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Updated October 12, 2026 · Category: Politics & Elections · Market end date: November 5, 2026
As of October 12, 2026 at 00:50 UTC, the leading outcome is Cilliers Brink at 60.5%, followed by Nasiphi Moya at 24%, Aaron Maluleka at 14.3%. The market has $24.6K in total volume and $445 in the last 24 hours.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cilliers Brink | 60.5% | +6.0 pts | $16.4K |
| Nasiphi Moya | 24% | +5.5 pts | $5.2K |
| Aaron Maluleka | 14.3% | -3.4 pts | $573 |
| Patience Moropa | 4.3% | +0.6 pts | $348 |
| Phumeza Mangcu | 3.6% | +0.6 pts | $98 |
| Chana Pilane-Majake | 3.4% | -0.2 pts | $107 |
| Tlangi Mogale | 2.6% | +0.1 pts | $830 |
| Kgoši Maepa | 0.7% | — | $159 |
| Omphile Maotwe | 0.5% | +0.2 pts | $942 |
Total volume $24.6K · 24h volume $445 · Liquidity $88.9K. Prices are Polymarket YES-share prices read as probabilities; they are not executable quotes.
■ Cilliers Brink ■ Nasiphi Moya ■ Aaron Maluleka · 30-day price history (12-hour points)
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Municipal elections are currently scheduled to be held in South Africa on November 4, 2026. Tshwane’s mayor will be elected by the newly constituted council at its inaugural meeting, which is expected to be held within 14 days of the municipal election, by November 18, 2026.
This market will resolve to the first individual who officially assumes the role of Mayor of Tshwane following the 2026 South African municipal elections.
A qualifying individual must be elected mayor by the Tshwane City Council. Temporary, interim, or placeholder mayors appointed before the election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of South Africa, including the Electoral Commission of South Africa (https://elections.org.za); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Summary of the market's published rules. The rules on Polymarket control settlement; check them there before relying on any outcome: open this market on Polymarket.
More odds by topic: World Elections odds · Politics odds
As of October 12, 2026 at 00:50 UTC, the leading outcome is Cilliers Brink at 60.5%, followed by Nasiphi Moya at 24%, Aaron Maluleka at 14.3%. The market has $24.6K in total volume and $445 in the last 24 hours.
The event's listed end date is November 5, 2026. Each outcome settles under the market's written rules, summarized on this page, which can differ from the end-date field.
They are the displayed prices of each outcome's YES share on Polymarket. A price of 60¢ implies roughly a 60% chance. This page refreshes the numbers twice a day, so they are not live quotes.
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