshes the numbers twice a day, so they are not live quotes.
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