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Updated October 5, 2026 · Category: Politics & Elections · Market end date: November 8, 2026
As of October 5, 2026 at 12:50 UTC, the leading outcome is Labour Party at 55.5%, followed by National Party at 43.5%, New Zealand First Party at 0.6%. The market has $62.8K in total volume and $191 in the last 24 hours.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| Labour Party | 55.5% | — | $20.0K |
| National Party | 43.5% | +1.5 pts | $24.9K |
| New Zealand First Party | 0.6% | — | $5.3K |
| Te Pāti Māori | 0.1% | — | $4.2K |
| Green Party | 0.1% | — | $4.2K |
| ACT New Zealand | 0.1% | — | $4.2K |
Total volume $62.8K · 24h volume $191 · Liquidity $187.9K. Prices are Polymarket YES-share prices read as probabilities; they are not executable quotes.
■ Labour Party ■ National Party ■ New Zealand First Party · 30-day price history (12-hour points)
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A general election is scheduled to be held in New Zealand on November 7, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives as a result of this election.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid part list votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed name appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the New Zealand House of Representatives in this election.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by New Zealand government sources such as the New Zealand Electoral Commission (https://elections.nz/).
Summary of the market's published rules. The rules on Polymarket control settlement; check them there before relying on any outcome: open this market on Polymarket.
More odds by topic: World Elections odds · Politics odds
As of October 5, 2026 at 12:50 UTC, the leading outcome is Labour Party at 55.5%, followed by National Party at 43.5%, New Zealand First Party at 0.6%. The market has $62.8K in total volume and $191 in the last 24 hours.
The event's listed end date is November 8, 2026. Each outcome settles under the market's written rules, summarized on this page, which can differ from the end-date field.
They are the displayed prices of each outcome's YES share on Polymarket. A price of 60¢ implies roughly a 60% chance. This page refreshes the numbers twice a day, so they are not live quotes.
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